Why Novak Djokovic can beat Jannik Sinner – despite not getting a break point against him in six sets

New York Times

a day ago

ROLAND GARROS, PARIS — Novak Djokovic has already done something borderline ridiculous at this French Open. He's made the semifinals of a second consecutive Grand Slam, this one as a 38-year-old.
He's gotten here by pummelling opponents far younger than he is, dropping a single set in his five matches so far. On Wednesday, he beat Alexander Zverev, the current world No. 3 and last year's runner-up here, with a display of aggression, touch and dexterity.
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It took him a set to find his feet after losing his serve in the opening game, but from there Djokovic conducted a surgical masterpiece, twisting Zverev this way and that, exhausting him into errors and taking out his legs to extract the power from his serve as night fell and it got harder and harder to generate pace on the ball.
The borderline has been crossed. Now comes the ridiculous.
If Djokovic wants to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title, he must beat Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1 who has won six straight sets against him without facing a break point, in their Friday semifinal. If he can somehow do that, he is likely to have to topple defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday — unless Lorenzo Musetti, who is having the best clay-court season of his career, can produce an upset earlier in the day.
If that all somehow came to pass, Djokovic would have beaten the world No. 3, No. 1 and No. 2 in successive matches.
No man has ever beaten the top three players in the sport en route to a Grand Slam title. There's no reason to think it might be possible over the next few days at Roland Garros, except one: it's Novak Djokovic.
So here's why he can win — and feel free to get yourself a stiff drink before reading any further.
It's important to explain why there is no reason to think it is possible other than the fact that this is Djokovic, because Sinner might well sweep him off the court tonight.
The Italian has owned Djokovic on court for a year and a half. Their career head-to-head is 4-4, but Sinner has won the three most recent meetings and four out of five.
His victory over Djokovic in the 2023 Davis Cup semifinals, a match where he saved three match points, was the catalyst for his run to the top of men's tennis. Sinner also beat him at the Australian Open two months later, on the way to his first Grand Slam title, and then did it again at the Shanghai Masters in October.
Djokovic has arguably the best return of serve in tennis history. Only Andre Agassi's is comparable. Yet in those two matches last year against Sinner, Djokovic didn't earn a single break-point opportunity over the combined six sets, one of which he won in a tiebreak.
At this tournament, Sinner has destroyed everyone he has played. He has met opponents who play like he does, but worse. They see they can't hit through him, so try to hit harder. It doesn't go well. This means that not only is he 15 years younger than Djokovic, he's also extremely well-rested. Sinner has only spent eight hours, 35 minutes on the court in his five matches. Djokovic is over 12 hours in his.
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But that's the case for the defense.
Here is why Djokovic can win, and it starts with the clay.
Djokovic has won three titles here, which isn't many compared to his 10 in Melbourne or his seven at Wimbledon. But he had the bad luck of playing at the same time as Rafael Nadal, who won 14 French Open titles and essentially shut down Roland Garros for everybody else for the best part of his 20-year career. Djokovic has made the quarterfinals more often here than at any other major, and he beat Nadal on the way to two of those three titles.
Sinner? He's never made the final in Paris. Clay is supposedly his worst surface, recent evidence notwithstanding. Alcaraz made him look like he was playing on an ice-rink in the second set of their final on clay in Rome last month, though a good chunk of that has to be attributed to a lack of match practice after his three-month anti-doping ban.
The younger guy should also have the better legs and lungs, but there have long been questions about Sinner's endurance in five-set matches. He's just 6-9 in fifth sets and hasn't gone the distance in a match since Wimbledon last July. No one ever asks that question about Djokovic, at least not in about 15 years.
Djokovic has done ridiculous things at Roland Garros against players two tennis generations younger as recently as last summer. In the Olympics gold-medal match, he beat Alcaraz 7-6(3), 7-6(2) over three hours of the most scintillating tennis of the year. Alcaraz is better on clay than Sinner.
Sinner's most potent weapons on the hard courts, where he has dominated Djokovic, are the velocity of his groundstrokes and the atomic action and laser-like precision of his serves. The clay slightly slows those balls, giving the Serbian a little more opportunity to get into points.
There's only one form of tennis kryptonite that Sinner responds to: variety. Opponents have to move him, not just laterally but also vertically and diagonally. And they have to do it all match long. For about 45 minutes of their quarterfinal on Wednesday, Alexander Bublik caused Sinner some real problems, coming very close to stealing the second set.
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How?
'He mixed up the game a little bit more,' Sinner said. 'Dropshots — amazing.'
Nobody talks much about Djokovic's drop shots, which are some of the finest in the men's game, but Zverev is going to be seeing them in his sleep for a week. He chased down three from the back of the court during one 41-shot rally in the fourth set when he was pushing to draw even and push the match to a fifth. He had two, perhaps three, opportunities to hit an overhead and put the ball away. He couldn't do it.
Bublik hit 37 drop shots in his four-set upset of Jack Draper, the world No. 5, in round four. Djokovic hit 32 against Zverev, including the side-spinner that got him to match point.
Sinner himself has begun to hit a pretty good drop shot, which is especially effective inside-out on the forehand side, when he has an opponent pinned deep. It's just not as good as Djokovic's.
So, Djokovic has to play like he did against Zverev, just even better, and do it for hours, on the clay, at night.
Not exactly a small task, but Djokovic has been wearing a jacket this week with a small gold-coloured patch on it. It's a symbol of the gold medal he won here last summer — his little reminder that he can pull off the impossible.