Key figures respond to AUKUS review
Rachel Mealey: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is yet to secure a crucial face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump as he heads off today en route to Canada for the G7 summit. As he awaits confirmation of a meeting, the government is playing down the Trump administration's decision to review the AUKUS security pact. Here's political reporter Evelyn Manfield.
Evelyn Manfield: It was a shot in the arm for critics of AUKUS when the US yesterday announced a 30-day review of the major defence pact. And it's news China could be welcoming too, according to Professor Gordon Flake from the Perth US-Asia Centre.
Gordon Flake: China's happy to be relatively quiet and let developments in Washington DC call into question America's commitment to allies.
Evelyn Manfield: While Professor Flake doesn't think the pact will fall over, if it does, he warns of dire consequences.
Gordon Flake: That would be a major blow, not just to Australia, but to the United Kingdom, to the stability of the Indo-Pacific, and most importantly, I believe, it would be a major blow to the United States' credibility among allies everywhere.
Evelyn Manfield: The Australian government argues a review is only natural for a new administration, but questions do remain about the US's ability to produce enough submarines to have spares to give to Australia. Although Defence Minister Richard Marles insists he's confident.
Richard Marles: We need to get to that point in the early 2030s, that's the time frame, and right now we are confident that we can meet that.
Evelyn Manfield: But former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says production isn't happening quickly enough.
Malcolm Turnbull: We have a submarine deal which is very likely to end up with us having no submarines, and we've got to start acknowledging that risk.
Evelyn Manfield: If that is the case, there's much more to be worried about, according to Ambassador Kevin Rudd's former deputy in Washington, Paul Myler.
Paul Myler: The key thing is if they can't sign off on them because they've failed, then we have bigger concerns of whether AUKUS itself fails. We have a collapse in the US submarine industrial base.
Evelyn Manfield: But Mr Myler, who now heads up strategic advisory firm StratQ, doesn't think that's actually the case.
Paul Myler: Addressing the workforce challenges and the supply chain integration challenges, and they seem to be turning the corner.
Evelyn Manfield: Over in the United Kingdom, the other country part of the trilateral pact, Defence expert Trevor Taylor says there is concern because it raises questions about submarine development, but also the reliability of the US as a partner.
Trevor Taylor: There is concern in the UK, and I'm sure we will be feeding in evidence into the inquiry through discrete channels.
Evelyn Manfield: It may well be a direct channel that Australia's PM Anthony Albanese has if he secures a meeting with US President Donald Trump in coming days as he heads to Canada for the G7 summit.
Rachel Mealey: Evelyn Manfield reporting.
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