
NHL offseason trade board: An early look at the summer's top targets, from Kreider to Rossi to Ehlers
The NHL offseason is about to kick into high gear.
With June on the horizon, many teams have already gone through pro scouting meetings or are in the midst of conducting them. Next week, they'll all travel to Buffalo for the NHL Scouting Combine — an important event where general managers and agents start laying the groundwork for the player movement to come this summer.
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At a time when the salary cap ceiling is taking a significant jump to $95.5 million, the conditions are ripe for upheaval.
Flexibility is returning to the league's financial system, and teams have more needs collectively than the free-agent list offers solutions.
So there's every reason to expect a fertile trade market.
With that in mind, here's an early look at the names in play entering the summer.
Team: New York Rangers
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 22 goals, 30 points, 68 games
Age: 34
Contract: $6.5 million AAV through 2027; 15-team no-trade list
A fresh start seems in order here. The Rangers started shuttling veterans this season, including former captain Jacob Trouba, and general manager Chris Drury mentioned Kreider's availability in a memo circulated to his peers in November. While Kreider is coming off his lowest goal-scoring season in eight years, with 0.32 goals per game, his cap hit is moderate on a contract that runs through 2026-27. Kreider remains a strong skater who sits in the 90th percentile in speed bursts over 22 miles per hour, according to NHL Edge data. He maintains some say in the process courtesy of a 15-team no-trade clause.
Team: Minnesota Wild
Position: Center
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 24 goals, 60 points, 82 games
Age: 23
Contract: RFA coming off three-year, $2.59 million deal
Enormously skilled but on the lighter side at 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds, there is still some debate about what Rossi can be as an NHL player. It's pretty clear where the Wild are leaning after they gave him just 11 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs following a 60-point regular season. Now it's decision time with Rossi hitting restricted free agency and seeking a long-term contract. Minnesota has shopped Rossi before and appears unlikely to give him the kind of money a second-line center typically commands, so he's available to be had.
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Team: Buffalo Sabres
Position: Defense
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 7 goals, 38 points, 82 games
Age: 23
Contract: RFA coming off two-year, $7.7 million deal
The Sabres have a glut of defensemen on the left side, and the 23-year-old needs a new contract coming off his healthiest and most productive NHL season. That's why Buffalo has been gauging the trade market on the RFA. Byram is an elite skater who can log big minutes and still has his best years ahead of him, making him an intriguing option for teams looking for a blue-line upgrade.
Team: Calgary Flames
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 11 goals, 31 points, 81 games
Age: 28
Contract: $4.55 million AAV through 2026; six-team no-trade list
One year out from unrestricted free agency, the right-shot defenseman is expected to draw a crowd if he doesn't sign an extension with the Flames when he's eligible this summer. Andersson is an all-around defender who excels at winning puck battles and can jump into the attack. He brings highly valued off-ice intangibles, too, and recently wore the 'C' for Sweden on home ice at the World Championship. While there are some minor concerns — such as his foot speed and an ugly minus-38 rating this season — Andersson is a major asset for Calgary to peddle.
Team: Anaheim Ducks
Position: Goalie
2024-25 stats: 11-11-2, .911 save percentage, 2.77 GAA
Age: 31
Contract: $6.4 million AAV through 2027; 10-team no-trade list
The pickings are slim in the free-agent goaltending market and Gibson is coming off a bounce-back performance. While he may have relinquished the Ducks' No. 1 job to Lukáš Dostál, the veteran finished with a .911 save percentage and an impressive 15.3 goals saved above expected, according to MoneyPuck. Multiple teams have kicked tires on Gibson in recent years, with no trade materializing, but his contract looks more movable than ever with just two seasons remaining and the cap on the rise.
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Team: New York Rangers
Position: Defense
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 7 goals, 27 points, 74 games
Age: 25
Contract: RFA coming off two-year, $3.872 million deal
A confluence of factors has made Miller's future a little bit murky in New York. For starters, he's due a qualifying offer north of $4.6 million this summer and is eligible to hit unrestricted free agency as soon as 2026. Basically, this is a time when the Rangers would typically be looking to make a big investment in a 23-year-old player. However, the team has to be mindful of the salary cap, and Miller's game showed some real cracks this season with defensive lapses and a dip in production contributing to the struggles the Rangers' blue line endured. Still, he would be a prime trade asset due to his age, skating ability and elite physical tools.
Team: Buffalo Sabres
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 27 goals, 68 points, 77 games
Age: 23
Contract: RFA coming off three-year, $2.775 million deal
Another restricted free agent due for a hefty pay raise, there'd be strong trade value for the Sabres to mine if they moved off a winger who's twice crested 25 goals and finished the season tied for second on the team with 68 points. While Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams told reporters in March that Peterka is one of the team's 'core young guys,' it's not clear that he's willing to make that kind of commitment to the organization. Peterka is a candidate for an offer sheet if he's not traded before July 1.
