Kenyan shilling steady, with exporter FX supply meeting demand
NAIROBI, May 9 (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling was broadly steady on Friday as foreign exchange supply from exporters met subdued dollar appetite, traders said.
At 0900 GMT the shilling was trading at 128.75/129.75 to the U.S. currency compared with 129.00/129.50 at Thursday's close, London Stock Exchange Group data showed.
"I think it's going to trade within this band for the next week. The market is balanced," a trader said.
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Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
TRADING DAY Good vibrations turn sour
ORLANDO, Florida, June 11 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. The US and China have reached a trade deal, or at least agreed on the framework of a deal, which together with surprisingly soft U.S. inflation data, gave markets a lift on Wednesday. But Wall Street's gains were mild, and they were later wiped out by rising tensions in the Middle East. In my column today I look at the 'equity risk premium' and other metrics that suggest relative U.S. equity and bond valuations are getting very stretched. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Good vibrations turn sour It's a "done" deal, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, although the he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping still have to finalize the wording of the trade agreement between the two superpowers and sign off on it. The main points of the deal appear to be: China will remove export restrictions on rare earth minerals and other key industrial components; U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will total 55%; Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods will total 10%. Trump could not have been more enthusiastic in his praise for the agreement on Wednesday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said 'deal after deal' with other countries will follow in the weeks ahead. Yet, judging by the relatively muted market reaction, investors are less enthused. And given the chaotic and unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's tariff announcements thus far, the irony of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling on China to be a "reliable partner" in trade negotiations will not be lost on some observers. Especially, one suspects, in Beijing. Based on these proposed China levies, and with the US expected to conclude more trade deals in the coming weeks, the overall U.S. effective tariff rate will be lower than feared a couple of months ago. That's a relief. But the effective tariff rate of around 15% that many economists expect will still be significantly higher than the 2.5% rate at the end of last year, and would be the highest since the 1930s. Also, as the May inflation figures showed, tariffs have yet to be felt on prices. Investors - and Fed policymakers, who meet next week - are in a state of limbo. How will corporate profits and consumer spending be affected? What proportion of the tariffs will companies "swallow", and how much will they pass on to their customers? Zooming out, inflation appears to be cooling around the world, although this trend is expected to reverse once tariffs start to fuel higher goods price inflation. Figures on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer inflation and Japanese wholesale inflation were lower than expected in May. These reports follow similar numbers from Europe recently, and China remains stuck in its battle against deflation. Next up is India, which releases consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which are expected to show annual inflation slowed to 3.0% in May, the lowest in more than six years. Another focus for investors on Thursday will be the auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. US stocks-bonds warnings flash amber again Calm has descended on U.S. markets following the 'Liberation Day' tariff turmoil of early April. But Wall Street's rally has revived questions about U.S. equity valuations, as stocks once again look super pricey compared to bonds. Since the chaotic days of early April, U.S. equities have rebounded fiercely, with the S&P 500 up 25%, putting the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio for the index in the 94th percentile going back to the 1950s, according to bond giant PIMCO. Stocks are looking expensive in absolute terms, and in relation to bonds. The equity risk premium (ERP), the difference between equity yields and bond yields, is near historically low levels. According to analysts at PIMCO, the ERP is now zero. The previous two times it fell to zero or below were in 1987 and 1996–2001. In both instances, the ultra-low ERP precipitated a steep equity drawdown and sharp fall in long-dated bond yields. "The U.S. equity risk premium ... is exceptionally low by historical standards," they wrote in their five-year outlook on Tuesday. "A mean reversion to a higher equity risk premium typically involves a bond rally, an equity sell-off, or both." But reversion to the mean doesn't just happen by magic. A catalyst is needed. Equities have recovered largely because they were oversold in April, trade tensions have been dialed down, and investors remain confident that Big Tech will drive solid AI-led earnings growth. So even though huge economic, trade, and policy risks continue to hang over markets, there is no sign of an imminent catalyst that would cause an equity market selloff. The flip side of equities looking expensive is that bonds look like a bargain. Indeed, the relative divergence between stocks and bonds is such that, by one measure, U.S. fixed income assets are the cheapest relative to equities in over half a century. Using national flow of funds data