
In his sole full day at the NATO summit, Trump faces an alliance further shaped to his liking
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'NATO was broke, and I said, 'You're going to have to pay,'' Trump said Tuesday. 'And we did a whole thing, and now they're paying a lot. Then I said, 'You're going to have to lift it to 4% or 5%, and 5% is better.''
Spending 5% of a country's gross domestic product on defense is 'good,' Trump pronounced, adding, 'It gives them much more power.'
The boost in spending follows years of Trump complaints that other countries weren't paying their fair share for membership in an alliance created as a bulwark against threats from the former Soviet Union. Most NATO countries, with the key exception of Spain, are preparing to endorse the 5% pledge, motivated to bolster their own defenses not just by Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine but also, perhaps, to placate Trump.
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As a candidate in 2016, Trump suggested that he as president would not necessarily heed the alliance's mutual defense guarantees outlined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. In March of this year, he expressed uncertainty that NATO would come to the United States' defense if needed, though the alliance did just that after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
On Tuesday, he told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way to The Hague for the summit that whether he is committed to Article 5 'depends on your definition.'
'There's numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right?' Trump said. 'But I'm committed to being their friends.' He signaled that he would give a more precise definition of what Article 5 means to him once he is at the summit.
Trump also vented to reporters before leaving Washington about the actions by Israel and Iran after his announced ceasefire. He said, in his view, both sides had violated the nascent agreement.
After Trump arrived in the Netherlands, news outlets, including The Associated Press, published stories revealing that a U.S. intelligence report suggested in an early assessment that Iran's nuclear program had been set back only a few months by weekend strikes and was not 'completely and fully obliterated,' as Trump had said.
The White House called the report 'flat-out wrong,' and Trump posted in all-caps on social media early Wednesday that any reporting that the strikes weren't 'completely destroyed' was an attempt to 'demean one of the most successful military strikes in history.'
The White House has not said what other world leaders Trump would meet with one-on-one while in The Hague, but he said he was likely to cross paths with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Time Magazine
16 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
How Bombing Iran May Have Made Nuclear Diplomacy Much Harder
What began as a military campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure may have given way to a more enduring crisis: the collapse of decades-long efforts to contain nuclear proliferation through diplomacy. After days of escalating airstrikes between Israel and Iran that killed hundreds in Iran and dozens in Israel—and the United States' decision to involve itself—one of the most lasting, and difficult to quantify, losses may be the fragile framework of international nuclear cooperation. Read More: Trump Brokers Ceasefire to End '12 Day War' Between Israel and Iran While the full scope of physical damage to Iran's nuclear facilities remains unclear, analysts warn that the attacks may have pushed Iran to the brink of abandoning the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the foundational agreement designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and promote peaceful atomic energy that Iran has been a party to for five-and-a-half decades. Iran is now 'quite likely' to withdraw from the NPT under which it pledged not to develop a bomb, warned Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Outlining 'worst-case scenarios' in an essay for TIME, Vaez suggested: 'Over time, Iran's regime could attempt to reconstitute its nuclear activity from the rubble, only with an explicit aim of fashioning a weapon in the shortest possible time as a means of deterrence in the future.' Read More: Where Iran's Nuclear Program Goes From Here Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., said in a post on X that Iran's nuclear program 'has at best been set back, but certainly not destroyed, while dramatically increasing Tehran's determination to achieve nuclear deterrence.' He added that Iran having a damaged but not fully dismantled nuclear program makes any future peace between Iran and Israel even more precarious. Israel, which is believed to have its own clandestine nuclear weapons program and is not a member of the NPT, has stated that it cannot allow nations hostile to it to develop a nuclear weapon. 'While Trump may have genuinely envisioned a one-and-done,' Parsi said, U.S. intervention at the request of Israel has signaled that, should Israel or Iran choose to reignite the war, Israel will have 'succeeded in trapping him in a long, if not a forever, war.' Read More: In Bombing Iran, Trump Looked Past 80 Years of U.S. Regime Change Mistakes For diplomacy to resume, he argues, 'Trump's only exit out of this is to discard the Israeli red line of zero-enrichment and return to the American red line of no weaponization.' A blow to non-proliferation diplomacy The diplomatic fallout is already materializing in Tehran. Iran's parliamentary national security committee passed the outline of a bill on Monday to suspend Tehran's cooperation with the United Nations' nuclear watchdog—the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—so long as Iran's nuclear sites remain vulnerable to military attack. Committee spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei reportedly told semi-official Tasnim news agency that the bill would mean a suspension in installing surveillance cameras, inspections, and submitting reports to the IAEA. Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said the government is planning to restore its nuclear program as it evaluates what damage has been done. 'Preparations for recovery had already been anticipated, and our plan is to prevent any interruption in production or services,' Eslami said in a statement reportedly carried by government-affiliated Mehr News. Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, told reporters on the sidelines of an emergency IAEA board meeting on Monday that U.S. involvement in the strikes had 'delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow to the international non-proliferation regime conclusively demonstrating that the existing NPT framework has been rendered ineffective.' Scope of physical damage to Iran's nuclear facilities remains unclear The breakdown in diplomacy is unfolding as questions hang over just how significant the physical damage is to Iran's nuclear infrastructure—an element that may carry long-term consequences for non-proliferation efforts. After the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear facilities and risked a wider war, President Donald Trump declared from the White House that 'Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.' 'THE NUCLEAR SITES ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!' President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday. Earlier the same day, he posted: 'IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!' But Iran's nuclear program has at most been set back a few months, according to a reported initial assessment by U.S. intelligence. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary report, which members of the Trump Administration have claimed is wrong, found that Iran's nuclear facilities were damaged, but not severely degraded, and that Iran still has the ability to enrich uranium. Earlier damage assessments by U.S. and Israeli militaries using satellite images of Fordow also suggested that the site had not been obliterated. Read More: Democrats in Congress Fume as Iran Strike Briefing Is Abruptly Cancelled Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a news conference on Sunday that the country is 'calculating the damages' from the strike. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told the U.N. Security Council that there are visible craters at Fordow, and that entrances to tunnels used to store enriched uranium appeared to have been hit at Isfahan. But he also cautioned that 'no one, including the IAEA, is in a position to assess the underground damage.' Some observers believe Iran may have preemptively moved enriched uranium to undisclosed locations. The IAEA confirmed last week it was unable to track Iran's stockpile amid the ongoing bombardment. Iran had previously warned the IAEA that its stockpile, which is typically secured at Isfahan, could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack. Grossi said after the U.S. strikes that 'Iran has informed the IAEA there has been no increase in off-site radiation levels at all three sites,' suggesting that the strikes may not have hit uranium stores directly. Still, he urged Iran to disclose the new location of any relocated nuclear material and reaffirmed Tehran's obligations under the treaty. Read More: Breaking Down the Environmental Risks From Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Enrichment Sites Iran's legislative response suggests a hardening stance. 'Iran has no plans for non-peaceful activities, but the world witnessed clearly that the IAEA has not honored any of its commitments and has turned into a political instrument,' parliamentary speaker Mohammed-Bagher Ghalibaf said during Monday's session. 'This war makes it more, not less, likely that the Iranian government will eventually build a nuclear weapon,' argues Sara Haghdoosti, executive director of Win Without War, a progressive Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group. 'Israeli—or even U.S.—airstrikes cannot wipe out the knowledge behind the nuclear program or reliably destroy all centrifuges and uranium in a country over twice the size of Texas.' Iran more likely to withdraw from nuclear diplomacy Whether Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon remains in dispute. U.S. intelligence concluded earlier this year that the country had no plans to develop a nuclear weapon, while Trump and Israeli officials have insisted it did. Iran has maintained that its uranium enrichment is in line with its right to peaceful enrichment for energy purposes under the NPT. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that view on Tuesday, reportedly telling regional officials that Iran is interested only in pursuing its 'legitimate rights' and has no ambitions 'to acquire nuclear weapons.' Iran and the U.S. had been in the midst of protracted talks centered on Iran's nuclear program when Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran. The war put a halt to further talks with the U.S.—although Iran continued talks with European officials—and it is unclear whether they will begin again. Several agencies and countries, including the European Union and Grossi, have urged Iran to return to the negotiating table. But Iran's envoy to the U.N. Ali Bahreini said on Sunday that it can't return to something 'it never left.' He said the NPT has been 'manipulated into a political weapon' and 'exploited as a pretext for aggression and unlawful action.' Read More: A New Middle East Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes Iran ratified the treaty in 1970, and signed another deal with former President Barack Obama in 2015 agreeing that its nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful in exchange for the relief of economic sanctions. Trump exited the deal in 2018 during his first term, reimposing heavy sanctions on Iran, which pushed Iran to restart some nuclear operations. Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that Iran's collaboration with the IAEA as a member of the NPT has clearly not benefited or protected Tehran. 'Iran doesn't have to be there,' Izadi said, 'given the fact that Iranian nuclear sites that were under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that were under the monitoring of [the IAEA], were attacked.' Haghdoosti, the Win Without War activist, tells TIME that the airstrikes on Iran, which the Trump Administration has framed as part of a deliberate strategy to pursue 'peace through strength,' will erode diplomatic efforts around nuclear programs for all countries now and in the future. 'The lesson of this war for the Iranian government and any other government contemplating acquiring nuclear weapons is that even if the U.S. is negotiating with you to end that pursuit, it will still support—and even join—a war against you,' Haghdoosti says. 'That's a strong incentive for governments to skip diplomacy entirely and go straight to getting a nuclear weapon.'