The Canadiens currently own a pair of picks smack dab in the middle of the first round, and it won't be surprising if they don't end up using both of the Nos. 16 and 17 selections on June 27 in Los Angeles. Montreal has an array of prospects already in the pipeline and is open to moving a pick if it can be used to acquire a more immediate need for the current roster. Another center would be ideal.
Team: Nashville Predators
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 21 goals, 56 points, 78 games
Age: 34
Contract: $5.5 million AAV through 2029
What a difference a year makes. The Predators swung a mighty bat last July 1, landing Marchessault plus Steven Stamkos and Brady Skjei off the open market, and they already find themselves facing another roster renovation. The 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy winner can still put the puck in the net and boasts a resume that includes 102 career playoff games. What's more, his cap hit should become even more palatable as it ages.
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Team: Pittsburgh Penguins
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 11 goals, 53 points, 82 games
Age: 34
Contract: $10 million cap hit through 2027
The fit has never seemed quite right in Pittsburgh for the three-time Norris Trophy winner, who last appeared in the Stanley Cup playoffs six years ago. Karlsson will be 35 when next season begins, and it makes sense for him and the retooling Penguins to work together on finding him a new home. Karlsson's $10 million cap hit offers a significant barrier, even if Pittsburgh steps up with some retention. Perhaps there is some hope to be found in his strong performance for Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off over the winter for any team thinking about taking the plunge.
Team: New York Islanders
Position: Center
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 14 goals, 42 points, 79 games
Age: 32
Contract: $5 million AAV through 2026; 16-team no-trade list
Set to enter the final season of his contract, the veteran center is a candidate to find a new home with recently hired Islanders GM Mathieu Darche set to start turning over the team's underperforming roster. Pageau is elite in the faceoff circle and a strong penalty killer who is due just $3.5 million in actual salary next season. He does own a 16-team no-trade clause.
Team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 15 goals, 22 points, 69 games
Age: 23
Contract: RFA coming off one-year, $875,000 deal
It's 11 months on from his trade request and the 23-year-old forward is still looking for a change of scenery. Robertson once again found himself watching the Leafs' most important games from the press box, dressing for just three of 13 playoff games, and is a restricted free agent holding arbitration rights this summer. Robertson has a wicked release and high work rate, scoring 29 goals across the past two seasons despite seeing limited power-play time.
Team: Chicago Blackhawks
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 2 goals, 19 points, 68 games
Age: 32
Contract: $4.4 million AAV through 2026; 10-team no-trade list
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Big, strong and experienced, Murphy posted good defensive results under less-than-favorable conditions with the Blackhawks this season. The right shot comes with an expiring contract that should be fairly easy to move, particularly in light of how well he compares to this summer's free-agent class. This is a time of transition in Chicago so roster flexibility is paramount.
Team: St. Louis Blues
Position: Left wing
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 18 goals, 50 points, 82 games
Age: 33
Contract: $6.5 million AAV through 2028; full no-trade list becomes 15-team no-trade list on July 1
There was plenty of discussion around Schenn leading up to the trade deadline, but the Blues captain told the team his preference was to stay at that time. Could that change? Schenn's full no-trade clause is set to convert to a 15-team no-trade list this summer, which shifts more leverage to the front office if it chooses to reengage the market on the veteran center. The Blues set a high price on Schenn in talks last season. He remains a productive point producer who brings value at both ends of the ice.
Team: Pittsburgh Penguins
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 31 goals, 65 points, 71 games
Age: 33
Contract: $5.125 million AAV through 2028; no-movement clause expires June 30
The Penguins won't be looking to move a highly dependable, low-maintenance winger with ties to their back-to-back Stanley Cup years. However, with Rust's no-movement clause set to expire on June 30, it's possible — if not likely — that the 33-year-old will be one of their most sought-after assets. Rust is coming off a 31-goal, 65-point season and remains an above-average skater who plays an effective two-way game. An added bonus comes from the fact that the actual money owing over the final three years of his contract is below his already-affordable cap number.
Team: Columbus Blue Jackets
Position: Goalie
2024-25 stats: 26-21-5, .892 save percentage, 3.18 GAA
Age: 31
Contract: $5.4 million through 2027; 10-team no-trade list
Merzlikins has seemingly been on thin ice in Columbus for a couple of years now, with open discussions about a trade dating back at least 16 months. He's consistently struggled to perform up to the level of his contract, which is why colleague Aaron Portzline identified a goaltending overhaul as an organizational priority in Columbus this summer. Amid a muddled goaltending market, Merzlikins is available. He'll also likely be a buyout candidate if a trade doesn't emerge.