from the Federal Reserve, retired strategist Jim Paulsen calculates that the total market value of U.S. bonds as a percentage share of the total market value of U.S. equities is the lowest since the early 1970s. "Since the aggregate U.S. portfolio is currently aggressively positioned, investors may have far more capacity and desire to boost bond holdings in the coming years than most appreciate," Paulsen wrote last week. But bonds are 'cheap' for a reason. Washington's profligacy – the reason ratings agency Moody's recently stripped the U.S. of its triple-A credit rating – and inflation worries have kept yields stubbornly high. The term premium - the risk premium investors demand for holding long-term debt rather than rolling over short-dated loans - is the highest in over a decade, reflecting concerns about Uncle Sam's long-term fiscal health. And the diagnosis here shows no signs of improving. Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' is expected to add $2.4 trillion to the U.S. debt over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, likely putting more upward pressure on yields. Of course, equity investors do seem to be pricing in a very rosy scenario, and the past few months have shown how quickly the market landscape can change. The U.S. economy could weaken more than expected, the trade war could escalate, or there could be a geopolitical surprise that causes bond yields and equity prices to fall. Investors should therefore be mindful of the warnings being sent by ERPs and other absolute and relative valuation metrics. However, they should also remember that stretched valuations can get even more stretched. As the famous saying goes, markets can stay irrational longer than investors can remain solvent. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Exclusive: Barrick Mining removes Mali gold complex from 2025 output forecast, sources say
TORONTO/DAKAR, June 11 (Reuters) - Barrick Mining ( opens new tab has removed its Mali gold complex from its overall output forecast for 2025, four sources told Reuters, adding to fallout from a two-year dispute over new mining legislation aimed at boosting the West African country's revenue. Operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex, one of the Canadian miner's largest gold assets in Africa, have been suspended since January after the military-led government blocked gold exports by the world's third-largest miner of the precious metal, detained staff and seized three metric tons of stock during separate negotiations over a new mining contract with Barrick. At stake for both sides is the opportunity to realize revenues worth at least $1 billion this year due to record high gold prices . Mali risks repelling potential investors, while Barrick shares have lagged those of its peers. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. Spokespersons for Barrick did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did a spokesperson for Mali's Mines Ministry. Barrick has not made its Mali output forecast public, but Morningstar analysts had predicted Mali would contribute around 250,000 ounces in 2025. Mali's government, a shareholder in the complex, asked a domestic court in May to appoint a provisional administrator to reopen the complex, which would effectively see Barrick lose control over the mines that accounted for 14% of its total output, according to Jefferies. A court hearing on the matter is scheduled for Thursday. Negotiations are ongoing in parallel with the court case. In a significant concession, Mali has agreed to allow Barrick to repatriate 20% of its earnings into an international bank account, an exception that was not made for any other foreign miners who recently renegotiated contracts with the state, two people familiar with the matter said. However, one remaining point of contention between Barrick and Mali is that authorities would like all future disputes to be handled in domestic courts. Barrick said any new mining contract should be covered under an international treaty and, in case of future disputes, be settled through international arbitration, according to one of the people and another source familiar with the matter. While strong gold prices have supported Barrick's global revenue, the threat of a provisional administration worries investors, one of the sources said, noting that even if the miner later regains control of the complex, it could be left with depleted gold reserves. In December, Barrick launched international arbitration proceedings against Mali. In May, it asked the World Bank's arbitration court to halt court proceedings in Bamako over provisional administration. According to two people aware of the development, the tribunal rejected that request. The president of the arbitration tribunal for the case declined to comment. In the first nine months of 2024, production in Mali contributed $949 million to Barrick's revenue. Jefferies, in an analyst report last December, estimated that if the Mali complex remains idle, Barrick would lose 11% of its expected 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation. Mali is Africa's third-largest gold-producing country. Malian authorities, which seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, say their current agreement with Barrick is unfair. The state has negotiated new agreements with other multinational miners. The chief executive of Australian miner Resolute was detained for more than a week amid negotiations last year.
Reuters
6 hours ago
- Reuters
China puts six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses, WSJ reports
June 11 (Reuters) - China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for U.S. automakers and manufacturers, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday citing people familiar with the matter.
