Taiwan tensions mount as China and US ramp up military posturing in Pacific

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2 days ago

China's military behaviour around Taiwan has changed from occasional show of strength to relentless organised pressure. This may mean China is moving from psychological tactics to becoming a state for real conflict. In recent months, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has shown it can quickly move from peace to war, according to top Taiwanese officials and US defence experts.
China's air force and missile systems—important for any invasion of Taiwan—are now advanced enough to act with little warning. A senior Taiwanese military official told the Financial Times on May 26, 2025, that these units could 'switch from peacetime to war operations any time'.
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China's military flights near Taiwan are at record highs. Warplanes now enter Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) more than 245 times a month, compared to fewer than 10 five years ago. Over 120 times each month, these aircraft cross the Taiwan Strait's median line, which used to act as an unofficial boundary. On May 27 alone, 61 Chinese planes reportedly flew near Taiwan, including 27 J-16s and KJ-500s, entering several parts of the ADIZ.
Along with air activity, China's navy is also very active. The PLA Navy, especially with its powerful Type 052D destroyers, often sails through important sea routes like the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel, according to the Financial Times. Yang Tai-yuan, a former instructor in Taiwan's Army Command, said these actions are likely practice for wider Pacific missions. The goal is to avoid getting trapped near China's own coast during war. A US defence official warned that China could block Taiwan's access to the sea 'in a matter of hours.'
China's amphibious forces—those trained to land on beaches—have also improved. Six brigades are based just across the water from Taiwan and train often at ports that could be used to start an invasion. These troops use high-tech transport and scouting tools, including the PCH-191 rocket launcher, which can hit any part of Taiwan from mainland China. Taiwanese officials say these forces have taken part in every military drill focused on Taiwan since 2022.
Washington's counterweight
In direct response to China's rapid militarisation and mounting aggression, the US has bolstered its regional deterrence strategy, focussing on advanced missile deployments and joint exercises with allies. The most visible of these efforts has been the unprecedented stationing of anti-ship missile launchers on Batan Island in the Philippines—just miles from Taiwan.
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The Associated Press reported in April that these mobile platforms, part of the US Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, enhance the Pentagon's ability to deny Chinese forces access to key maritime routes like the Bashi Channel.
These systems are part of a broader framework, which includes the forward deployment of long-range Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles and Standard Missile-6 systems. Their strategic placement allows the US to project power into mainland China's range and bolster Philippine defence.
Meanwhile, annual military exercises such as Balikatan have evolved from training drills to simulations of full-scale war, involving over 9,000 American and 5,000 Filipino troops, with support from Australian and Japanese observers. These exercises, though publicly labelled non-provocative, occur in the very waters contested by China, especially near the volatile South China Sea.
Such deployments are meant not only to contain China militarily but also to reassure regional allies. According to Philippine Brigadier General Michael Logico, these combat scenarios 'strengthen deterrence against aggression in the Bashi Channel'. However, China has fiercely criticised the US presence, labelling these actions as escalatory and provocative, further deepening strategic mistrust.
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Progress and pitfalls: China's military modernisation in focus
While the PLA's transformation under Xi Jinping has been monumental in scope—expanding its capabilities in air, sea, cyber and space domains—its practical readiness for large-scale modern conflict remains contested. The reforms, particularly the 2015 overhaul that broke traditional command units into more agile, joint-operation formations, have enhanced operational flexibility. However, critics argue that institutional weaknesses remain.
The CNN report from February this year, citing the RAND Corporation, contended that the PLA's modernisation serves the primary function of bolstering Communist Party legitimacy rather than genuine warfighting capabilities.
Political control mechanisms—such as mandatory ideological training and dual-command structures involving political commissars—are said to undermine command responsiveness and operational autonomy. Timothy Heath, the report's author, argued that nearly 40 per cent of PLA training is consumed by political indoctrination, which dilutes combat readiness.
While some experts dismissed this conclusion as overly optimistic about China's weaknesses, there is broad consensus that the PLA faces challenges in adapting high-tech assets into effective combat forces.
