NHL trade deadline aftermath: New Stanley Cup favorites emerge as dust settles

New York Times

11-03-2025

The trade deadline is in the rearview and once again it featured an epic escalation of deals across the contending class. Now, it's time to sort through the aftermath.
The top teams operate under a 'keeping up with Joneses' mentality, which led to many of the league's best teams shoring up considerably at big prices. It was either pay up or be left behind.
Advertisement
Every year we take stock in the Stanley Cup race after the deadline dust settles. It's a natural point in the season to assess what each team has done to date, what they've added to help with that, and where they land relative to the field.
We don't know which moves will work and which ones won't. Nor do we know how each player will fit. But we can always make an educated guess based on how each team looks on paper.
Here's how the Stanley Cup field looks, separated into five categories.
Data as of March 10. All ratings are to the nearest whole number.
The best chance to win it all: 12 percent or higher
Florida Panthers
Stanley Cup chances: 16 percent
The Panthers went huge at this year's deadline, adding Seth Jones and Brad Marchand. No other team added a top-six forward and a top-pair defenseman, and it's created some massive repercussions in the Stanley Cup field.
Before the deadline, Florida looked likely to finish in the dreaded 2 vs. 3 matchup with some lineup holes that left them vulnerable to an upset. The top six could've used another impact winger, and there was still a massive void left from Brandon Montour's departure. The Panthers are now arguably the deepest and most star-studded team; they have an extremely good top end matched by very few weak links. Florida's Cup chances have basically doubled over the last couple of weeks.
Jones is the prize pickup here, an offensive catalyst from the back end and a perfect fit for what the Panthers needed. That was a point of weakness without Montour (and Oliver Ekman-Larsson), one that Jones' presence likely solves. His ratings may not look as stellar as his reputation, but it feels likely that Florida will be able to maximize his value in a second-pair role. He's a do-it-all type with strong puck-moving ability.
Advertisement
Marchand is a luxury that considerably beefs up an already strong top six. Florida is right there with Tampa Bay and Edmonton in that regard, though the main draw is arguably Marchand adding to the second line's already tenacious identity. Marchand, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk could be one of the most annoying lines in league history. Marchand's presence also pushes Evan Rodrigues down to the bottom six and Jesper Boqvist to the fourth line — both areas in which they grade out favorably relative to league average.
With this lineup, Florida's lone potential Achilles heel is Sergei Bobrovsky in net — which is hardly a significant weakness, if one at all. Even if his play has dipped a tad this season with age, the Stanley Cup winner has been incredible in back-to-back runs to the Final.
This Panthers team is the team to beat, looking every bit as dangerous as the one that went the distance last season. There's a very good chance the Stanley Cup stays in the Sunshine State this season.
Dallas Stars
Stanley Cup chances: 13 percent
Top to bottom, I can't recall a stronger forward group than the one Dallas will run out come playoff time. This team is as deep as it gets after adding Mikael Granlund a month ago and Mikko Rantanen on deadline day. The Stars came away with the deadline's ultimate prize, a game-changer for the West's Stanley Cup landscape. The Stars, an already elite team, immediately jumped into the top tier as the team to beat.
Rantanen delivers some sizeable offensive oomph to the team's top end, a vulnerability that was definitely felt against Edmonton in last year's conference final matchup. His Net Rating is down a little bit due to his unproductive time in Carolina, but he's usually in the plus-15 to plus-20 range. Rantanen is a major add, someone who can help create offense and break games wide open. He should thrive next to Dallas' other big guns and it's a huge plus that his game seems to elevate in the playoffs.
Advertisement
The Stars' top line looks stacked and they easily have the best middle six in the league. Add a fourth line that can play to that mix and the Stars' attack looks lethal. They're projected to have the league's best offense for good reason.