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Team: Boston Bruins
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 33 goals, 57 points, 77 games
Age: 26
Contract: RFA coming off two-year, $4 million deal
Geekie finds himself in a prime negotiating position, coming off a 33-goal season and sitting one year away from unrestricted free agency. Cha-ching. While there's every expectation that he and the Bruins will engage in negotiations on a contract extension, a move remains a possibility if they aren't able to find common ground. Geekie turns 27 this summer and Boston already started accumulating future assets with an aggressive sale ahead of the trade deadline.
Team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 1 goal, 7 points, 19 games
Age: 33
Contract: $2.1 million AAV through 2026
A reliable player who can be trusted across 200 feet, Järnkrok is coming off a season where he struggled to find any kind of rhythm after not being healthy enough to play before March. Still, he's a low-risk bet with a strong track record of consistent play and favorable contract status. Once his $1.325 million bonus is paid on July 1, Järnkrok will be owed just $775,000 in salary next season — making him the equivalent of a league-minimum player.
Team: Montreal Canadiens
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
2024-25 stats: 2 goals, 4 points, 7 games
Age: 22
Contract: $875,000 AAV through 2026 (RFA)
The Canadiens' cupboards are overflowing with promising young defensemen, which makes the path to the NHL roster a little crowded. Call it a good problem to have. Mailloux played a big role for the AHL's Laval Rocket this season and got a brief taste of NHL experience with the Habs, scoring twice in seven games. While he's certainly not a player Montreal has to move, the belief is he could be had in the right deal.
Team: Winnipeg Jets
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
2024-25 stats: 24 goals, 63 points, 69 games
Age: 29
Contract: UFA coming off seven-year, $42 million deal
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With Ehlers set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, there may be some desire from a suitor to get a jump on the market if he signals an intention to part ways with the Winnipeg Jets before the end of June. There aren't many pure goal-scorers among this crop of free agents. And even though Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff indicated that he'd like to make Ehlers a 'Jet for life,' the early indications are that he's going to have a difficult time doing so.
Note: Contract terms via PuckPedia.
(Top photos of Marco Rossi and Chris Kreider: Sean M. Haffey and Rich Lam / Getty Images)
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UFC 316 Fight Card: Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia and Sean O'Malley face ... More off during the UFC 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC) Saturday's UFC 316 fight card features two bantamweight title fights at the top of the marquee. In the main event, men's UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili meets the man he took the title from, Sean O'Malley, in a rematch. Meanwhile, in the UFC 316 PPV card co-headline, Julianna Pena begins her second stint as the women's 135-pound champ against former PFL lightweight champion Kayla Harrison. Also appearing on the main card is high-profile free agent signing Patchy Mix. Mix faces Mario Bautista in a bantamweight bout. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks, and prop bets for the UFC 316 PPV card, which takes place on Saturday, June 7 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The UFC 316 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass. NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia and Sean O'Malley face ... More off during the UFC 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC) Merab Dvalishvili (19-4), a long-time training partner of former UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling stepped into the spotlight of the promotion's 135-pound division in September 2014 when he scored a unanimous decision win over then-champion Sean O'Malley in the main event of UFC 306. The 33-year-old Dvalishvili joined the UFC in 2017 as much-hyped prospect. At the time, Dvalishvili was 7-2 and had won and defended the Ring of Combat bantamweight crown. Dvalishvili did not have a smooth start to his UFC run, losing his first two fights. Falling to Frankie Saenz by decision, and the second, to Ricky Simon, via submission. In September 2018, things clicked in place for the Serra-Longo Fight Team product, and he has not lost since. Heading into UFC 306, Dvalishvili was on a 10-fight winning streak. Prior to his matchup against O'Malley, Dvalishvili had defeated Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. The win over O'Malley stretched his winning streak to 11 straight. Dvalishvili extended that streak to 12 when he defended his title with a unanimous decision win over the previously unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311. Sean O'Malley (18-2-0-1) was 7-0 with six finishes when he got the chance to fight for a UFC contract on the first season of Dana White's Contender Series back in 2017. O'Malley, scored a first-round knockout, and a UFC contract that night. He went 4-0 in his first bouts with the promotion, picking up three fight-night bonus awards for his efforts, including a brutal one-punch KO win over UFC veteran Eddie Wineland at UFC 250. The win over Wineland put O'Malley at No. 14 in the UFC bantamweight rankings and got him a fight against Marlon 'Chito' Vera. Vera won that fight by TKO, handing O'Malley the only defeat on his record. The loss to