17 minutes ago
Trump's 'obliteration' strike claims undercut urgency of negotiations with Iran: Analysis
While President Trump has repeatedly declared that the United States' military strikes on key Iranian enrichment and research sites "totally obliterated" the country's nuclear facility, the intelligence community and other officials within his administration have quietly insisted that reaching a diplomatic solution was just as critical as ever. On Tuesday, multiple officials told ABC News that an initial intelligence report assessed that the attack on Iranian facilities over the weekend did not completely destroy the country's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months. In the wake of the strikes, European allies have also been attempting to make the case for renewed nuclear diplomacy to Trump administration officials, and a source familiar with the conversations says Secretary of State Marco Rubio has acknowledged that there's still a need for a diplomatic solution. But publicly, the Trump administration has sent mixed messages on the urgency behind renewed negotiations with Iran. "Iran's not going to have a nuclear weapon," the president told reporters on Tuesday. "I think it's the last thing on their mind right now." As he travelled to The Hague for a summit of NATO leaders, President Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that China would be permitted to purchase oil from Iran. Officials within the Trump administration didn't answer questions on whether the president was indicating he would lift any sanctions on Iran, but analysts predicted the comments could signal a shift toward lax enforcement of the trade restrictions targeting the country. On Tuesday, public-facing officials in Washington also notably declined to describe the U.S. approach to Iran as "maximum pressure"-- the often-repeated phrase used by the administration to refer to the sanctions campaign waged against the regime following the president's decision to leave an Obama-era nuclear deal with the country in 2018. Sources say Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has been in contact with Iran throughout the conflict with Israel, but so far, U.S. officials have not pushed plans for another face-to-face meeting. "A return to diplomacy must start as soon as possible," said Dana Stroul, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. "There was never going to be military operations, either Israeli operations or US military operations, that could completely eliminate Iran's program," said Stroul, who was the Pentagon's top Middle East official between 2020 and 2023. "And we already know that the stockpile of enriched uranium was moved. We don't know where it is, and we know that some of Iran's nuclear facilities have been damaged but not eliminated." Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, indicated on Monday that he believes Iran's enriched uranium has been moved -- but said that the nuclear watchdog currently has no accounting of it. When asked about the urgency of restarting nuclear negotiations, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated the president was "confident" Iran could not obtain a nuclear weapon. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," she said. "And the understanding is now they're not going to have one." "How we move forward from here is up to the president of the United States," Bruce added. Iran and the U.S., in the spring of this year, held five rounds of indirect talks, which the State Department at the time did not call "negotiations," related to Tehran's nuclear program. If the sides came together again, talks would again hinge on the president's key demand that Iran vow not to enrich uranium on its own soil, said Stroul, who is now the director of research and a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The question is whether the Trump administration is going to double down and demand that Iran give up all domestic enrichment and complete the dismantling of its facilities," she said. "And that presumably would happen under the auspices of the IAEA, which is why the Director General, Rafael Grossi, is asking to get into Tehran as fast as possible." Public statements from Iran have been focused on portraying the regime's strength rather than diplomacy, as the country's officials have signaled it will swiftly restore its damaged nuclear program. "The plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services," Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said Tuesday, according to the country's state media. Andrea Strickler, the deputy director of the nonproliferation and biodefense program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, says Iran's vow is reason for the Trump administration to double down on diplomacy. "To prohibit Iran from 'building back better' its nuclear threat, Washington should seek a negotiated solution with the regime requiring its full, permanent nuclear dismantlement," she said, emphasizing that a deal "must turn over all remaining secret assets like enriched uranium, centrifuges, and facilities." Grossi's repeated comments that the IAEA is unaware of the uranium's whereabouts have raised concerns among proliferation experts. "While Iran's ability to enrich uranium has been severely degraded, the existence of this already 60 percent enriched material means that a significant barrier to weaponization has already been overcome," said Joseph Rodgers, deputy director and fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The longer the location of this highly enriched uranium stockpile remains unknown, the greater the potential for a proliferation crisis," Rodgers continued. Vice President JD Vance indicated in an interview with ABC News' Jon Karl on Sunday that the Trump administration would "work with" Iran to "do something with that fuel," but it's unclear if any progress has been made on that front. Vance and other U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have said the U.S. has continued to communicate with Iran via intermediaries. Hegseth said Sunday, "both public and private messages" were being "directly delivered to the Iranians, giving them every opportunity to come to the table." Stroul said the weekend strikes on Iran's nuclear sites "marked a decisive shift" in Washington's approach to Iran's nuclear program, and that "the regime in Tehran has to understand the Americans are willing to put serious skin in the game in an offensive way." "Iran is vulnerable diplomatically," she said, arguing the US no longer has a "containment" posture toward Iran and that the president is in a position to "demand the completion of the dismantling of the infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program, and to insist that the regime give up any future desire to enrich uranium domestically."


Bloomberg
20 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Portugal Reiterates It Will Meet Defense Spending Goal in 2025
Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro reiterated his country will reach a target for investment in defense to increase to 2% of gross domestic product in 2025, while sticking to fiscal discipline. Portugal is among countries that haven't met that existing NATO goal yet, with its defense spending reaching an estimated 1.55% of GDP in 2024. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte now wants countries in the alliance to back a new core defense spending target of 3.5% of national output, as well as an additional 1.5% of GDP for defense-related spending.