On defense, they have some elite players and will look like a force once Miro Heiskanen returns. The emergence of Thomas Harley is huge and Esa Lindell remains one of the league's best defensive defensemen. But the drop-off after that is quite stark, leaving the Stars vulnerable. It would've been nice to see Dallas add a true top four defenseman as I'm skeptical Cody Ceci (or Matt Dumba or Ilya Lyubushkin or Lian Bichsel or Brendan Smith) can be that come playoff time. That may hinder what the team's stacked forward group can accomplish whenever the top three defensemen aren't on the ice.
At the very least, Jake Oettinger is back on his game this season, saving 15.6 goals above expected. He grades out as a solid starter with elite potential. That should mitigate some of the holes on Dallas' blue line, but the potential for him slipping during the series is there — we've seen it at times over the last two playoffs.
The Stars are a powerhouse and look primed to win the West this season. The competition will be fierce, but Dallas will be in the driver's seat in every series as the favorite. They're the league's best team and while the West is tough enough to drop their odds below Florida's, it looks like it could be Dallas' year.
Edmonton Oilers
Stanley Cup chances: 12 percent
The Oilers probably look exactly as you expected.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are a terrifying one-two punch down the middle. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — with McDavid — still form the basis of an elite first line. And the defense group led by Evan Bouchard is extremely deep, with offensive generation from the blue line being a major source of strength. Jake Walman's addition is a big one in that regard and that was on full display in his debut against Dallas. Going into the playoffs with him instead of Cody Ceci is a big deal.
Advertisement
If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, those will be the tenets of victory as their strong links remain strong.
But man, are their weak links ever weak. And there are a lot of them. The Oilers have eight below-average players relative to their role which is very concerning compared to other contenders. Florida and Dallas both have just three with the average among relevant playoff teams being 4.7.
Draisaitl's wingers, whoever they end up being during the playoffs, don't compare favorably to other top-six wingers. The bottom six is fairly thin, even after adding Trent Frederic. And Stuart Skinner is probably the weakest starter on any playoff team, his rating buoyed only by strong regular season priors that he hasn't been able to repeat this season or in the playoffs.
The Oilers have a lot of holes and that has potential to be their demise.
It's a fascinating push-pull in Edmonton where, on balance, the pros far outweigh the cons — enough to give the Oilers a 12 percent chance of winning. McDavid and Draisaitl are that good and the defense group looks special, by far the best in this era of Oilers hockey. But those cons are hard to ignore, extreme pressure points that can make this season go south, quickly undoing any good brought about by the team's best players.
Once again, it will take some serious heroics by McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard to carry this team. They're more than capable, but at this stage of the build, they shouldn't have to be asked to shoulder this much burden.
The biggest threats to the favorites: 8 percent to 12 percent
Winnipeg Jets
Stanley Cup chances: 9 percent
The Jets had a disappointing deadline, one that didn't move the needle at all. Given what every other contender did, Winnipeg's Cup chances took a small hit post-deadline. The Jets entered deadline day as one of the favorites to win this year, thanks to a deep roster headlined by the best goalie in the world. They exited it as the eighth-best team.
Advertisement
The Jets still have the fourth-best Stanley Cup odds, but that's only because of their sizeable lead in the Central Division which they have an 80 percent chance of winning. Avoiding the dreaded 2 vs. 3 matchup is important, but the good news stops there.
Looking at the lineup above shows two clear needs for Winnipeg: 2C and the third pair. Neither were properly addressed.
Vladislav Namestnikov is a fine player, but he's miscast for his current role, a vulnerability that could be seriously exposed come playoff time. Had the Jets been able to pick up Brock Nelson, they'd be in the favorites tier right now. They did nothing instead. As for the third pair, I'm skeptical that Luke Schenn is much of an upgrade over what they already have, which is not ideal given the struggles of the third pair. Not upgrading on Logan Stanley, in particular, may prove costly.
It's a deadline of what could have been for Winnipeg, but at the end of the day, the Jets are still a contender. This is still a great team made elite by the otherworldly ability of Connor Hellebuyck, a team that will be extremely difficult to knock off this season. The rejuvenation of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor's games have not gone unnoticed, nor has the strength of the top four anchored by Josh Morrissey. Dylan Samberg has been a revelation.