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Collin Koh of Singapore's Rajaratnam School noted that while the PLA has constructed a formidable navy, adequately training and maintaining a skilled corps to operate these modern warships remains a bottleneck. Corruption within the PLA's upper echelons, as detailed in a December Pentagon report, continues to disrupt strategic continuity and resource allocation.
Nonetheless, US intelligence believes Xi has instructed the PLA to attain full operational capability to invade Taiwan by 2027—a goal which, according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, may already be partially achieved in domains such as rocketry and satellite surveillance.
Dangerous brinkmanship
The growing military actions by both China and the United States are making it more likely that something could go wrong by accident. Taiwan is stuck in the middle of this power struggle and faces almost daily signs of how risky the situation is. With both sides building up their military forces, there's a bigger chance that a normal incident—like a plane flying into restricted airspace or a ship getting too close—could suddenly lead to serious conflict.
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The Quincy Institute has called Taiwan the most dangerous hotspot in US-China relations. In a report from January 2024, it explained that deep mistrust, old conflicts and political pressure at home have created a tense situation where both countries prepare for the worst. Because of this 'zero-sum' mindset, each side sees the other's actions as threatening and wrong, making peaceful solutions harder to find.
The line between military training and actual war preparation is becoming unclear. US officials have pointed this out, especially when talking about China's drills and the US-Philippines 'Balikatan' exercises. Admiral Paparo warned that what looks like a training drill—what he called 'the fig leaf of an exercise'—could be used as an excuse to start real fighting. This shows just how fragile the current situation really is.
Taiwan on alert
Taiwan's response to this increasingly militarised environment has been resolute and pragmatic. Recognising the immediacy of the threat, Taipei has embarked on a sweeping overhaul of its defence strategy. As reported by Firstpost and Focus Taiwan, the island has extended compulsory military service to one year, revised training programmes to reflect asymmetric warfare doctrines and expanded its use of drones, mobile radars and air defence systems.
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Defence Minister Wellington Koo and President Lai Ching-te have framed this transformation not as reactionary but as an essential safeguard against what Lai described as a looming 'war of endurance'. Taiwan is stockpiling military supplies and refining its troop deployments with an emphasis on resilience and mobility.
The upcoming Han Kuang drills from July 9 to 18 are designed to test the island's readiness for a multi-front assault, with special focus on counter-invasion scenarios and coastal defence.
President Lai has stressed that psychological readiness is just as important as tactical planning, indicating that Taiwan might need to brace for a prolonged conflict. His administration's focus on strengthening public resilience, increasing civic awareness and enhancing international cooperation reflects Taiwan's broader aim to not only improve its defence but also reinforce its position as a key democratic stronghold in the increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Strategic stalemate or collision course?
The strategic relationship between China, US and Taiwan is now very unstable. China sees taking back Taiwan as a key national goal—something it wants to achieve by 2049, or even as early as 2027. On the other side, US is firmly committed, both in military and political terms, to stopping any one-sided change in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan, caught in the middle, wants to keep control of its own affairs without triggering a conflict—a task that becomes harder every time China's military acts or the US places more weapons nearby.
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This three-sided situation has led to a constant back-and-forth. When China sends out its military, the US responds with joint exercises and more weapons, which then leads to even more Chinese military activity. Reports from the Financial Times, CNN and the Associated Press all show that each move is seen not as a single event, but as something that could possibly start a war.
It's still uncertain whether calm leadership will win out. Some experts, like Timothy Heath, believe that China mainly wants political stability—not war. But even if that's true, the massive increase in military power can't be ignored. At the same time, while the US says its moves are for defence, bringing its forces closer to China's region makes conflict more likely.
A region on the edge
The Taiwan Strait is no longer just a geographical divide—it is a fault line between competing world orders. As China accelerates its military preparations, deploying new amphibious units and airpower to enable swift transition to conflict and as US responds with powerful deterrent systems across the Pacific theatre, the region edges ever closer to a tipping point.
Taiwan, under immense pressure, is fortifying itself both materially and psychologically, aware that it may be forced to defend its autonomy with arms.
The rhetoric of peace is slowly being drowned out by the cadence of war drums. With each sortie, missile drill and naval deployment, the prospects for dialogue diminish. A conflict may not be inevitable—but without serious recalibration and renewed diplomacy, it is no longer unthinkable.