The 'least spectacular' of the Great Lakes is a devastating snow machine
'What we're seeing this year is the fact that the Lakes are staying warm, relatively ice-free far later into the winter season, and you still have cold air outbreaks,' says Rood.
A study published in the Journal of Climate in 2003 found 'a statistically significant increasing trend in snowfall for the lake-effect sites' throughout the 20th century across all Great Lakes. And another study looking at Buffalo, New York and published in the journal Earth's Future last June found that the conditions that produce lake-effect snow could produce 14 percent more precipitation as the planet warms, though some of that may fall as rain.
Modeling by the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) program suggests that air temperatures in the region could rise by up to 11˚F by 2100, a change that would create warmer lake water as years of warmer weather unfold.
Given the complex relationship between Arctic air flows and changing climate patterns, experts say they can't predict with certainty what future snowfall around the Great Lakes will look like, though the ingredients for severe snow storms—warming lake surface water and shots of extremely cold Arctic air—are likely to continue.
'The frequency of air crossing the Great Lakes that is cold enough to produce lake-effect snow is likely decreasing on average,' says David Kristovich of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign's department of climate, meteorology, and atmospheric sciences.
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