Four Nations Face-Off: USA vs. Finland odds, picks and predictions
Kevin Erickson
USA TODAY Sports
Team USA meet Team Finland Thursday in the opening match for both teams at the Four Nations Face-Off Tournament at Bell Centre in Montreal. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's hockey odds around the USA vs. Finlandodds and make our expert hockey picks and predictions.
Team USA projected lines
Line 1: LW Kyle Connor (Jets), C Jack Eichel (Golden Knights), RW Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers)
(Jets), C (Golden Knights), RW (Panthers) Line 2: LW Jake Guentzel (Lightning), C Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs), RW Jack Hughes (Devils)
(Lightning), C (Maple Leafs), RW (Devils) Line 3: LW Brady Tkachuk (Senators), C J.T. Miller (Rangers), RW Matthew Boldy (Wild)
(Senators), C (Rangers), RW (Wild) Line 4: LW Brock Nelson (Islanders), C Vincent Trocheck (Rangers), RW Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)
(Islanders), C (Rangers), RW (Red Wings) Defense 1: LD Jaccob Slavin (Hurricanes), RD Adam Fox (Rangers)
(Hurricanes), RD (Rangers) Defense 2: LD Zach Werenski (Blue Jackets), RD Charlie McAvoy (Bruins)
(Blue Jackets), RD (Bruins) Defense 3: LD Noah Hanifin (Golden Knights), RD Brock Faber (Wild)
(Golden Knights), RD (Wild) Goalies: Connor Hellebuyck (Jets), Jake Oettinger (Stars)
(Jets), (Stars) Scratched: LW Chris Kreider (Rangers), D Jake Sanderson (Senators), G Jeremy Swayman (Bruins)
Team USA enters this game stacked top to bottom. Kreider is on the outside looking in, that's how strong this team is. The difference between USA and rival Canada is goaltending, and, on paper, the Americans look to be much, much deeper in that particular category. While Canada struggled to get by Sweden in overtime Wednesday (4-3), USA should see very little issue with Finland, a team projected to be the weakest in the four-nation field.
Team Finland projected lines
Line 1: LW Artturi Lehkonen (Avalanche), C Aleksander Barkov (Panthers), RW Mikko Rantanen (Hurricanes)
(Avalanche), C (Panthers), RW (Hurricanes) Line 2: LW Roope Hintz (Stars), C Sebastian Aho (Hurricanes), RW Patrik Laine (Canadiens)
(Stars), C (Hurricanes), RW (Canadiens) Line 3: LW Eetu Luostarinen (Panthers), C Anton Lundell (Panthers), RW Mikael Granlund (Stars)
(Panthers), C (Panthers), RW (Stars) Line 4: LW Teuvo Teravainen (Blackhawks), C Erik Haula (Devils), RW Joel Armia (Canadiens)
(Blackhawks), C (Devils), RW (Canadiens) Defense 1: LD Niko Mikkola (Panthers), RD Esa Lindell (Stars)
(Panthers), RD (Stars) Defense 2: LD Urho Vaakanainen (Rangers), RD Nikolas Matinpalo (Senators)
(Rangers), RD (Senators) Defense 3: LD Olli Maatta (Utah), RD Henri Jokiharju (Sabres)
(Utah), RD (Sabres) Goalies: Juuse Saros (Predators), Kevin Lankinen (Canucks)
(Predators), (Canucks) Scratched: RW Kaapo Kakko (Kraken), D Juuso Valimaki (Utah), G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Sabres)
Finland has serviceable goaltending and mediocre defense, but the offensive lines certainly aren't as deep as the Americans ... or the other teams in the tournament for that matter. Finland will lean heavily upon its top 6 forwards to get the job done as there is a precipitous drop-off in talent and likely production with the bottom 6. The roster looks more like a team fighting to get into the playoffs, rather than a world-class, championship squad.
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USA vs. Finland odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : USA -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Finland +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
: USA -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Finland +280 (bet $100 to win $280) Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS) : USA -1.5 (-130) | Finland +1.5 (+110)
: USA -1.5 (-130) | Finland +1.5 (+110) Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)
USA vs. Finland projected goalies
Connor Hellebuyck (34-7-2, 2.07 GAA, .925 SV%, 6 SO) vs. Juuse Saros (11-23-6, 2.95 GAA, .889 SV%, 4 SO)
Hellebuyck is confirmed to start the opener for the Americans, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him go wire-to-wire. The Michigan native is one of the best goaltenders going in the NHL this season, and he is on pace to rack 50 victories and 9 shutouts, both of which would be career high marks.
Saros is confirmed to start for Team Finland. While his win-loss record isn't very good with the struggling Predators, he could see an uptick in production with a lot more offensive firepower supporting him. In his past 5 starts with the Predators, the offense managed just 7 goals of support, or 1.4 goals per game.
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USA vs. Finland picks and predictions
Prediction
USA 5, Finland 2
Backing Team USA (-350) will cost 3½ times the potential return, and that's way too much risk for not nearly enough return.
While tournament favorite Canada struggled with Sweden in the opening match Wednesday in Montreal, the Swedes could easily rise up and win this event. Finland (+280), on the other hand, isn't nearly as talented from top to bottom, and a Suomi championship would literally be "Miracle on Ice 2."
AVOID.
BACK TEAM USA -1.5 (-130), laying the goal and a half. Saros is likely to keep Finland in it for a while, but eventually, the powerful and stacked lines will keep coming for the Americans, wearing down the heavy underdogs. By the end of the second period into the third, look for USA to pull away.
OVER 6 (-115) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at best.
It's going to be tough for Finland to beat Hellebuyck, who will have an even more powerful offense supporting him than he has in Winnipeg.
For USA in this tournament, whether it's Hellebuyck, Oettinger or Swayman starting, it's going to be an uphill battle for the opposition.
The Americans, though, should do most of the heavy lifting to get this one across the finish line for the OVER 6 (-115).
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