Dabo Swinney reshapes Clemson football in transfer era

The Herald Scotland

2 days ago

Sportsbooks are snoozing on Clemson, but the stat nerds are wide awake.
Dabo Swinney's Tigers have, on average, about a 14-to-1 betting chance of winning the national championship. Those odds trail seven other teams.
Betting sharps probably noticed this nugget, though, from ESPN's analytics guru Bill Connelly: Clemson returns more production than any other team, according to Connelly's metrics. His analysis accounts for inbound transfers - not that Clemson features many.
Clemson's veteran, talented roster reminds me a bit of Swinney's teams from a heyday when he won two national championships in three years behind proven quarterbacks, talented wide receivers and stingy defenses.
While many of Swinney's peers play the transfer sweepstakes, he persists with a recruit, develop and retain methodology.
"I'm not against the portal, but ... this is not a catch-and-release program," Swinney said earlier this offseason on "The Unafraid Show" podcast. "This is not a place where we're going to run guys off.
"We know exactly what we're looking for. We're unique, and we're different in our approach."
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A year ago, I thought Swinney erred by not supplementing Clemson's young roster with some transfers. Swinney could stand to be more active in cracking Clemson's door to high-impact transfers, but he deserves credit for keeping his top talent out of the portal.
Clemson's best performers returned from last year's team that won the ACC after a rocky start.
Now that Swinney is armed with a more seasoned roster, his adherence to the develop-and-retain approach seems poised to pay off, though we'll gain more data after Clemson hosts LSU in Week 1.
Cade Klubnik headlines Clemson's returning production
Connelly's returning production metrics prove useful in identifying teams poised to break out. Before the 2023 season, his metric ranked Florida State, Missouri and Michigan among the nation's returning production leaders.
Michigan won the national championship. Florida State finished 13-1. Missouri, unranked in the preseason polls, won 11 games for the first time in nearly a decade.
I don't need analytics, though, to tell me the value of a solid quarterback. Cade Klubnik fits that billing.
There were times the past two seasons when Klubnik didn't look the part of a five-star recruit. His performance bottomed out in the 2024 season-opening loss to Georgia. He rebounded, and he peaked at the season's crescendo, starring in Clemson's ACC championship win against SMU and playing well in a playoff defeat to Texas.
"I'm kind of the epitome of the word development," Klubnik told reporters earlier this offseason.
Indeed. NFL draft experts project Klubnik to be among several Clemson first-round prospects for 2026.
Goodness, Dabo Swinney even added transfers
When Swinney has had a good quarterback, he wins big. He won a Peach Bowl and then an Orange Bowl with Tajh Boyd, Clemson's all-time passing leader. Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence produced national championships.
It's unfair to compare Klubnik to either Watson or Lawrence, but Swinney's past peaks make it notable that he's got a good quarterback again, and weapons surround Klubnik. That, too, is a throwback to Swinney's pinnacle, when Clemson put defenses into conflict with receivers like Mike Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross.
Clemson returns its top three receivers. Oh, and it added transfer Tristan Smith, who caught 76 passes for Southeast Missouri State in the Championship Subdivision last season.
That's right, Swinney signed not one, not two, but three impact transfers. If Clemson vies for glory, you'll be force-fed the narrative that Swinney persevered after refusing to bend the knee to the portal. It's true he views the portal with caution, but it's also true he added three more transfers this offseason than he did the previous offseason. Those acquisitions help elevate Clemson's ceiling after it suffered four losses in consecutive seasons.
A year ago, Clemson's wide receivers were young and unproven. Now, Smith joins a position filled with established targets, led by Antonio Williams and his 153 career receptions.
As Swinney put it, Clemson touts "six dudes" at wide receiver.
Clemson's list of "dudes" - the industry's code word for NFL talent - also includes defensive linemen Peter Woods, T.J. Parker and transfer Will Heldt. You need multiple "dudes" to win a national championship. Clemson could do that. It's probably the only team from its conference that can.
Oddsmakers and stat nerds agree on that much. No other ACC team ranks in oddsmakers' top 10 favorites to win the national championship. No other ACC team ranks in Connelly's top 15 for returning production.
Clemson's downturn these past few seasons could be partially attributed to Swinney's stubbornness and his reluctance to evolve. If the Tigers ignite behind this talented roster, that will remind us of Swinney's best side - his ability to develop and retain talent at a level few coaches can.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at [e-mail] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.