The Jets are not just Hellebuyck and friends anymore — they're an elite team that can win it all. But in a year where that's finally possible, it's disheartening that they weren't able to do more to address their needs. As the rest of the powers in the West loaded up, the Jets got left behind. We'll see if the roster they already had will be good enough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Stanley Cup chances: 9 percent
The Hurricanes are still a strong team, even after the Mikko Rantanen situation. Sebastian Aho is a strong 1C, Seth Jarvis is establishing himself as an elite two-way winger and Jaccob Slavin is one of the best defensive defenders in the league. Combine that with a whole bunch of depth throughout the lineup and the Hurricanes will be a tough out once again.
But without the oomph Rantanen (or Martin Necas) provides, the same problems still persist with Carolina's roster. The Hurricanes are a good defensive team, but can they score enough when it matters? That's tough to say and a down year from Andrei Svechnikov doesn't help. As a result, this version of the Hurricanes exits the deadline with the ninth best Net Rating — essentially an average playoff team.
Advertisement
And yet, here they are with the sixth-best Cup odds. That's because of Carolina's likely path: a first-round matchup against a team that's unlikely to be much of a threat (New Jersey or Columbus), and then a likely second-round matchup with the Capitals, who the model isn't high on.
Essentially, every other contender would likely have to play a top-eight team (according to the model) in one of the first two rounds. Some will have to get through two. The Hurricanes won't see one until the third round and end up with the highest odds to reach the conference final of any team as a result. Their odds drop a lot after that — just not enough to land in a lower tier.
Just getting to the top four is a big part of the battle and Carolina's strong chance of doing so is what makes the Hurricanes a contender this year — even if the roster doesn't quite look the part on paper.
The teams that can do damage, but face a difficult path: 4 percent to 8 percent
Toronto Maple Leafs
Stanley Cup chances: 8 percent
If you've been wondering why Toronto's Cup odds have been high all season despite the team looking strangely mid for most of it, the answer is right there in the depth chart: Anthony Stolarz, with a bafflingly high Net Rating. Toronto's skaters rank eighth in the league, well behind all the other top teams, but Stolarz is, apparently, the great equalizer.
Here's why that is. Over the last two years, only Hellebuyck has saved more goals above expected than Stolarz's 43.2. And he's done that over just 51 games. On a per-game basis, here are the top 10 among goalies that have played 50 games.
Anthony Stolarz: 0.85
Connor Hellebuyck: 0.74
Jacob Markstrom: 0.44
Sam Montembeault: 0.43
Logan Thompson: 0.43
Igor Shesterkin: 0.42
Thatcher Demko: 0.40
Linus Ullmark: 0.40
Joey Daccord: 0.38
Lukas Dostal: 0.36
Advertisement
The model can only regress a small sample so much when the results are that bafflingly good.
What that means is the Leafs are now considered a team that lives and dies by its goalie, a potentially terrifying thought given the randomness of the position — and Stolarz's light resume. Considering the Leafs used to have to win despite goaltending, though, it may be a comforting thought knowing that the team is in relatively safe hands with Stolarz.
For Toronto to win it all and go deep in a tough division, though, the Leafs will need to play a lot better in front of their elite goaltending. That starts with Auston Matthews looking more like himself and other top players tilting the ice more. But at the very least, the Leafs had a good deadline plugging holes. Scott Laughton makes the bottom six more formidable while Brandon Carlo's game should help get the most out of Morgan Rielly.
The Leafs are not a perfect team and have weirdly struggled to control the puck this season. The team's 47.5 percent expected goals rate since January 1, worst among playoff teams, has not gone unnoticed and is why the team's skaters don't grade out as strongly as usual. The model is performing a balancing act between what the team once was and what they are now. The underlying result is a team that gets 54 percent of the goals at five-on-five — same as usual — but their method of getting there does look less sustainable, which is a concern.
