Final push in Hamilton by-election as parties jostle for late support

The Herald Scotland

2 days ago

The by-election was triggered by the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie.
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Find all articles on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election here
The SNP is the favourite to retain the seat, but both Labour and Reform UK believe they are the main challengers.
Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland, Professor Sir John Curtice said Reform were 'taking votes almost entirely from people who voted for Conservative or Labour or Liberal Democrat last summer'.
'They're taking very little from the SNP. Reform, at least, are not a problem for the SNP. The SNP have other problems, but Reform do not seem to be one.
'Indeed, by fracturing the Unionist vote, they have now ensured that at 33% the SNP are 14 points ahead of their nearest rivals.'
'Whoever wins this by-election — and to be honest, the SNP are the favourites — but frankly, we do not have any polling there. I think what we can anticipate is, if Hamilton follows the evidence of the national polls at all, it is going to be a close contest. It ought to be close between the SNP and Reform as between SNP and Labour, but maybe Reform will do somewhat better than the national polls.
'Either way, we could well be looking at the winner getting less than a third of the vote and winning by a small majority. I think probably that is the only safe prediction you can make about this by-election.'
The campaign has been dominated in recent days by a widely condemned Reform campaign video accused of being both racist and misleading.
The advert, posted on Facebook and Instagram earlier this month, used edited footage from a 2022 speech by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who had called for greater South Asian representation in politics.
Reform's version added captions suggesting Mr Sarwar had pledged to 'prioritise' the Pakistani community — a phrase he did not use.
Mr Farage has stood by the advert — which has now been viewed 1 million times — and accused Mr Sarwar of having 'a record of obsession' with race.
Anas Sarwar and candidate Davy Russell (Image: Gordon Terris) Speaking to PoliticsJOE, Mr Sarwar said it was Mr Farage who seemed obsessed with him.
'Put bluntly, Nigel Farage is a pathetic, poisonous little man,' he said. 'He does not care about Scotland. What he did when he came here was expose how pathetic an individual he is. He wants to play on people's fears rather than genuinely improve lives.'
Mr Farage visited Larkhall earlier this week in support of his party's candidate, Ross Lambie, but in chaotic scenes abandoned a planned walkabout with press, after wrongly accusing The Herald of leaking details of an earlier event in Aberdeen to protesters.
Mr Sarwar said that while Mr Farage was dominating the media narrative, the issues on the doorstep were very different.
'This is the one campaign where what is happening on the ground feels completely separate from the national media coverage,' he said. 'Yes, there is frustration. But Farage is the circus turning up — and he is the chief clown.'
'There are certain things that go beyond party politics — challenging prejudice and hate is one of them — and I would much rather be talking about the NHS, the schools, our justice system, our defence, all sorts of policy rather than identity, belonging and the other issues that Nigel Farage seems to be obsessed about.
'He seems obsessed with me, by the way, actually, to be honest with you. I do not know what it is, about a guy that sounds like me, looks like me in a leadership position that makes Nigel so uncomfortable.'
On Monday, Mr Farage conceded victory was 'improbable'.
He insisted Reform could still place second and 'shake up' Scottish politics.
'If we win this by-election, it would be the biggest earthquake Scottish politics has ever seen,' he said.
Ross Lambie the Reform candidate (Image: Getty Images) In his final message to voters, the First Minister said only a vote for the SNP would stop Reform.
He said: 'The Labour Party has lost its way and Keir Starmer's abject failure to deliver on his promises has led to the concerning rise of Nigel Farage across the UK — something that will worry many across Scotland.
'Farage does not care about Scotland, and he also poses a threat to many of the things that we hold dear: our NHS, our Parliament and transformative policies like free tuition.
'This by-election is an opportunity to reject the politics of Farage and make sure Scotland's interests are front and centre — and only a vote for the SNP will do that.'