Global airlines set to earn RM153bil in 2025 amid mounting challenges: IATA

New Straits Times

2 days ago

KUALA LUMPUR: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its forecast for global airline net profits in 2025 to RM153 billion (US$36 billion).
This reflects improved performance from RM137.5 billion (US$32.4 billion) in 2024 despite falling slightly short of earlier projections.
Total revenues for airlines are forecasted to reach a record of RM4.16 trillion (US$979 billion), up 1.3 per cent from the previous year.
This will be driven by RM2.94 trillion (US$693 billion) in passenger revenue and RM603 billion (US$142 billion) from cargo.
Ancillary revenues are projected to grow to RM611 billion (US$144 billion), while total expenses are expected to rise modestly by 1.0 per cent to RM3.88 trillion (US$913 billion), creating a wider margin that will bolster overall industry profitability.
"The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections."
"We anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence," IATA director general Willie Walsh said at the 81st IATA annual general meeting.
Asia Pacific is expected to be the largest aviation market by revenue passenger kilometre (RPK). China contributes over 40 per cent of the region's total traffic.
Eased visa rules in China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to support intra-regional travel and tourism.
Despite a downward revision in the region's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, particularly for China, passenger demand remains robust.
Capacity imbalances between domestic and international routes are showing signs of correction through better fleet deployment.
IATA's latest forecast also projected that passenger numbers would hit a record 4.99 billion in 2025, a four per cent increase from 2024.
Load factors are set to reach a historic 84 per cent, underscoring efficient seat utilisation despite ongoing fleet constraints.
Passenger growth, measured in RPK, is expected to grow 5.8 per cent this year. However, average ticket prices will drop four per cent, bringing the real average return airfare to RM1,586 (US$374), about 40 per cent lower than in 2024.
IATA said while more people are expected to fly, cargo revenues are projected to decline by 4.7 per cent to RM603 billion (US$142 billion) due to weaker global GDP growth and ongoing trade restrictions.
Cargo volume will slow to just 0.7 per cent.
Polls conducted by IATA in April indicated that 40 per cent of travellers expect to fly more in the coming year, and nearly half (47 per cent) expect to spend more on travel, despite concerns about global economic stability and trade tensions.
IATA said a key financial driver for 2025 is the drop in jet fuel prices, which have fallen 13 per cent year-on-year to an average of RM365 (US$86) per barrel, bringing the industry's total fuel bill down to RM1 trillion (US$236 billion) from RM1.11 trillion (US$261 billion) in 2024.
However, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains a costly alternative, representing just 0.7 per cent of total fuel usage.
SAF prices are projected to be 4.2 times higher than standard jet fuel.
"The behaviour of fuel suppliers in fulfilling the SAF mandates is an outrage. The cost of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is estimated to be an enormous RM19.98 trillion (US$4.7 trillion).
"Fuel suppliers must stop profiteering on the limited SAF supplies available and ramp up production to meet the legitimate needs of their customers," Walsh said.
He added that the cost of environmental compliance continues to rise, with the CORSIA offsetting scheme expected to cost airlines RM4.2 billion (US$1 billion) in 2025.
Despite this, only Guyana has issued high-quality carbon credit certificates for the programme.
IATA said a critical bottleneck facing airlines is the aerospace supply chain.
The aircraft order backlog now exceeds 17,000 with average daily wait times stretching to 14 years, up sharply from 10 to 11 years before the pandemic.
The industry body added that only 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered this year, almost 26 per cent below previous estimates.
Supply chain issues have inflated leasing rates, aged fleets, and led to inefficiencies such as deploying larger aircraft than necessary on certain routes.
IATA also said engine problems and a shortage of spare parts exacerbate the situation and have caused record-high groundings of certain aircraft types.
More than 1,100 aircraft under 10 years old are currently grounded, mostly due to problems with Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engines.
"Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long.
"And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable," Walsh said.
Looking ahead, IATA maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook and warned of numerous risks that could disrupt the industry's fragile recovery.
These include geopolitical conflicts, volatile oil prices, trade disputes, and regulatory fragmentation which could raise compliance costs.
"Earning a US$36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just US$7.20 per passenger per segment.
"It's still a thin buffer," Walsh said, urging policymakers not to overburden airlines with additional costs.