The talent on the roster is there to control the scoring chance battle more going forward, especially with Laughton and Carlo. The biggest reason to be-Leaf right now is that the Leafs finally have the goaltending to go the distance — they just can't keep using it as a crutch.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup chances: 8 percent
Going into the deadline, everyone knew Tampa Bay's strengths … and weaknesses. The Lightning had a gaping hole at second line right wing and the bottom six looked really concerning.
In one fell swoop, the Lightning solved those problems by acquiring Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde. The team's forward group immediately looks stronger now that it's no longer being weighed down by flotsam. Both Bjorkstrand and Gourde shore up the team's defensive game and give the Lightning some flexibility in the top nine.
The Lightning, whose plus-55 goal differential ranks third in the league, are a serious threat to win it all. By Net Rating, they are a top-five team. So why are their Cup chances so low? It's because of the brutal competition in the Atlantic with Florida (second in Net Rating) and Toronto (sixth), both ahead of Tampa Bay in the standings. That means a difficult Cup path, one where they're likely on the road in the first two rounds. Winning the division would provide a big boost to Tampa Bay's odds, but even finishing second would help in the opening round.
The core remains elite, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been excellent of late and the new additions offer reinforcement. But the Atlantic gauntlet is no joke — getting through that is Tampa Bay's biggest hurdle.
Vegas Golden Knights
Stanley Cup chances: 7 percent
The shiver that went down everyone's spine when the Vegas Golden Knights tweeted 'hi' is the kind of feeling only a true villain can unleash. The tweet didn't lead to any big deals on deadline day, but that's okay because a run of truly great hockey has the Golden Knights looking like a serious Stanley Cup threat this year. Since Jan. 1, Vegas' 57.4 percent xG ranks second behind only Florida. The results may not have followed (51.2 percent goal rate), but that's impressive and has led to a significant bump in the model. Vegas' projected Net Rating of plus-46 ranks seventh.
Advertisement
There was some model skepticism with Vegas before the season and early in it, mainly due to the team's winger situation. Things looked bleak, but credit where credit is due, things look much better now. Pavel Dorofeyev has been a revelation, Ivan Barbashev has returned to his Cup-winning form, and Victor Olofsson has been a pleasant surprise. Couple that with Mark Stone looking vintage and what was once a problem now looks solid. The Golden Knights went a step further by adding Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith, bolstering their middle six.
From top to bottom, the roster looks championship-calibrer and there should be no complaints about what Vegas has built — it's just about liking the other West juggernauts a little bit more. The Stars and Avalanche beefed up considerably, while the Oilers still have McDavid and Draisaitl leading the way. That puts Vegas fourth in the pecking order, but the Golden Knights will likely only be favored in the opening round. That the Golden Knights have a comfortable division lead helps their chances, but after that is where things get tough. That's what keeps them out of the tier above.
Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup chances: 6 percent
The Avalanche have not been messing around this season. Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Jack Drury, Ryan Lindgren, Mackenzie Blackwood — if there was a way to make the Avalanche a better team, the Avalanche were aggressive about it. The model now rates Colorado as the league's fourth-best team.
Nelson was a substantial pickup, one that finally fills their longstanding hole at 2C. Charlie Coyle is a nice insurance policy behind him, giving the Avalanche one of the best top-three center groups in the league, naturally led by Nathan MacKinnon. On the blue line, Ryan Lindgren adds some stability to the third pair where he should be better in a reduced role and at the very least an improvement over Calvin de Haan. Colorado had a strong deadline.
But that doesn't change the predicament Colorado is in, one that leaves the Avalanche on a collision course for a matchup against the Stars in the opening round. If not the Stars, it's a date with the Golden Knights, Jets or Oilers on the road — pick your poison.
Potential Cup paths play a pivotal role when it comes to the odds of winning. Put Colorado in Carolina's position, for example, and the team's odds jump to 11.7 percent (while Carolina's would drop to 4.4 percent). It's a huge deal.
Advertisement
While the Avalanche could absolutely beat any one of their likely opponents, the likelihood of having to play two of them just to make it to the conference final is not ideal. That one of the few teams the Avalanche would be underdogs against, Dallas, is their likeliest first-round opponent is also not ideal.
