A Fragile Cease-Fire Between Iran and Israel, and Toxic Homes in L.A.
Hosted by Michael Simon Johnson
Produced by Michael Simon Johnson and Ian Stewart
Edited by Ian Stewart and Jessica Metzger
Featuring Patrick Kingsley
Hours After Israel and Iran Agree to Truce, Its Fate Is Uncertain, by Patrick Kingsley, Isabel Kershner and Aaron Boxerman
Supreme Court Lets Trump Deport Migrants to Countries Other Than Their Own, by Adam Liptak
Florida Builds 'Alligator Alcatraz' Detention Center for Migrants in Everglades, by Hamed Aleaziz
'Unsafe to Inhabit': The Toxic Homes of L.A., by Blacki Migliozzi, Rukmini Callimachi and K.K. Rebecca Lai
Vera Rubin Scientists Reveal Telescope's First Images, by Kenneth Chang and Katrina Miller
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CNN
18 minutes ago
- CNN
High tariffs give Trump less room for error in Iran
The US economy needs the fragile ceasefire President Donald Trump brokered in the Middle East to hold. If the pause in fighting between Israel and Iran fails and major hostilities resume, oil prices would likely spike again. And surging gasoline prices are the last thing the US economy needs right now. Inflation is already expected to heat up this summer because of Trump's massive tariffs on imports. An oil shock would make matters worse — perhaps much worse. 'It would be a bit of a double-whammy. First there's the stagflationary shock from tariffs. And then a potential oil shock,' Alan Blinder, economics professor at Princeton University and a former top Federal Reserve official, told CNN in a phone interview. In many ways, Trump's trade war gives him less margin for error in the Middle East. He can't afford another world event that causes inflation to rear its ugly head again and further delays rate cuts from the Fed. 'The economy is vulnerable to anything that could go wrong, and this certainly qualifies,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. That's why investors are breathing a huge sigh of relief in recent days. Stocks have popped and oil prices have plunged in one of the biggest sell-offs in years. Iran's response to US strikes on nuclear sites was far more limited, and symbolic, than feared. Not only that, but the ceasefire between Israel and Iran eases fears that vital energy infrastructure in the region will get caught in the crossfire. The nightmare scenario had been that Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical oil chokepoint on the planet. Analysts have warned that if this waterway shut down, oil prices could easily spike beyond $100 or $120 a barrel, causing a return of $4 to $4.50 gas in the US. As of Sunday, the odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz spiked to about 60% on prediction platform Polymarket. But by Tuesday, the odds plunged to just 17% as investors bet the worst in the Israel-Iran crisis may be over. Observers have noted that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive for Iran, which relies on the waterway to get its own oil to customers, mostly in China. 'They would be shooting themselves in the foot,' Blinder said, 'but countries have been known to do that.' Critics of Trump's aggressive use of tariffs warn that they will backfire, too. However, inflation has cooled in recent months even as Trump has lobbed tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum and imports from most countries. Yet many economists say this is the calm before the storm, with tariff-fueled price hikes on the way. Some items exposed to tariffs like appliances, toys and electronics have already become more expensive. 'In many ways, the past few months may be transitory low inflation before the price effect of tariffs hit,' Bob Elliott, CEO of alternative investment firm Unlimited, told CNN in a phone interview. 'No serious economist would look at inflationary trends and forecast they will exist into the future.' Unless tariffs get dramatically scaled back, Elliott said inflation is likely to heat up by 1% to 1.5% from current levels. 'That's not going to be acceptable for the Fed,' said Elliott. In testimony before Congress Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's wait-and-see stance, telling lawmakers: 'I wouldn't want to point to a particular meeting. I don't think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong.' If the situation in the Middle East does turn south again, it would create a potential boost to energy prices. 'It would be a tricky combination,' said Elliott, a former executive at hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates. Oil shocks can be very inflationary because energy prices feed in to many parts of the US economy. Not only that, but there can be a psychological effect given how closely Americans follow gas prices. And it's only been three years since gas prices spiked above $5 a gallon for the first time ever after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation skyrocketed to four-decade highs and the Fed was forced to put the fire out by dramatically lifting borrowing costs. 'People look at prices at the pump as a litmus test for inflation broadly,' said Zandi, the Moody's economist. For now, gas prices appear to have stabilized. The national average price of regular gas was flat at $3.22 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA. That's up from $3.13 a gallon when Israel attacked Iran earlier this month. However, it's still lower than $3.45 a gallon a year ago. In a speech on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted oil prices 'bear watching' given the recent price swings from geopolitical events. 'The pain of large increases in energy prices still weighs on consumer spending,' Hammack said, while noting that the US is less exposed to oil shocks than in the past. 'Recent increases in oil prices pose an upside risk to the stability of inflation expectations.' The scars of $5 gasoline in 2022 loom large. For now, investors are hoping the ceasefire in the Middle East means there won't be a repeat today.
Associated Press
19 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Anti-abortion doctors ask Mississippi Supreme Court to overturn 1998 ruling
Lawyers for the American Association of Pro-Life Obstetricians and Gynecologists have filed an appeal asking the state Supreme Court to overrule its 1998 decision and declare Mississippi's effective ban on abortion constitutional. In a 1998 ruling in Pro Choice Mississippi v. Fordice, the state high court said the state constitution provides Mississippians a right to abortion. Late last year, a Hinds County judge ruled members of AAPLOG did not have standing to pursue a lawsuit to overturn the 1998 decision because they have not been harmed by the court ruling. AAPLOG, represented by new public interest law firm American Dream Legal, is appealing that ruling, and asking the state Supreme Court to 'clarify whether Mississippi considers elective abortion a crime or a constitutional right,' according to a press release. Based on another Mississippi case, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the decades old Roe v. Wade right to abortion via the U.S. Constitution. The Mississippi Legislature has passed laws that prohibit most all abortions in the state and there are no clinics in Mississippi offering abortions. But the 1998 state Supreme Court decision holding that the state constitution provides a right to abortion has never been overturned and remains on the books. American Dream Legal in a statement said Mississippi's criminal ban on abortion conflicts with the Fordice decision, and this has AAPLOG physicians 'caught between conflicting legal duties: refer patients and risk prosecution under state law — or refuse to refer and risk professional ruin.' 'The people of Mississippi enacted a law that protected unborn life and took down the U.S. Supreme Court's abuse of judicial authority in Roe v. Wade,' said Aaron Rice, attorney for AAPLOG and CEO of American Dream Legal. 'It is only fitting that we likewise put an end to efforts by the courts in our own state to impose abortion by judicial fiat.' In the Hinds County case, both the state, through Attorney General Lynn Fitch, and pro-abortion rights supporters argued that the doctors did not have standing. It's unclear whether the high court will hear the appeal. In recent years, the state Supreme Court has taken a limited view of who has standing in various cases. ___ This story was originally published by Mississippi Today and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.
Fox News
19 minutes ago
- Fox News
Trump Angrily Rips Israel, Iran for Cease-Fire Violations, Denounces CNN and MSNBC Reporting
Howie Kurtz on Trump lashing out at both Israel and Iran for breaking ceasefire, Trump blasting the media for downplaying bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and the Supreme Court allowing the Trump administration to deport migrants to countries other than their own. Follow Howie on Twitter: @HowardKurtz For more #MediaBuzz click here
