2025 NBA, WNBA picks; predictions: Back OKC to cover first half in Game 5
I'm back with my best bets for Wednesday night.
On the NBA side, it looks like the Western Conference finals series is pretty much over. So I've got a couple wagers that I like for that game.
And now that the WNBA is in full swing, I've found at least one spot that I think is worth a look.
Check out what I'm on for Wednesday's matchups.
Timberwolves @ Thunder
The series went to Minnesota with the Thunder up 2-0, and it now returns to Oklahoma City for Game 5 with the Thunder up 3-1. One more win for the Thunder and they are through to the NBA Finals.
The Wolves played their best game of the postseason in Game 3 when they routed OKC. In Game 4, the Thunder controlled from first tip to final horn, even though it was just a single-possession win for them. I think the Thunder wrap up the series tonight, and I have a couple wagers I like around that thought.
Oklahoma City -4.5 first half
I expect the Wolves to attempt to start fast, knowing that this could be their final game of the season.
Anthony Edwards didn't play well in Game 4, so expect him to force the pace early and attempt to get the Wolves out of the gate quickly. So even though I love wagering on the first quarter, that's not what I'm doing for this one. Instead, I will take the Thunder to win the first half, after they weather the Wolves' early energy.
Once the Thunder settle into the game, they will look to put Minnesota away by halftime. The quicker they are able to end the game, the better. I'm also fading the Wolves' backups who will play in that stretch between the end of the first quarter and the first six minutes of the second quarter.
Role players, like Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who combined for 55 points in Game 4, will not play as well on the road. That same group scored 56 combined points in the first two games of the series.
So Minnesota will get off to a fast start and then OKC will withstand the early energy and pull away in the second quarter when the Wolves' backups are in the game.
PICK: Oklahoma City (-4.5 FH) to lead by more than 4.5 points at halftime
Donte DiVincenzo Over/Under 9.5 points
Fading role players on the road after a monster home-scoring output is one of my favorite playoff angles.
DiVincenzo was fantastic in Game 4. He scored 21 points while making five of his eight 3-pointers. It was the most points that he's scored in the postseason. His previous high was 13, and he's only been above nine points in three of the Wolves' 14 postseason games.
DiVincenzo is 10-for-43 from 3 on the road in the postseason, while shooting 16-for-41 from 3 at home. He's coming off back-to-back games at home where he made seven of his 10 3-point attempts.
I do not expect that to continue on the road in Game 5 based on his splits and the nature of role players in the league.
PICK: Donte DiVicenzo Under 9.5 points scored
Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics
Kiki Iriafen Over/Under 11.5 points
The Fever's interior defense has been an issue this season and, through four games, they've allowed the opposing bigs to score points.
In their first game, Angel Reese scored 12 points for the Sky. The first game against the Dream saw Brittney Griner score 21 points and Brionna Jones add 19. The second game against the Dream was better, with Jones scoring 15 and Griner scoring just five. Against the Liberty on Saturday, Jonquel Jones scored 26 points, shooting nearly 65% from the field.
Iriafen is averaging nearly 14 points per game through her first five WNBA games and is off a game with just four field goal attempts after getting up at least 10 shot attempts in the first four contests.
She will have a higher output of shot attempts tonight against the Fever.
PICK: Kiki Iriafen Over 11.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @ GeoffSchwartz .
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