2025 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
2025 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, hosted by Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. The first round begins on Thursday morning, with Scottie Scheffler opening the week as the heavy favorite to win his third straight start.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scheffler is +225 to win this week, with the next-closest players being Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood at +2200. The world's No. 1 player ran away from the field to win the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow on Sunday after winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson by 8 shots earlier this month. He's never won this event before, but he's finished second twice and third once in the last 3 years.
Colonial Country Club is much shorter than Quail Hollow was last week, coming in at 7,289 yards and playing as a par 70. The winning score has ranged from 8-under par to 21-under since 2010, though it's been 9-under or worse in 2 of the last 3 years. It features narrower fairways, which are lined by trees, emphasizing the need for accuracy off the tee. Davis Riley won last year at 14-under 266. He's at +4000 to win.
Charles Schwab Challenge: Best outright winner bets
Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Aaron Rai (+550)
Rai finished the PGA Championship tied for 19th, gaining the third-most strokes of any player on approach shots. Iron play will be a big determining factor this week at Colonial and Rai is one of the best in the game when he can find the fairway.
J.T. Poston (+600)
Poston struggled off the tee and scrambling around the greens at the PGA Championship, en route to a fifth-place finish at Quail Hollow. He was seventh in SG: approach, which shows how dialed in he was with his irons. That sets him up well for another strong week in Fort Worth.
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Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-10 picks
Brian Harman (+400)
Harman was outmatched by Quail Hollow with its demand for length off the tee and he'll be more at home at Colonial this week. In his last 10 starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he's only finished worse than 31st once, which was a missed cut in 2022.
Davis Thompson (+350)
Thompson had been playing some good golf before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, making 5 cuts in a row and finishing 27th or better in 4 straight starts. He finished 17th at this event last year, which was his first time playing it, so he's got some course experience with him this time.
Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-20 picks
Akshay Bhatia (+250)
Bhatia's odds are getting pretty long due to some recent struggles so this might be a good buy-low opportunity for a top-20 this week. He's a great iron player and is usually relatively accurate with his driver, which is a good recipe for Colonial.
Lucas Glover (+260)
Glover has long been one of the best iron players on tour, ranking 20th in SG: approach last week at the PGA Championship. He came in 12th at this event last year and is worth a look again this week.
Kurt Kitayama (+320)
Kitayama gained 1.80 strokes on approach last week at the PGA Championship despite missing the cut. He came in 40th in 2022 and 29th last year at the Charles Schwab Challenge, making this his third career appearance at the event.
Charles Schwab Challenge – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Brian Harman (+100) vs. Si Woo Kim (-125)
Going back to Harman here against Kim, who played really well at the PGA Championship. Harman has extensive experience at Colonial compared to Kim, who has missed the cut in 4 of his last 7 appearances at this event (excluding WD in 2021).
Charles Schwab Challenge – Top English
Aaron Rai (+200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+150) is the favorite to be the top Englishman this week but Rai has a good course history and is coming off an impressive showing at the PGA Championship where he tied for 19th.
Charles Schwab Challenge – Top South African
Erik van Rooyen (+188)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is -110 to be the top South African, but he hasn't finished better than 42nd since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March when he tied for 19th. van Rooyen, meanwhile, finished second to Scheffler at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Charles Schwab Challenge – First-round leader
Aaron Rai (+4000)
Rai has finished between 12th and 38th in this event the last 3 years, so he's played well in the past. He's also 23rd in first-round scoring average this season, showing he often gets off to positive starts.
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