Vera knocked O'Malley out of the rankings, but he bounced back in his next fight, knocking out Thomas Almeida and earning another fight-night bonus in the process. He followed that win with a TKO win over Kris Moutinho. Despite those back-to-back wins, O'Malley remained unranked when he next stepped into the Octagon for a December 2021 matchup against Raulian Paiva. O'Malley wrapped that fight up with a knockout at the 4:42 mark of the first round. That victory put O'Malley back in the rankings. O'Malley's next bout ended in a no contest, when an eye poke in the second round left Pedro Munhoz unable to continue. Then, in October 2022, O'Malley was matched up with former UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan. He entered that contest as the +230 underdog to the -275 ex-champ. The pair went the three-round distance, with O'Malley getting the split decision nod. That victory set up O'Malley to face Sterling in August 2023. O'Malley has not fought since his loss to Dvalishvili. He is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings. When the betting odds opened for UFC 316, the defending champ was a -325 betting favorite over the former champ. Today, Dvalishvili is listed at -275, while O'Malley comes in at +225. O'Malley has picked up 93 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the handle. Yes, O'Malley has the striking to catch Dvalishvili and turn out his lights, but let's remember, in their first meeting, O'Malley only managed to throw 89 significant strikes. In his win over Vera, O'Malley attempted a whopping 356 significant strikes. The difference between Dvalishvili and Vera was pressure. Vera was happy to stand with O'Malley, while Dvalishvili used his chain wrestling and forward pressure to put his opponent on the back foot and keep him there for almost the entire 25 minutes of that meeting, landing six takedowns on 15 attempts and racking up 10:03 of control time. Simply put, I don't think O'Malley and his team can put together a game plan that will allow the former champ to avoid the pressure of the current champ while also accumulating enough damage to sway the judges in O'Malley's favor. The betting pick is for Dvalishvili to grind out a decision win. For those looking for value on an upset, the pick is O'Malley via knockout, but be sure to place that wager in an amount you're willing to lose. NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison face off during the ... More UFC 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC) Julianna Pena (12-5) earned her UFC contract by winning Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. A member of Team Tate, Pena knocked out Jessica Rakoczy in the first round of their November 2013 matchup. The win moved Pena's record to 5-2. Pena ran off three victories after that, beating Milana Dudieva, Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano before Valentina Shevchenko ended her winning streak with a January 2017 armbar submission. In October 2017 Pena announced her pregnancy. When she returned to action in July 2019, Pena defeated Nicco Montano by decision. A submission loss to De Randamie in October 2020 followed. In January 2021, Pena submitted Sara McMann. Pena, sitting at No. 3 in the women's bantamweight rankings, earned a shot at Amanda Nunes and her bantamweight title in December 2021. She entered that contest as a -650 underdog to the champ, who was the -1000 betting favorite. In one of the more shocking upsets in UFC title fight history, Pena submitted Nunes in the second round, ending the Brazilian's title reign. Pena's time at the top of the division was short, as Nunes won their July 2022 rematch by decision. Pena was set to face Nunes in a trilogy bout at UFC 289, but an injury knocked the former champ from that scrap. Nunes defeated Pena's replacement, Irene Aldana, on that card and then retired. When Pena returned to action it was at UFC 307 where she defeated then-champion Raquel Pennington via split decision. She makes her first defense of that belt at UFC 316. A two-time Olympic gold medal winner in judo (2012 and 2016), Kayla Harrison (18-1) made her MMA debut in the 155-pound division with PFL in 2018. Harrison ran over her first six opponents, picking up three submissions, two knockouts, and a decision before winning the women's lightweight title by defeating Larissa Pacheco by decision. In November 2020, Harrison defeated Courtney King by TKO in a 145-pound scrap. Shen then moved back to 155 pounds. In 2021, Harrison won the PFL 155-pound tournament with a submission win over Taylor Guardado. By 2022, Harrison had amassed a 15-0 record. However, her unbeaten ended in the finals of the 2022 PFL lightweight tourney when Pacheco scored a unanimous decision win over Harrison. The ex-champ fought once more for the PFL, beating former UFC fighter Aspen Ladd via decision in November 2023 in a 150-pound catchweight fight. In January 2024, the UFC announced it had signed Harrison and that her promotional debut would take place in the 135-pound weight class. Harrison impressed in that performance, submitting former UFC women's bantamweight champion Holly Holm by submission in the second round at UFC 400. In her next, and most recent, outing, Harrison defeated Ketlen Vieira via unanimous decision. Harrison is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC women's 135-pound rankings. When the betting odds opened for the UFC 316 co-main event, Pena was a +500 underdog to the -700 Harrison. Today, Harrison is the -750 favorite over the champ, who is the +525 betting underdog. Pena has earned 89 percent of the bets, while 63 percent of the money is on Harrison. Pena is a tough fighter, and that toughness will be tested on