MAGA's Grip on Republican Party Wobbles, Poll Suggests

Newsweek

13 hours ago

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The share of Republicans who identify as "MAGA Republicans" appears to have plateaued—and may even be slipping—according to a new poll.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted from May 30 to June 2 among 1,610 adults found that 49 percent of Republicans now describe themselves as "MAGA Republicans," a drop from previous months and only a modest increase from 38 percent in September 2022.
Among all U.S. adults, 16 percent now embrace the MAGA label, up slightly from 11 percent two years ago, but down from a peak of 20 percent in March.
Why It Matters
Since his first term, Trump has consolidated the Republican Party around not only himself but also his broader "Make America Great Again" movement.
But the latest findings indicate that, while Trump still commands deep loyalty among a significant portion of the GOP base, his branding power may be reaching its ceiling—or even entering a phase of fatigue or redefinition.
What To Know
The share of Republicans who identify as "MAGA Republicans" fell from a March peak of 60 percent in March.
Since then, Republican identification with MAGA has continued to fall, declining to 47 percent in April, before going back up to 55 percent at the end of May. But, in the past few weeks, the share of Republicans who identify as MAGA has declined again.
File photo: Donald Trump throws autographed hats to the crowd at the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament in Bedminster, New Jersey, August 13, 2023.
File photo: Donald Trump throws autographed hats to the crowd at the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament in Bedminster, New Jersey, August 13, 2023.
Seth Wenig/AP
Among the broader U.S. adult population, the MAGA label has never attracted more than 20 percent support.
YouGov/Economist polling shows that Republican men (59 percent) are still more likely than Republican women (45 percent) to identify as MAGA. Such self-identification is also higher among union members (60 percent), veterans (62 percent), very conservative voters (73 percent), and those who closely follow public affairs (63 percent).
While most Republicans still approve of Trump, MAGA Republicans are far more enthusiastic. In the latest poll, 97 percent of MAGA Republicans approve of Trump's job performance—a number that has remained steady. But approval among non-MAGA Republicans has dropped 18 points since January, and disapproval has jumped 21 points, with a particularly sharp decline in strong approval.
The split extends to personal opinions: just 23 percent of non-MAGA Republicans say they like Trump personally "a lot," compared to 68 percent of MAGA Republicans.
The economy may be a key reason some Republicans are distancing themselves from the MAGA brand. After Trump's election, MAGA Republicans became far more optimistic, with 58 percent now saying the economy is improving and 64 percent expecting their household finances to improve.
However, among non-MAGA Republicans, only 31 percent say the economy is getting better, and just 36 percent expect better finances ahead.
The polling is in line with the general trend in recent months, which has shown sagging numbers for the president following the introduction of his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April. The policy move rattled markets, prompting a sharp sell-off before an eventual recovery.
But public sentiment did not rebound as quickly as the Dow. Polls throughout April and much of May showed a decline in his national approval ratings and his ratings on the economy.
However, polls now suggest that the bleeding has stopped, as economic anxiety has somewhat subsided.
In the latest ActiVote poll, Trump's approval rose to 46 percent, up from 45 percent last month, while disapproval dropped to 50 percent. This marks a break from months of decline and puts Trump above his average first-term approval rating of 41 percent, and also above former President Joe Biden's average approval.
Similar gains were observed in polls by YouGov/Economist (45 percent approval, up one point), TIPP Insights (43 percent, up one), Civiqs, Trafalgar Group (54 percent approval, up sharply), and Quantus Insights (49 percent, up one). A John Zogby Strategies poll showed Trump holding a strong 58 percent approval, with disapproval down a point.
And, in the latest RMG Research poll. Trump's approval was up 5 points to 51 percent.
Newsweek's poll tracker also shows Trump's approval rating trending upward, currently showing that an average of 47 percent approve of his job performance, while 49 percent disapprove. A month ago, in the tracker, the president's approval rating stood at 44 percent, while his disapproval rate was firmly in the 50s.
But, like the MAGA poll, not all polls show an upswing. A YouGov/Yahoo poll showed Trump dipping to 41 percent, and Morning Consult recorded a drop from 48 percent to 46 percent in recent weeks.
What Happens Next
As the effects of his economic, immigration and other major policies come into sharper relief, Trump's approval rating is likely to fluctuate.