U.S. said to deny air cover to Europe force in postwar Ukraine
The U.S. is refusing to provide air defenses to back the "reassurance force' the U.K. and France are planning in a postwar Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has insisted a U.S. so-called backstop is essential to deter Russia from breaching any future ceasefire deal. But European allies have concluded during discussions with their American counterparts that President Donald Trump won't provide the guarantees they have sought to back the Europe-led 'coalition of the willing,' according to the people, who requested anonymity disclosing private discussions.
The U.K. government declined to comment. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The U.S. reluctance to provide the backup sought by its European partners highlights how the western allies are at odds over the way to deal with Russian aggression in Ukraine. European officials had said the U.S. guarantee was needed alongside a strong Ukrainian force supported by allied training and troops, in order to deter Russia.
"There must be a U.S. backstop,' Starmer said in February. "U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again.' The U.K. and France had been seeking to persuade Trump to offer air power, as well as border surveillance and intelligence.
Despite their downgraded expectations of the potential U.S. offer to postwar Ukraine, the U.K. and France remain hopeful the U.S. will continue to provide intelligence as well as surveillance of the border between Ukraine and Russia, the people said. Some European officials also hope Trump would intervene if British and French troops were targeted by Russia in Ukraine, but think he is unlikely to put such a guarantee in writing, one of the people said.
Moreover, European governments have adjusted their assessment of what's needed to deter Russia. They now believe a combination of the Ukrainian force, allied training, European troops and aircraft stationed on NATO's eastern flank and patrols in the Black Sea, is enough, one of the people said.
"We appreciate the work that the allies, particularly France and the United Kingdom together with Germany and others have undertaken to develop the coalition of the willing,' U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. "We are counting on all our European allies to continue taking the leadership position in contributing military resources and providing the political capital to make security guarantees a reality.'
The allied force — which would help ensure the security of Ukraine's airspace, coastline and land by placing European troops away from the border at critical ports and infrastructure alongside continued deliveries of military hardware — is dependent on a peace settlement, which European officials think is increasingly unlikely.
The U.K. and France have finished mapping out where the force will be based and how it will operate, but have put the plan on ice until ceasefire negotiations resume, the people said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent determination to continue his onslaught on Ukraine and Trump's demand that Europe should take responsibility for its own security has pushed allies to increase defense spending and plan for how they would ensure Russia doesn't attack Ukraine again if peace is reached.
Of the 30 participants in the coalition, which also includes non-European nations such as Canada, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, fifteen have offered forces including aircraft, naval vessels and other military equipment, Bloomberg reported in April. Still, the countries which have given a firm commitment to send troops is in the single digits.
Trump is set to meet allies at the Group of Seven meeting in Canada and the NATO summit later this month. NATO plans to ask Europe and Canada to increase their stocks of weaponry and equipment by about 30% in the next few years, requiring a huge financial uplift from most capitals. An ambitious new target to be agreed — to spend 5% on defense and related policies — is designed to satisfy Trump's demand that Europe shoulder more of the security burden.
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