Saturday when she faces Harrison at UFC 316. The concern on the Harrison side of the equation is her ability to make 135 pounds and rehydrate and recover. The weight cut will be tough, there's no doubt about that, but Harrison has been a high-level athlete for a long while, and she knows her body and how far she can push herself. That's a plus in this matchup; it could also mean that she will pace herself against Pena so that she does not overextend herself and run out of gas. Harrison is the better athlete and has more routes to victory than Pena. The betting pick is a Harrison win, either by late submission or decision. With the odds being what they are, the value pick is Pena to win via upset, but that's a wager that one should be careful in making. NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer face off during the UFC ... More 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC) Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0-1) has been with the UFC since April 2013, when he won Season 17 of 'The Ultimate Fighter' with a split decision over Uriah Hall. The victory over Hall put Gastelum's professional record at 7-0. Gastelum dropped to welterweight for his next UFC fight. He remained unbeaten through 2014, losing his first fight in January 2015 when Tyron Woodley defeated him via split decision. Gastelum missed weight for the Woodley matchup, coming in at 180. It was not his first issue on the scale as a member of the UFC roster. He also came in heavy for his June 2014 win over Nico Musoke, weighing 172.75. Weight issues have plagued Gastelum throughout his UFC career, as he has struggled at times to make welterweight and middleweight. Gastelum's career has been up and down since his loss to Woodley. Since that 2015 clash, his record stands at 8-8-0-1, and he has not won more than two fights in a row. The 33-year-old is a very talented fighter, but his struggles to make weight and consistency issues inside the cage have hurt him. The high point of Gastelum's career is his 2019 interim UFC middleweight title fight opposite Israel Adesanya, a bout that recently enshrined the two men in the UFC Hall of Fame. Gastelum has a 3-6 record dating back to April 2019, when he faced Adesanya. He is coming off a June 2024 unanimous decision win over Daniel Rodriguez. Joe Pyfer (13-3) had a first go at gaining a UFC contract in 2020 at a Dana White Contender Series event. At the time, the 23-year-old was 7-1. His only career loss to that point was a second-round submission setback to Jhonoven Pati under the Ring of Combat banner. Pyfer lost the ROC middleweight championship in that outing. Pyfer faced Dustin Stoltzfus on that DWCS card. Pyfer looked good in the early going of that matchup, walking down his foe and looking to land powerful strikes. With a bit over two minutes left in the first round, Pyfer scored an easy takedown on Stoltzfus, who calmly looked to set up a submission while Pyfer did his best to create openings to land heavy ground strikes. With the clock ticking down, Stoltzfus stood and went for a slam takedown. Pyfer landed with all his weight on his extended right arm, causing an injury that ended the fight. Pyfer recovered from that injury, but he did not fight again until he earned a first-round knockout win over Austin Trotman on a Cage Fury fight card. The UFC gave Pyfer a second opportunity to earn a contract in July 2022. Pyfer faced Ozzy Diaz on a DWCS card. Pyfer was a +100 betting underdog at that event. Pyfer didn't mess around on the feet against Diaz. He scored a takedown inside the first minute and then worked for a submission until Diaz reversed Pyfer with two minutes left in the round. Diaz could not keep Pyfer on the mat, as Pyfer worked back to his feet, where he scored with low kicks and an effective jab. In the second stanza, Pyfer pressured Diaz and then, showing off his power, ended the fight with a powerful left hook that put his opponent on his back. In awarding Pyfer a UFC contract, UFC CEO Dana White said, "If you want to get into the UFC, and this is where you want to be, act like Joe Pyfer. Okay? Be Joe Pyfer. Be excited to be here. Be fired up to fight. Try to finish the fight. Try to win. Be Joe Pyfer, and you will get into the UFC." Pyfer put together a 3-0 run under the UFC banner between September 2022 and October 2023, scoring three stoppages and two 'Performance of the Night' bonuses. Seeing promise in Pyfer, the UFC booked him in a main event against veteran Jack Hermansson in February 2024. Pyfer was a favorite in that matchup, but he fell short, as Hermansson's veteran skills showed gaps in Pyfer's game. Pyfer rebounded from that loss with a first-round knockout win over Marc-André Barriault at UFC 303. The odds have held on this matchup with Gastelum at +310 and Pyfer at -400. Bettors are siding with the veteran. Gastelum has 75 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the handle. Gastelum has one of the best chins in the business, and if Pyfer gets too aggressive and thinks he will be able to put his opponent away based on his power, things might get tricky for the younger fighter. Pyfer's best bet is not to chase the knockout here but to use his power to rack up damage while being sound defensively. The betting pick is for Joe Pyfer to beat Kelvin Gastelum by decision. However, for those who do not have faith in Pyfer's fight IQ, a Gastelum upset win via decision is a value betting pick to think about. NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Mario Bautista and Patchy Mix face off during the UFC ... More 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC) Patchy Mix (20-1) comes too the UFC following his release by PFL. The 31-year-old Mix is riding a