Netanyahu and Trump to Meet Amid Fragile Ceasefire Agreement

Yahoo

29-01-2025

From the The Morning Dispatch on The Dispatch
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On Saturday, four young Israeli women—all Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers captured by terrorists on October 7, 2023, and held as hostages ever since—were marched onto a stage in Gaza's Palestine Square in front of groups of Hamas fighters and Palestinian civilians. As Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag stood there, they linked arms and waved to the crowd as part of what they later explained as an effort to showcase their undefeated spirits and put a dent into the sense of sinisterness the armed Hamas fighters were clearly trying to project.
With the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas nearing its third week, the hostage-for-prisoner exchanges have continued apace. But the mere presence of the Hamas gunmen on Saturday as the main Palestinian force in the Gaza Strip served as a stark reminder of why a lasting peace is likely to remain elusive.
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, signed on January 15, outlined three six-week stages, the first of which is currently about a third complete. The parameters? A cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the edges of Gaza, the return of some Gazan civilians to the northern part of the enclave, and the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas' parade in Gaza City over the weekend was part of that exchange, the terms of which are lopsided in Hamas' favor, to say the least. If everything goes according to plan, the terrorist group will release 33 hostages—including children, female civilians and soldiers, and civilians over the age of 50—in exchange for hundreds upon hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are convicted terrorists.
The swaps are thus far occurring as expected, but that doesn't mean everyone is happy. Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, announced last Sunday he would resign from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Cabinet—where he served as national security minister—in protest against the deal. 'The deal that is taking shape is a reckless deal,' he said earlier this month, arguing it would 'erase the achievements of the war' by allowing Hamas to regroup and rebuild. Ben-Gvir doubled down on his resignation on Monday, saying he would only return to Netanyahu's government if the prime minister 'comes to his senses.'
Netanyahu is set to meet with President Donald Trump at the White House next week, and the ceasefire is certain to be the focus of their conversation. If the swaps continue to go relatively smoothly, the two sides are supposed to enter negotiations over the agreement's second phase no later than 16 days after the first began: this coming Saturday.
This phase will in theory include a mutual declaration of 'sustainable calm,' the exchange of all remaining living hostages by Hamas for some number of Palestinian prisoners, and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, in theory rendering the ceasefire permanent. The third stage would involve the return of dead Israeli hostages' bodies and the kickstarting of an international reconstruction effort in Gaza.
That said, reaching Phase 2 of the deal—let alone Phase 3—is far from a given. 'If Israel does agree to phase two of this ceasefire, I think there's a better than average chance that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu would collapse,' Jonathan Schanzer, the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, predicted in an interview with TMD.
With Netanyahu's majority in the Knesset already razor-thin, a further collapse in his support could doom his government. In addition to Ben-Gvir's withdrawal, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the far-right Religious Zionist Party, has also threatened to leave the coalition government over the deal—though he softened his stance earlier this week.
And it's not just far-right members of Netanyahu's coalition who are incensed at the prospect of Hamas remaining in power in Gaza—much of the Israeli public is too. But recent polling of Israelis has also found that nearly three-quarters of respondents—including a majority of Netanyahu's own supporters—favored some sort of ceasefire agreement in order to secure the return of the remaining hostages. The prime minister—well aware of the political realities—has therefore shifted his tone on the war somewhat in recent months, while publicly stressing throughout the ceasefire process that the IDF could proceed with operations at any point. 'We reserve the right to resume the war if necessary, with American support,' Netanyahu said in a TV address earlier this month, referring to the first phase of the deal as a 'temporary ceasefire.'
Hamas, of course, has its own reasons for coming to the negotiating table. 'What they want under Phase 2 is a decision undertaken by Israel to allow Hamas to exist,' Schanzer said. Like Hamas' show of force in Palestine Square, a formal ceasefire agreement that provides legitimacy to the Islamist terrorist organization and cements it as the undisputed power center in the Gaza Strip would be a major strategic victory for Israel's enemies.
The new Trump administration maintains that such an outcome would be unacceptable. On Saturday, President Trump himself floated a dramatic solution for Gaza: moving the enclave's civilian refugee population to Jordan, Egypt, or other Arab countries and 'just clean[ing] out' those who remain. He claimed he had spoken to Jordan's King Abdullah II about the idea and was going to talk to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi soon.
'You're talking about probably a million and half people, and we just clean out that whole thing,' Trump suggested. 'I'd rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where they can maybe live in peace for a change.' He doubled down when speaking to reporters on Air Force One Monday. 'You could get people living in areas that are a lot safer and maybe a lot better and maybe a lot more comfortable,' he said.
The president may, however, be too optimistic about his dealmaking prowess. Egypt and Jordan have long resisted taking in large numbers of Palestinian refugees; Jordan was destabilized by Palestinian nationalist agitation in the 1970s, and Palestinians still constitute a significant portion of the country's population. Since the war started, tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees have crossed into Egypt, where they face difficult living conditions and uncertain legal status.
Trump also has relatively sunny plans for how Gaza can be rebuilt after the war. 'You know, as a developer, it could be the most beautiful place—the weather, the water, the whole thing, the climate. It could be so beautiful,' he said during an October radio interview. '[It] could be better than Monaco.'
But according to Schanzer, two fundamental questions must be answered before any effort to rebuild Gaza begins: 'One: Are there patrons?' and 'Two: How can such an undertaking occur while Hamas is still in power?'
Finding patrons would require cooperation from Arab states, especially Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). As a precondition for their participation in the rebuilding process, the UAE has demanded reforms and a new prime minister for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank. They also want 'an explicit commitment to the two-state solution' from Israel.
But the UAE, like Israel, sees no role for Hamas in the future of Gaza. Leaders of the Gulf state do want the PA to be involved, unlike Israel. In remarks last month, Netanyahu described the Palestinian Authority as 'defective' and its establishment under the Oslo Accords as 'a terrible mistake.' He added that he wouldn't 'delude himself' into thinking it should govern Gaza after the war.
There are some signs, however, that Netanyahu's government might be singing a slightly different tune a few short weeks later. Last week, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar did not rule out the PA playing a role in postwar Gaza if it made some significant changes, such as ending its 'pay to slay' policy of paying the family members of those imprisoned, killed, or wounded for perpetrating violence against Israelis. 'The PA must stop educating children to hate, inciting against Israel, and conducting legal warfare against it,' he said. 'If they met these conditions, addressed these problems, and changed their attitudes, it would be a different Palestinian Authority, and then we could seriously discuss together a better future for both nations.'
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Do you expect the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will reach its second stage? Should it?