My lucky number is 52

Otago Daily Times

25-04-2025

Every few weeks bingo counters get tipped into an old biscuit tin and one of the most beloved institutions of the New Zealand Parliament, the member's Bill ballot, is held.
For Taieri Labour MP Ingrid Leary a fortnight ago 52 was her lucky number and her Property Law (Sunset Clauses) Amendment Bill is now set down for first reading. Opposition proposals usually fall at this second hurdle, but this one seems eminently reasonable: it is intended to stop developers who have sold a property off the plans from later invoking a sunset clause, tearing up the contract, and re-listing it.
The mechanism may require some tweaking: Ms Leary proposes that both vendor and purchaser will need to both agree to end the contract, which runs the risk of restraining the trade of the former or holding the latter to a deal they want out of. She hopes that can be avoided through an appeals process to an independent authority. All she needs to do now is convince at least one of the governing parties to back her.
It is not all happiness on the southern member's Bill front though. Southland National MP Joseph Mooney (who is still waiting for disc No 4 to be drawn from the biscuit tin) has proposed the Climate Change (Restriction on Civil Proceedings) Bill for possible parliamentary consideration and Greenpeace — for one — is not best pleased about it.
The environmental group sent out a blistering press release the other week to condemn Mr Mooney's Bill, which proposes to prohibit any civil court claims arising from, or related to, climate change matters.
Probably not all coincidentally, last year the Supreme Court overturned a Court of Appeal decision which effectively struck out iwi leader Mike Smith's bid to sue Fonterra for its part in emitting dangerous greenhouse gases. The Court of Appeal ruled Mr Smith's claim hopeless and said the court's time should not be wasted; the Supreme Court did not opine whether Mr Smith could win or not but said he should be allowed his day in court.
Mr Mooney, a lawyer himself, clearly sits in the "it's a hopeless case" camp, saying in the Bill's purpose statement: "Recognising the complexity of climate change as a global phenomenon influenced by numerous factors beyond the control of any single entity, this Bill seeks to prevent litigation from being utilised to address issues more appropriately resolved through legislative, regulatory, and market-based frameworks".
Greenpeace, on the other hand, argued that it was a complete overreach of executive political power: "This Bill would have a chilling effect on New Zealanders' democratic rights and our ability to secure a liveable future for our kids and grandkids".
But until Mr Mooney strikes it lucky, we will have to wait for the full debate on this issue. Drawing a line
Longtime readers will know that Southern Say takes a keen interest in electorate boundaries. Last month the Representation Commission's proposed new boundaries for the next general election were released and it was all rather underwhelming.
Unlike the last review — a substantial redrawing of most southern boundaries — this time nothing happened. Well, unless you are one of the 900 voters in Nightcaps, Otautau or Winton: it is proposed they move from Southland to Invercargill.
All the other southern electorates stay as they are, meaning the commission has again kicked for touch on the vexed subject of whether the southern lakes needs its own seat.
The Electoral Act mandates that there are just 16 electorate seats in the whole South Island. This is why the MPs for Waitaki, Southland and the West Coast represent 63% of its land mass among them, in electorates each the size of small countries.
It is also why Waitaki includes the township of Wanaka and why Queenstown is in Southland, despite their clearly meeting the communities of common interest provision in setting electorate boundaries. Put the two in the same electorate and some of the other electorates would have to become huge in order to have enough people in them — hence the big redraft last time.
However, the commission's report does suggest another revamp will be needed soon. About 70,000 people are in each South Island electorate. Population projections suggest already over-quota Waitaki will be almost 5% over by 2029, and that Southland will be 3% over. However, the way Queenstown and Wanaka are booming, that seems conservative.
In the meantime, already-under-quota Dunedin will be nearly 8% under by that time, Taieri 7.3% below, and Invercargill 7.1% below. That might make a "Lakes" seat an option but, if that were to happen, it would also likely mean whichever of Southland or Invercargill survived would need to take in a decent chunk of Taieri. In the alternative, Waitaki would either have to embrace a chunk of Rangitata or merge into a super-sized Dunedin. A single Dunedin seat is another, albeit unlikely, option. But these vexed questions will not be asked until after the next census.