seven-fight undefeated streak. He won the interim Bellator bantamweight title in April 2023 with a knockout victory over Raufeon Stots. Then, in November 2023, Mix unified the Bellator 135-pound titles with a submission victory over Sergio Pettis. In his most recent outing, Mix defended his crown with a split decision win over Magomed Magomedov in May 2024. Mix's only professional defeat came in September 2020 when Juan Archuleta defeated him via unanimous decision in a contest for the vacant Bellator bantamweight crown. Mario Bautista (15-2) has been with the UFC since 2019. The 31-year-old opened his UFC run with a 2-2 record, but he is unbeaten since early 2022, with a run of seven straight wins. In his most recent outing, Bautista defeated Jose Aldo via split decision at UFC 307 in October 2024. The opening odds for this matchup had Mix as the -175 favorite over Bautista, who came in at +145. Today, Mix is the -200 betting favorite and Bautista is the +165 betting underdog. Mix has 51 percent of the action and 75 percent of the handle. Mix enters UFC 316 coming off a long layoff. His last bout took place in May 2024 when he went five rounds in beating Magomed Magomedov in defense of his Bellator bantamweight belt. When you combine that layoff with the fact that Mix is taking this fight on short notice, there is some room for concern when it comes to Mix's fitness level. However, Mix and his team know how important this fight is to his career and future UFC prospects, so I believe he will be ready for his Octagon debut. I expect Bautista to move forward and to look to overwhelm Mix with striking. However, that pressure could allow Mix to implement his game plan of getting the fight to mat and working his ground skills (Mix has 13 submission wins). The betting pick is for Mix to win via decision, with a chance of picking up a submission. NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 05: (L-R) Opponents Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland face off during the ... More UFC 316 press conference at Prudential Center on June 05, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC) Vicente Luque (23-10-1) enters UFC 316 as the No. 14 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings. The 33-year-old has been with the UFC since July 2015. Luque had some good winning streaks in his early days with the UFC, putting together winning runs of four fights, six fights, and four fights, but whenever he stepped up to face top-level competition, he faltered. The opponents who ended Luque's winning runs were Leon Edwards, Stephen Thompson, and Belal Muhammad. Luque is 2-2 since losing to Muhammad in 2022. He has wins over Rafael dos Anjos and Themba Gorimbo, while his losses have come via knockout against Geoff Neal and Joaquin Buckley. In his most recent outing, Luque earned a technical submission stoppage over Gorimbo. That fight took place in December. Kevin Holland (27-13-0-1) was 12-3 when he earned his shot at a UFC contract on a Dana White's Contender Series card in June 2018. Despite getting a win, UFC CEO Dana White did not offer Holland a contract. However, Holland got the chance to fight for the UFC in August 2018 when Thiago Santos needed a short-notice opponent. Holland has been one of the more active UFC competitors since losing that contest by decision, fighting at middleweight and welterweight. Holland followed the loss to Santos with an 8-1 run, a stretch that included five victories between May 2020 and December 2020. His last win of that run was a 'Performance of the Night' bonus-winning knockout of ex-Strikeforce champion Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza. Holland's career has been up-and-down since the highlight-reel win over Souza. He has a 5-7-0-1 record since then, never winning, or losing, more than two fights in a row. Holland is 2-2 in his past four outings with a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk, a corner stoppage TKO loss to Roman Dolidze, a submission setback to Reinier de Ridder, and most recently, a decision win over Gunnar Nelson in March. When the lines opened on this contest, Holland was a -200 favorite over the +165 Luque. The betting line has moved on this one. Today, Holland is -275 to Luque's +220. Luque has earned 73 percent of the bets, while Holland has picked up 61 percent of the handle. Holland is a talented fighter, but the problem with Holland is his consistency. At points, it seems as if Holland is more interested in booking fights and earning a paycheck than he is interested in being competitive in those bouts. And while Luque has had his ups and downs, he seems to take his career more seriously than Holland. Holland has an advantage in height and reach in this bout, and if he can use those strengths, he has a good chance of picking up the win. However, Luque is effective in spots where Holland struggles, mainly in takedown defense. The betting pick in this bout is to go where there is value, and that is Luque to use his wrestling to grind out a decision win over Holland. Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO or DQ +450 O'Malley by Decision/Technical Decision +600 Patchy Mix by Submission +200 Merab Dvalishvili by Submission +800 O'Malley by Submission +2500 *All bets and odds via BetMGM Saturday, June 7, 2025 Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey Main Card: ESPN+ PPV Preliminary Card: ESPN and ESPN+ Early Prelims: UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ Early Prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET Main Card: 10:00 p.m. ET Stay tuned for more coverage from the UFC 316 fight card. Including live UFC 316 results, reactions, recaps and video highlights during Saturday's event.


