Odds of ‘city-killer' asteroid hitting the Moon go up again
A 'city-killer' asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile.
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Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth.
The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028.
In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4.
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4 Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a slight chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.
NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS
4 An animation showing the asteroid passing the Earth and heading too the Moon.
AP
JWST data, along with expert analysis from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%.
In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%.
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However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions.
4 The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028.
NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS
4 The James Webb Telescope captured images of the asteroid in the darkness of space.
NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Andy Rivkin (APL)
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Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for now.
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