Global Fertility Crisis Can't Be Solved With Financial Perks, UN Report Says
Solving the global fertility crisis would require creating conditions that support parenting instead of pushing economic incentives, according to a new UN report.
A new UN Population Fund study argued that efforts by many countries to boost their population with family bonuses or fertility targets do not always have a long-term impact and could even backfire.
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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Output of key food commodities 'on course for new records'
The global production of core agricultural commodities, including rice, maize, sorghum and oilseeds, are expected to reach 'record levels', according to research from the FAO. The UN agency's latest assessments indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for global food commodity markets, with production anticipated to increase across all commodities, except sugar. Global wheat production is forecast to increase 'modestly' in the coming year while per capita food consumption declines, according to the biannual publication. Output gains are anticipated to be driven by a 13% increase in the EU 'owing to a weather-driven upturn in yields, as well as a potential all-time record harvest in India driven by increased planting areas', the FAO said. Coarse grain production is expected to increase by 3.4% to a 'record level', buoyed by 'solid prospects' in Brazil, the EU and especially the US, which is forecast to boost maize output by 6% mostly due to an expansion in sowings. More favourable weather ought to 'lift' maize production in southern Africa as well, the report said. FAO also released its first forecast for world rice production, anticipating a 0.9% annual increase to reach a new 'record high' of 551.5 million tonnes, due mostly to 'anticipated production increases in Asia'. The UN agency's report said global food production remains 'vulnerable' to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, and economic conditions. 'While agricultural production trends appear solid, drivers that could negatively impact global food security are increasing,' FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said. International rice trade is forecast to expand by 1.4% in 2025 to reach a high of 60.5 million tonnes, fuelled by 'strong demand from Africa and rising exports from India and South America'. Global per capita food consumption of rice is expected to increase globally, with a particularly 2% increase in 'Low-Income Food Deficit Countries'. The Food Outlook also presented FAO's updated figure for the global food import bill (FIB) in 2024, which is estimated to have risen by 3.6% from the previous year to nearly $2.1trn. This increase was primarily driven by a 29.3% surge in import costs for coffee, tea, cocoa and spices, an 8.1% increase in the import bill for fruits and vegetables, as well as a 5.6% rise for meat products. By contrast, the import bill for other food commodity groups declined, including a 4.6% decrease for cereals. In 2025, trade tensions and policy uncertainty will likely affect the global food import bill by influencing import volumes and prices, especially for sensitive products like tropical beverages and animal goods, according to the report. The impact will vary by country and commodity, depending on factors like import dependency and availability of alternatives. Adverse weather events and supply chain disruptions may further drive up import costs. The FAO Food Outlook includes a special feature examining how high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) is impacting the poultry sector around the world. Last month, Brazil – the world's third-largest poultry meat producer accounting for nearly 30% of global exports – reported its first case of HPAI on a commercial poultry farm. Global hen egg production reached 91 million tonnes – or approximately 1.7 trillion eggs – in 2023, with China contributing 38%, followed by India and the US at about 8% and 7%, respectively. Although only 2.2 million tonnes are typically traded, that volume nearly doubled in 2024. As a result, egg price volatility 'remains an issue'. HPAI has 'escalated into one of the most significant biological threats to the global poultry sector', the FAO said, affecting over 173 million chickens in the US since 2022, with costs exceeding $1.4bn by late 2024. The egg-laying sector is particularly impacted due to its longer production cycle, unlike broiler chickens raised in closed systems. "Output of key food commodities 'on course for new records' – FAO" was originally created and published by Just Food, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
7 hours ago
- Bloomberg
Pimco Sees 'Fragmentation Era' in Annual Secular Outlook
00:00 A new secular outlook. Always a fantastic team effort from you and the team every single every single June, I believe. Yeah, the era of fragmentation. Let's just start that before we get into the debt dynamics. What is that and what does it mean for the path forward? Very straightforward. The world's fragmenting into regional security alliances, trading blocs, currency zones. The process has been underway for a while, but it's accelerated under Trump 2.0. We point out it has important implications for the economy and markets. We see business cycles being amplified, markets being more volatile. But importantly, there are opportunities for investors in the fragmentation era to identify what's driving returns and repricing risk. Well, let's identify what the economic characteristics are of the era of fragmentation and what it means for the so-called long bond. Does it mean a less dependable bond bed for a 30 year maturity? Well, we're not sure. We think what it does mean is there's a very large stock of debt in the US and around the world as we come into the era of fragmentation. And so we do see already in market pricing a higher term premia. Our judgment right now is that the very long into the curve for most investors, you're not getting paid enough to take on three times the interest rate risk, which is our preference for the belly of the curve. So that's the most immediate point I guess I would make. What do you what's your reaction when you hear Jeffrey Gundlach say a reckoning is coming to the US in the US debt market? Our baseline view is that a reckoning is inevitable, but not our baseline for the next five years. We think the action forcing event in Washington to get our fiscal house in order will probably be in the next decade when the Medicare, Medicare and Social Security trust funds are exhausted. We could be wrong at some level. I hope we're wrong because an earlier reckoning means that we get our fiscal house in order. But our baseline is that that's that's something in the next decade. When you see these concerns of the US debt market and then you're also have this view that there's this fragmentation going on in the world. What does this mean for us? Exceptionalism? Is it over? Is it waning or potentially could it re-emerge in Trump to point out? We think it could re-emerge for the following reason. As we come into the era of fragmentation, there's a lot to like about the US. Strong productivity growth and innovative economy. More or less efficient capital markets. And. And those attributes have not gone away. There's a lot of uncertainty now, a lot of it generated about US trade policy and security policy. But over time, Anne-Marie, that will get sorted out. And as that goes into the rear view mirror, we think there's a decent shot that the exceptionalism mean returns. Can we just finish on the Federal Reserve? Oh, the kind of new considerations in monetary policy officials need to have in the moment that even a team, a framework, what's changed for them? I think that it will make their job more difficult in the sense that the Fed benefited enormously and all central banks did from globalization. And Jay Powell and I used to talk about that at the time is that the era of globalization lowered the cost of goods, increased efficiency, it put downward pressure on inflation. Indeed, the price of goods fell on average in the nineties up until the pandemic. And so as globalization goes into reverse and in the era of fragmentation, that process will be accelerating. It's going to make all central banks job at the margin harder because you will not have that disinflationary force from globalization. Do you think it makes it more difficult to respond to unfair shocks and respond quickly enough? I think at the margin, probably for all central banks, they have a little bit less room to respond preemptively to news of a slowing economy simply because they don't have the tailwind of inflation being a bit below target for ten or 15 or 20 years. And they want to keep inflation expectations anchored. So again, I think these effects are more at the margin, but I think it's less likely that you get preemptive moves to going into downturns. I remember a phrase of yours, an ounce of protection is worth a pound of cure. It doesn't feel like they have that luxury this time around. They have less of a luxury. And, you know, John, there is some path dependence here. I mean, we would be having a different conversation if inflation for the last four years had not been well above 2%. And I won't even use the T word here. And so I think there is some path dependence here for all central banks Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey and others, central banks. At the end of the day, one inflation expectations to be anchored and they want to be credible. So I think that is relevant here.
Bloomberg
8 hours ago
- Bloomberg
What the Price of Bananas Says About Inflation
By and Joe Weisenthal Save Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it's us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it's contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord, where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7.