Forbes
9 minutes ago
- Forbes
What To Know About The IRS's $4 Billion Tax Assessment On Yum! Brands
KFC Taco Bell (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images) The IRS has assessed $4 billion in taxes, penalties, and interest on Yum! Brands. The issue stems from a tax-deferred reorganization in 2014. Yum! Brands is now suing to prevent the IRS from collecting these funds. M&A is often among the most complicated tax issues large corporations face, which can often lead to uncertainty and scrutiny from the IRS. In this article, I discuss the Yum! Brand corporation, what happened in 2014, and why they are facing such a steep tax penalty now over a decade later. Yum! Brands is the parent company of KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill. As noted by The Washington Post, this corporation spun off from PepsiCo in 1997 to become among the largest set of restaurant chains in the United States and the world. While it currently features those three staples, the corporation has also previously held other chains, such as A&W and Long John Silvers. Yum! Brands has been known to be innovative by having combination restaurants. In these situations, customers can order from a KFC or Taco Bell (or both) at the same location. What makes Yum! Brands particularly impactful is their international appeal. As stated on the Yum! Brands website, the brands total over 61,000 locations and can be seen in 155 countries. According to CNN, KFC has blossomed to become an international staple in countries like Japan, where people often have KFC as their Christmas dinner. Yum! Brands is also no stranger to tax-related news. In early 2025, the company announced a different restructuring. While the company is famously headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky (hence, Kentucky Fried Chicken), Fortune reported that it will be relocating to Plano, TX, due to, among other things, taxes. Kentucky is a state that levies a corporate income tax (5% in 2025). Meanwhile, Texas famously has a 0% tax rate on corporate profits. Individual income tax is also not levied in Texas. Newsweek suggests that Texas has become a bit of a tax haven for new corporate headquarters such as Tesla, Toyota, Charles Schwab, Chevron, and now Yum! Brands. Prior to 2014, Yum! Brands was made up of separate legal entities based on brand and region. For example, there were separate legal entities for KFC Asia and KFC Europe. According to court filings, On November 30, 2013, Yum! Brands publicly announced a corporate reorganization. In this reorganization, the company would no longer be broken out into segments based on geography. Instead, it would focus its organization based on brands (i.e., KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut). It would also have separate divisions for China and India. The goal of this reorganization was to drive growth. To help facilitate the reorganization, the new subsidiaries issued stock in exchange for stock in the previous subsidiary. This stock for stock reorganization often falls under the Internal Revenue Code Section 368(a)(1)(B), which allows for the acquisition of a corporation solely in exchange for all or part of its voting stock. As long as all of the conditions are met, the Yum! Brand legal entities can exchange the stock without recognizing a gain on the appreciated value of the stock. The conditions for this type of reorganization are as follows: Reorganizations under Section 368 are valuable for a company like Yum! Brands because it wishes to restructure the company's organization to enhance future profits. In a normal transaction where Yum! Brands were selling its stock to another company, Yum! Brands would have a gain (or loss) on the appreciated (depreciated) value of the stock. However, Section 368 allows companies to meet certain conditions to defer the gain to a future period. Importantly, companies still have to recognize a gain on the stock's appreciated value, but this gain will not typically happen until the company ultimately disposes of it. In this case, Yum! Brands thought that the conditions under Section 368(a)(1)(B) were met, which would defer the gain, allowing the reorganization to make more sense from a financial perspective. In Yum! Brand's 2024 10-K financial statements, the company notes the following: As reported by Bloomberg Tax, this disagreement comprises over $4 billion dollars in damages: the $2.1 billion in taxes that the IRS believes Yum! Brands should have paid during their reorganization in 2014, $418 million in underpayment penalties and over $1.5 billion in interest on the money that has not yet been paid to the taxing authority. $4 billion is a large assessment for any firm. However, to put it into context, Yum! Brands in 2024 had a pre-tax income of $1.9 billion and paid income taxes of $414 million on that income. Thus, a tax bill of over $4 billion is astronomical for even a company of this size. NRN reports that the disagreement stems from Yum! Brands believe to have met all of the requirements under Section 368 for the reorganization to be tax-deferred, whereas the taxing authority believes that these matters were not all addressed and initiates billions of dollars of income by way of a sale of appreciated value of stock. NRN also reports that Yum! Brands has taken this matter to court and appeals court but was unsuccessful. In turn, Law360 reports that Yum! Brands have taken the IRS to court to sue them over the collections of this $4 billion. While the matter is still uncertain, many in the M&A tax space continue to watch this saga unfold since it represents a significant assessment being levied against some of the U.S.'s most recognizable restaurant brands.


