So many buyers are shunning Tesla that it's hurting California's EV goals

San Francisco Chronicle​

17-05-2025

New Tesla sales in California dropped 21% in the first quarter of this year, according to data from the California Energy Commission, while sales of other types of electric vehicles went up by 14%.
Together, those shifts meant that EV sales overall decreased very slightly — 3% — year-over-year. The trend jeopardizes California's goal to have zero-emission vehicles constitute 35% of new car sales by 2026.

It's also a sign of tumult for Tesla. Although the company's cars accounted for just under 40% of all new zero-emission vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025, Tesla's share of the market decreased substantially since the first quarter of 2024, when its products made up nearly half of new sales.
That's unusual for a brand that has a five to ten year head start over its competitors, said Bill Pearce, a marketing expert at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business. Market leaders tend to see slower growth over time, Pearce said, as more competitors come in. But generally, sales still go up.
Tesla's unraveling offers a stunning object lesson — either on how to destroy a brand, or how to completely change its meaning.
For years, people bought Teslas not only for their clean fuel and reliability but because they signified certain values, Pearce said: care for the environment and humanity; faith in technology; a desire for progress. Such brand recognition was especially powerful in the Bay Area's liberal cities and suburbs where Teslas packed the roads.

Now, many consumers associate the cars with the company's polarizing chief executive, Elon Musk, a top advisor to President Donald Trump. Musk headed efforts to eviscerate federal agencies while also promoting right wing priorities, including a recent push for the resettlement of white South Africans.
As a result, choosing whether or not to buy a Tesla has itself become a political statement — one that's borne out in the data. Sales of the car seem to be dropping most sharply in blue regions, including in the Bay Area. Alameda, Sonoma, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties all saw drops of more than 25%. In each of those counties, overall zero-emissions vehicle sales fell by 3-4%.

In Yolo County, home to left-leaning Davis, a 37% decrease in Tesla sales drove a 25% drop in EV sales overall, the largest in the state.
Other California counties saw increases in Tesla sales — Stanislaus and Kern counties saw 34% and 13% increases respectively. Trump won both counties in the 2024 election.
Consumers 'are having a hard time separating (Musk), the CEO and Tesla evangelist, from the brand,' Pearce said. Some have gone so far as to trade in their Teslas at a financial loss. Others are plastering their cars with 'Anti-Elon' bumper stickers to distance themselves from Musk.

In a press release, the California Energy Commission wrote that 'consumers are buoyed by more choices' in the EV market, with 147 models available this year, compared to 105 models available at this time last year. Electric vehicles made up almost a quarter of new cars sold in California in the first three months of the year.
Several of the next top selling electric vehicle brands saw increases compared to the first quarter of 2024. The second top seller was BMW, which saw a 26% increase from the first quarter of 2024 to 2025. Mercedes-Benz, the third highest, saw a 7% increase, and Ford saw a 24% increase. Rounding out the top five, Hyundai saw a 6% increase.

'Mercedes and BMW could leap frog Tesla,' he predicted. 'It's going to be about technology. BMW is about driving. Mercedes is about luxury and comfort. They can win on those aspects.' Moreover, he added, any brand of EV can convey the owner's concern for the environment.
To Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, the sputtering demand for Teslas underscores a larger problem for the EV market: that consumer interest can't keep pace with California's ambitious environmental goals. His group is pressing regulators to pause the state's mandate that zero-emission vehicles comprise 35% of all new car sales in 2026.
'Overall EV market share needs to be growing substantially in order to meet the mandate that the Air Resources Board has set,' Maas said. 'And it's not.'
Yet California Air Resources Board Chair Liane Randolph said in the press release that the board was 'undeterred' by the slowdown in the EV market this quarter, calling it a 'normal, anticipated part of the technology adoption cycle.' She noted that the market remained strong despite Tesla's drop, and that 'many new offerings are experiencing encouraging consumer uptake.'