Does this Fresno Council candidate have the upper hand? Political science expert weighs in

Yahoo

25-02-2025

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Southeast Fresno voters next month will decide from a crowded field of candidates who will succeed former Councilmember Luis Chavez as the District 5 representative on the City Council.
Several of the four candidates running for the vacant seat in the March 18 special election have already ran for the post. But one candidate vying to represent the sprawling southeast Fresno district could have the upper hand, according to a political expert.
Chavez who left the seat in January to assume his position as District 2 County Supervisor.
One candidate running for the seat, Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas, a third-term trustee representing Fresno Unified's Area 2, is facing heightened scrutiny both as a woman in politics and due to her personal ties. She is married to Chavez.
Other council membersalso had previous ties prior to winning office. District 4 Councilmember Tyler Maxwell used to be a staffer for District 7 Councilmember Nelson Esparza. District 1 Councilmember Annalisa Perea joined the council in 2023. Her father, former Fresno County Supervisor Henry R. Perea, and older brother, Henry T. Perea, also previously served.
Jeff Cummins, a professor of political science at Fresno State, said it's fairly common to see relatives and staff members of former seat holders run for political office, not just at the city level but at the state and national level, such as with the Clintons and the Browns in California.
'Those people often are familiar with the district, they know donors and they know the political players in the district,' he said in an interview. 'It's not unusual at all.'
It's 'a little less common' for an affiliation to a former seat holder be one through marriage, though, he said.
Candidates for the District 5 seat include Jose Leon Barraza, a longtime community advocate and city parks commissioner with decades working for Fresno County on economic development; Fresno resident Paul Condon; Fresno Unified trustee Elizabeth Jonasson Rosas, who has experience in nonprofits, water, planning as well as several major endorsements; and Sanger Unified trustee Brandon Vang who, if elected, would be the first Hmong-American to represent the district. A fifth candidate, Nickolas Wildstar, has been approved as a write-in candidate.
According to the latest campaign finance filings for 2025, as of Feb. 1, Jonasson Rosas has raised nearly $70,000, with Vang a close second at $62,000. The race could lead to a runoff election if no one candidate secures at least 50% plus one of all votes next month.
Jonasson Rosas contends that she has any advantages in the race based on personal connections. As a Fresno Unified trustee of Area 2, which includes Roosevelt High School, she has already represented many communities in District 5 for nearly a decade.
'The people there elected me. A good portion of the district knows me, knows that I fought for them, that I fight for my constituents, that I care, and that I'll do my best, and that I'll bring that same energy to the city council,' Jonasson Rosas said in an interview.
She said her commitment to public service and experience — including water, grants management, education, transportation and urban planning, state and local government — make her the most qualified candidate.
'I think my track record speaks for itself,' she said.
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Cummins said candidates should be evaluated based on their individual qualifications, merits and background. Still, Jonasson Rosas could have an advantage based on her connections, he said.
'I would probably say that when you have a staff member or a family member running, there is an incumbency advantage for those candidates, even though they're not the incumbent,' Cummins said.
'So it does make it harder for new candidates to emerge and to win a seat,' he said.
The District 5 seat is one with a history of representatives who were connected through professional ties.
Former Fresno County Supervisor Sal Quintero held the seat for two terms from 1994 to 2002. After that, Mike Dages – who was Quintero's council assistant – won an election to replace his boss and hired Quintero as his assistant.
When Dages hit his two-term limit, Quintero ran again and won in 2010.
Then, in 2016, Chavez, then Quintero's chief of staff, ran to replace his boss as District 5's representative after serving a four-year term on the Fresno Unified School District board of trustees.
Quintero was elected to the Fresno County Board of Supervisors in 2016 — a seat he held until he was ousted by Chavez in the November election.
Now, Jonasson Rosas is following a similar trajectory in vying for the seat her husband used to hold.
'There's a definite advantage for that person who is affiliated with the previous office holder, and so it probably makes it a little less competitive overall,' Cummins said. 'And generally speaking, more competition in elections is always a good thing, because representatives reflect the desires of their constituents more when the election is competitive.'
Having a connection to the seat raises questions when a candidate is unqualified for a position, such as when they lack political experience, he said.
But regardless of any personal ties, Jonasson Rosas has relevant experience for the role, Cummins said.
'Hopping from the school district board over to a city council race, I would say, is pretty common, and that's usually considered pretty strong background experience for jumping into a city council race,' he said.
Plus, he said, she's not relying on name recognition given she has a different last name from her spouse. 'That's usually an advantage for a candidate,' he said.
Pedro Navarro Cruz, a community advocate who previously lived in District 5 and has been involved in the advocacy for more green space and parks in southeast Fresno, said he thinks the same 'ecosystem of candidates' has been running the seat for years. Cruz is endorsing another candidate, Leon Barraza.
'From my point of view, it's better to mix it up – that's what democracy is all about. New ideas, new spirit, new energy,' he said.
Generally speaking, women running for office tend to get identified with what their husband is doing, Cummins said.
A 2020 academic study published in the Journal of Communication also found that women politicians receive more attention to their personal life compared to men.
But given her ties to the last seat holder, Cummins said, 'you're going to point that out regardless.'
Jonasson Rosas said she's running because of her longstanding commitment to public service – and should be evaluated as a candidate accordingly.
'I'm, at the end of the day, the person that will be making decisions,' she said. 'So it doesn't matter who my husband, who my mom, who my dad were, or any other of my family, frankly, because the person that's going to be answering the phone – it's me.'
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Jonasson Rosas said she has secured most of the major endorsements from the Fresno Police Officers' Association, Fresno Firefighters, Central Labor Council, Building and Construction Trades, Fresno Chamber of Commerce, National Women's Political Caucus, Mayor Jerry Dyer and several council members.
'I think that also speaks volumes,' Jonasson Rosas said. 'I don't think in the history of Fresno, there's been such a sweep.'