Forbes
12 minutes ago
- Forbes
The AI Paradox: When More AI Means Less Impact
Young business man with his face passing through the screen of a laptop on binary code background AI is in the news every day. On the one hand, this highlights the vertiginous speed at which the field is developing. On the other, it creates a sense saturation and angst that makes business organizations either drop the subject altogether or go at it full throttle without much discernment. Both approaches will lead to major misses in the inevitable AI-fication of business. In this article, I'll explore what happens when a business goes down the AI rabbit hole without a clear business objective and a solid grasp of the available alternatives. If you have attended any AI conference lately, chances are that, by the end, you thought your business was dangerously behind. Many of these events, even if not on purpose, can leave you with the feeling that you need to deploy AI everywhere and automate everything to catch up. If you've succumbed to this temptation, you most likely found out that is not the right move. Two years into the generative AI revolution, a counterintuitive truth is emerging from boardrooms to factory floors. Companies pursuing 100% AI automation are often seeing diminished returns, while those treating AI as one element in a broader, human-centered workflow are capturing both cost savings and competitive advantages. The obvious truth is already revealing itself: AI is just one more technology at our disposal, and just like every other new technology, everyone is trying to gain first-move advantage, which inevitably creates chaos. Those who see through and beyond said chaos are building the foundations of a successful AI-assisted business. The numbers tell a story that contradicts the automation evangelists. Three in four workers say AI tools have decreased their productivity and added to their workload, according to a recent UpWork survey of 2,500 respondents across four countries. Workers report spending more time reviewing AI-generated content and learning tool complexities than the time these tools supposedly save. Even more revealing: while 85% of company leaders are pushing workers to use AI, nearly half of employees using AI admitted they have no idea how to achieve the productivity gains their employers expect. This disconnect isn't just corporate misalignment—it's a fundamental misunderstanding of how AI creates value. The companies winning the AI game aren't those deploying the most algorithms. They're the ones who understand that intelligent automation shouldn't rely on AI alone. Instead, successful organizations are orchestrating AI within broader process frameworks where human expertise guides strategic decisions while AI handles specific, well-defined tasks. A good AI strategy always revolves around domain experts, not the other way around. Consider how The New York Times approached AI integration. Rather than replacing journalists with AI, the newspaper introduced AI tools for editing copy, summarizing information, and generating promotional content, while maintaining strict guidelines that AI cannot draft full articles or significantly alter journalism. This measured approach preserves editorial integrity while amplifying human capabilities. AI should be integrated strategically and operationally into entire processes, not deployed as isolated solutions to be indiscriminately exploited hoping for magic. Research shows that 60% of business and IT leaders use over 26 systems in their automation efforts, and 42% cite lack of integration as a major digital transformation hurdle. The most effective AI implementations focus on task-specific applications rather than general automation. Task-specific models offer highly specialized solutions for targeted problems, making them more efficient and cost-effective than general-purpose alternatives. Harvard Business School research involving 750 Boston Consulting Group consultants revealed this precision matters enormously. While consultants using AI completed certain tasks 40% faster with higher quality, they were 19 percentage points less likely to produce correct answers on complex tasks requiring nuanced judgment. This 'jagged technological frontier' demands that organizations implement methodical test-and-learn approaches rather than wholesale AI adoption. Harvard Business Review research confirms that AI notoriously fails at capturing intangible human factors essential for real-world decision-making—ethical considerations, moral judgments, and contextual nuances that guide business success. The companies thriving in 2025 aren't choosing between humans and machines. They're building hybrid systems where AI automation is balanced with human interaction to maintain stakeholder trust and capture value that neither could achieve alone. The mantra, 'AI will replace your job,' seems to consistently reveal a timeless truth: everything that should be automated will be automated, not everything than can be automated will. The Path Forward The AI paradox isn't a failure of technology—it's a lesson in implementation strategy. Organizations that resist the allure of complete automation and instead focus on thoughtful integration, task-specific deployment, and human-AI collaboration aren't just avoiding the productivity trap. They're building sustainable competitive advantages that compound over time. The question isn't whether your organization should use AI. It's whether you'll fall into the 'more AI' trap or master the art of 'smarter AI'—where less automation actually delivers more impact.