The $15.8 Billion Gap: The Smart Economics Of Ocean Protection

Forbes

2 days ago

As world leaders are gathered in Nice for the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), new data has revealed the staggering cost of inaction, and the surprising economics of ocean protection. Despite headline commitments like the Global Biodiversity Framework's promise to safeguard 30% of marine ecosystems by 2030, only 2.7% of the ocean is effectively protected today. That number isn't just inadequate; it's falling. Ocean protection efforts are faltering, with policy talk far outpacing tangible results.
The conference is taking place at a critical inflection point. UNOC's priorities (defending ecosystems, building a sustainable blue economy, and accelerating global action) may represent one of the final windows to change course. But while political momentum grows, a fundamental question remains unresolved: who will pay to protect the ocean, and how?
World Bank and OECD estimates report that the ocean provides food security for 3.2 billion people, underpins $2.6 trillion in annual economic activity, and stores over 42 times more carbon than the atmosphere. Yet degradation is intensifying: coral reefs are dying, fisheries are collapsing, and coastal ecosystems are collapsing due to underfunding, misaligned incentives, and policy inertia.
Reaching the 30% target by 2030 will require establishing around 190,000 small coastal Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and 300 large offshore MPAs. According to report author Kristin Rechberger, founder and chief executive of Dynamic Planet, that's 85 MPAs per day between now and 2030. For context it took 25 years to protect just 8.4% of the ocean; now we must add 21.6% in five.
The challenge isn't logistics but perception. MPAs are still seen as financial liabilities, dependent on aid rather than high-return investments. Without a significant shift in political will, financing, and implementation, the 2030 targets are unlikely to be met.
Paradoxically, the price tag for turning things around is surprisingly modest. Protecting 30% of the ocean would cost just $15.8 billion a year, including $600 million to establish MPAs and $15.2 billion for their long-term management. In contrast, the IMF reported $7 trillion in fossil fuel subsidies in 2022 alone.
Meanwhile, research shows the benefits associated with marine protection often exceed the costs of establishing and managing the areas within just two years. It's estimated that every dollar invested in an MPA can generate up to $10 in economic value. That isn't a burden, it's a bargain.
The capital exists, the science is clear, and the solutions are ready. What's missing is not just money, but the mindset to value what the ocean provides. Marine ecosystems offer a triple dividend: climate stability, economic security, and food resilience. Yet benefits like carbon storage, storm buffering, and biodiversity are treated as invisible inputs in economic decision-making, excluded from balance sheets and national accounts.
As Dr. Harald Heubaum at the Centre for Sustainable Finance, SOAS University of London emphasised in an interview, protecting mangroves, seagrass, and reefs yields quantifiable returns many times greater than their cost. We have the tools to measure these benefits, he argues, but 'what's missing is a bridge between the evidence, investable products, and connected-up approaches that encourage capital deployment at scale.'
At UNOC Enric Sala, an Earthshot Prize nominee and scientific advisor to the executive producer of OCEAN with David Attenborough called for bold political leadership to ban bottom trawling within MPAs and expand no-take zones. "The worst enemy of fishing is overfishing, not protected areas," he said. Sala emphasized that robust protection is essential not just for nature, but for sustaining fishing and coastal economies.
Bottom trawling is among the most destructive, and least justifiable, fishing practices still permitted. A 2025 Lancet Planetary Health report found that bottom trawling in Europe emits CO₂ on par with the aviation sector and inflicts up to €11 billion in annual societal costs while contributing less than 0.5% of the global marine catch.
It also drives the bycatch crisis, killing an estimated 38 million tonnes of non-target marine life every year, including turtles, dolphins, and juvenile fish, most of which is discarded as waste. This indiscriminate damage erodes biodiversity, undermines fisheries, and weakens ocean resilience.
There are signs that the tide may be turning. At UNOC, the UK government launched a consultation to extend its bottom‑trawling ban across 41 MPAs, nearly doubling the areas currently protected to 30,000 km². The move could safeguard vital seabeds, boost biodiversity and carbon storage, and deliver an estimated £3.1 billion in ecosystem benefits. But isolated progress isn't enough. What's needed now are strong, enforceable commitments and coordinated implementation at scale, turning policy signals into lasting protection.
Neglecting ocean protection carries a steep and rising cost. Coastal storms and floods already cost up to $40 billion annually, projected to hit $1 trillion by 2050. Seagrass decline alone could cost the global economy $213 billion over the next 25 years. These aren't future risks, they're the mounting price of mismanagement.
Ocean finance remains fundamentally misaligned. Despite years of pledges, fossil fuel subsidies remain high, with no significant reduction from 2016 to 2023, according to Nature Climate Change Worse, fossil fossil development is expanding into critical marine ecosystems—over 60% of seagrass beds and 15% of mangroves now overlap with active oil and gas blocks. This is not just policy failure; it's a structural contradiction. We are using public money to fund the destruction of the very systems we claim to protect.
The same holds true for fisheries. Harmful subsidies that expand fleet capacity, enable distant-water fishing, or ignore sustainability safeguards continue to fuel overfishing and ecological decline. Aquaculture and agricultural subsidies contribute as well, degrading coastal habitats through pollution and conversion. Reforming these subsidies is a core aim of global efforts like the WTO fisheries subsidies agreement, but progress has been painfully slow. Until these distortions are addressed, efforts to finance a thriving blue economy will be fighting against a current of self-defeating incentives.
Another barrier to action is the failure to fund early-stage conservation. Projects like blue carbon initiatives or the development of MPAs often require upfront capital to identify suitable sites, conduct environmental assessments, and engage local communities. This early work often falls into a funding gap, seen as too technical for philanthropy and too early or risky for commercial investors.
Still, there is progress. Builders Vision and the Earthshot Prize are working to close a $900 billion funding gap for scalable marine solutions by 2030. Builders Vision has already deployed over $260 million across 158 marine projects, while companies like Fair Carbon are pioneering new approaches to finance, such as repayable finance tailored to blue carbon realities.
Peter Bryant, program director, Oceans at Builders Vision said: "We invest in marketable, innovative solutions to build a more resilient future. This week we are harnessing the power of our collective influence to urge global finance, government and industry leaders to get more capital off the sidelines and into ocean innovations that will ensure a thriving blue economy and resilient ocean."
For investors, ocean degradation is not just a climate or reputational concern, its a material risk. Marine-dependent industries face growing operational and reputational risk. Salmon farming, for example, depends heavily on fishmeal and fish oil from already overfished wild stocks. Peru's cancelled anchovy season in 2023 doubled global fish oil prices, sending feed costs soaring across the aquaculture sector.
As ocean ecosystems become less predictable, so does the business environment. Ocean protection is a critical necessity, for food systems, stability and long term resilience.
Three hurdles must be overcome: the ambition gap (what governments promise vs. what they plan), the finance gap (capital isn't flowing), and the implementation gap (where protection exists on paper but not in practice).
The near-ratification of the UN High Seas Treaty, now backed by over 100 countries, could be transformative if matched by funding, enforcement, and real collaboration. As of June 9, 2025, 49 countries (plus the European Union) had ratified, just 11 short of the 60 needed. Crucially, 18 countries have ratified during UNOC so far, signalling the potential for significant action.
Ocean protection is essential, achievable, and economically smart, but it requires decisive and immediate action. As negotiations continue in Nice, the UN Ocean Conference presents a critical opportunity to close the protection gap. The evidence is clear: marine conservation delivers substantial economic, environmental, and social return. Further delay is not a neutral choice, it is a decision to deepen risk, accelerate loss, and forfeit opportunity.