America is already running low on cars to sell
The number of vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is decreasing quickly as people scramble to buy cars before the full effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs kick in, according to a new report.
The total supply of new vehicles on dealer lots is down 10.2% from the start of March, from 2.99 million to 2.69 million, according to auto industry tracker Cox Automotive. The group says sales surged last month due to seasonal trends as well as 'the urgency created by the import tariff announcement.'
'The new retail sales pace increased almost every week in February and March, with a strong surge at month-end with the import tariff announcement creating urgency in the final five days of the month,' the report says.
By the end of March, the 30-day weekly sales pace was up 17.2% compared with late February and up 11.9% year-over-year.
U.S. lots currently have a 70-day supply of new vehicles, down 21 days from the 91 days calculated at the beginning of March. That places the early April supply down 10 days compared with the same period last year and at its lowest level since 2023.
'With import tariffs now in place and parts tariffs likely to start in May, we expect supply to tighten even more in the weeks ahead,' Cox Automotive wrote.
Tariffs of 25% on all light-vehicle imports to the U.S., regardless of what country they're imported from, went into effect on April 3. A 25% tariff on auto parts is set to take effect on May 3.
The group wrote that it expects prices to 'significantly increase' as the tariffs kick in. 'As pre-tariff inventory is depleted, automakers distribute these additional costs across their entire portfolio of vehicles,' it said.
'As a result of these tariffs and the tightening inventory, and without a policy change in Washington, consumers should anticipate higher prices and fewer discounts on new vehicles by summer,' the report said.
Cox Automotive added that it expects tariffs to decrease both production and sales, which will lead to higher prices for both new and used cars. The group also said that some models may be discontinued as manufacturers adjust to the new economics.
Earlier in the week, S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) cut its forecast for 2025 car and light truck sales by 700,000 units. 'The impact of Trump's auto tariffs, in combination with the 10% universal tariff, has led to one of the largest single-month changes we've ever made to the forecast,' the group wrote. Only the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008-09 financial crisis triggered bigger adjustments.
S&P also cut its 2026 forecast by 1.2 million units and its 2027 forecast by 930,000 units compared with its outlook a month ago.
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