Will Nepal Really See A Return Of The Monarchy?

NDTV

6 days ago

A huge crowd headed towards Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli's Baluwatar residence from downtown in Kathmandu, chanting slogans in favour of the restoration of the Hindu monarchy, which was abolished in 2008. The crowd, led by former Home Minister Kamal Thapa, tried to break the police cordon.
This was on June 1. The police responded to protesters with batons. As they continued to push, the security forces fired tear gas shells to prevent the crowd from entering the premier's residence. Subsequently, as the crowd dispersed, police arrested Thapa. Most strikingly, he was dragged to a police van with his hands and legs tied, before being taken into custody. Hours later, Thapa and the other arrestees were released.
A Role Reversal
Clashes of this kind have become the norm in Nepal of late. Thapa, a leader of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) Nepal, was the Home Minister during the 2006 popular uprising that flared across the country. Those protests ended the centuries-old constitutional monarchy. Back then, dismayed by the direct rule of the then King Gyanendra Shah, tens of thousands of people had taken to the streets for nearly a month demanding the abolishment of the centuries-old Hindu monarchy. The government, led by the King's men, had ordered the police to open fire at the protesters. More than two dozen demonstrators were killed, scores of them injured, and thousands of others were detained.
Yet, protests continued. The nationwide uprising forced the King to abandon the Royal Palace, ending a 239-year-old tradition. And thus, Nepal was declared a Republic. India, China, the US and other influential countries endorsed the political shift. The King's residence, known as Narayanhiti Royal Palace, was subsequently converted into a museum.
Now, nearly two decades later, monarchists like Thapa have taken to the streets, followed by their supporters. The then rulers, who suppressed the people's movement under the guidance of King Gyanendra, are now the protesters. The roles have reversed in less than two decades.
A Slew Of Actors In The Fray
This time, backed by the frustrated populace, pro-royal forces are hitting the streets, vowing to bring back the King to the Narayanhiti Royal Palace. To amplify their demands, smaller parties, academicians and well-wishers have joined the movement for the restoration of a constitutional monarchy. The royal family itself has been backing the protesters, hosting lunch for leaders and defending their campaign in press statements.
Public support for the once-dethroned monarchy has also increased due to various reasons. The country is witnessing an economic crisis that's only worsening, and, consequently, the number of people leaving the country in search of jobs has almost doubled compared to a few decades ago. The alleged involvement of several ruling leaders in high-profile cases, including smuggling, human trafficking, fake refugee and visa scams, has added to the public discontent. So far, not a single case has been investigated fairly, with only junior-ranking officials being held accountable. Thus, it wasn't surprising how recently, when King Gyanendra returned home from Pokhara, visiting several Hindu shrines during his weeks-long stay at his residence in Kathmandu, thousands thronged the Kathmandu airport to escort him to his Palace, Nirmal Niwas. Hoping to cash in on this popular frustration, Gyanendra has also been meeting fragmented pro-royal parties. Two such parties - one led by Thapa and another by Rajendra Lingden - have mobilised their cadres.
Consequently, clashes have intensified too, as major republican parties mobilise their own supporters. On Monday evening, the police had to prevent a brawl between the Young Communist League (YCL), the youth wing of the Maoists, and supporters of the royal family. This happened when former princess Himani Shah and her son Hridayendra were attending a mourning procession for the loss of their family members in the 2001 Royal Palace massacre.
The Constitutional Hiccup
Nepal's constitution has little space for accommodating voices raised by monarchist forces. Legal experts see no such possibility under the existing Constitution. To amend the document and restore the Hindu monarchy, supporters will need to secure a two-thirds majority in Parliament in the election scheduled for 2027. Also, it's unlikely that the monarchists, who command very few seats in Parliament, would secure a majority owing to the complex electoral system.
Given this situation, the pro-royalists are now striving to stitch an arrangement with political parties wherein they could reinstate at least a ceremonial monarchy. However, most major parties have adopted a zero-tolerance policy against monarchist forces.
Nonetheless, the monarchists, aiming to build international support, have also begun to lobby openly with neighbouring countries, including India. The Indian establishment, however, which had brokered a deal in 2006 bringing Maoist rebels and parliamentary parties together to abolish the monarchy, has shown little favour to the protesters. So is the case with another neighbour, China. In any case, compared to monarchist forces, most major political parties in Nepal have better ties with India and China.
There's another problem: the royal family itself is unsure about whom to name as the new King. Gyanendra has already served twice, and his son, Prasa, is unpopular among the public. Only Gyanendra's grandson, Hrydendra, who's currently pursuing higher education in the US, is seen as the future King among some.
Given these complexities, the reinstatement of the monarchy seems impossible constitutionally, at least for now. Unable to secure the required majority, pro-monarchists should force the government to come to the table for negotiation. For that to happen, mainstream parties, which anyway have the upper hand as of now, will have to agree to have a dialogue too. In any case, it's unlikely that they will bow to the pro-royalists' demands.