On paper, the Avalanche are a terrifying team. But the path that lies ahead of them to go the distance may be just as scary.
Washinton Capitals
Stanley Cup chances: 5 percent
The Capitals have had a magical season and the model was slowly buying into that. Logan Thompson is now rated as one of the league's best starters, the team's defense corps is a major source of strength and the top-six forwards look better, too. Pierre-Luc Dubois' line with Tom Wilson has been a force. Washington's strength is its depth where every line and pair can do damage, powered by a coach who knows how to maximize talent. The Capitals are a good team, there is no denying that.
The Capitals may be doing something special that the model does not capture. But when one of the league's lowest-scoring teams last season is suddenly threatening to have the highest five-on-five shooting percentage of any team in the analytics era, there is reason for skepticism. Especially without much star power to believe in — similar to the 2022-23 Kraken who found surprising success in similar fashion. That's why the buy-in from the model has come at a glacial pace.
No team, no matter how good, shoots 11 percent forever. On top of that, it's a bit troubling that after a hot start, the Capitals have been a middle-of-the-road possession team since, relying heavily on that finishing touch and elite goaltending. This isn't like last year's Canucks. That team bought in to become a better team under the hood after going on a PDO bender to start the season. The Capitals have lacked the same fundamentals and don't have the type of history that suggests to expect it going forward.
Then the deadline came and Washington's only addition was Anthony Beauvillier. Compared to the other contenders, that's an underwhelming deal that doesn't move the needle much, creating further separation between the Capitals and the other top teams in the East.
Washington has a real shot to win it all, especially in a soft Metropolitan Division. Ryan Leonard potentially joining the playoff roster could add a further spark to that. The Capitals have proven themselves all season, but it's still a bit hard to be sold on this group.
The teams that can make noise, if everything goes right: 2 percent to 4 percent
Los Angeles Kings
Stanley Cup chances: 3 percent
This might be the best version of the Kings in their second era of playoff hockey with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. They're even deeper than usual and defensively sound across the board. Their plus-29 Defensive Rating makes the Kings the third-best defensive team in the league. That's their strength that they'll lean on, backed by three elite defensive centers and three elite defensive defensemen.
Advertisement
That's enough to make the Kings a dark horse, but that may not mean much in a stacked West. Their best may not be good enough and that starts at the top of the lineup, as usual. It's a fundamental issue with the roster that's been exposed in three straight first-round losses to the Oilers. It would be an issue against almost every team in the West as the Kings do not have an offensive answer for Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel or Mikko Rantanen. The Kings may be deep, but their lack of game-breaking difference-makers continues to be an issue.
That doesn't mean the Kings can't win or go deep. Their defensive might makes them a perfect foil against those star players and this is their best effort in that regard. But without some elite offensive talent to go with it, the odds will continue to be stacked against them relative to the league's powerhouse teams. Another Round 1 date with the Oilers looms large.
The likely playoffs teams that face a very difficult road in the playoffs: 0 percent to 2 percent
New Jersey Devils: The Jack Hughes injury was the final blow in New Jersey's slow descent down this list over the previous two months. A weak deadline and blue line injuries only sealed it. The Devils should still make the playoffs, but even with Hughes they looked like first-round fodder. Without him, it's hard to see them making a series against an actual contender interesting.
Minnesota Wild: After a strong start, Filip Gustavsson's play has faded a bit. In terms of GSAx per game, he's now in the bottom third of starting goalies. The model was already a bit sour on him given last season and views goaltending as a significant weakness going into the playoffs. It's also not really enamored by the lack of offensive ability on the back end. The forward group is strong enough to compensate, but compared to the best of the West, this Wild team still has a ways to go.
Ottawa Senators: The Senators' rise to playoff caliber has been nice to witness, but the next step to contention will be a bigger challenge. The core is getting there, but compared to the league's best teams, Ottawa's top players do fall behind. The Senators could make things interesting, especially if newcomer Dylan Cozens gets back on track. But it's more likely they're still a year away from doing real damage.
Vancouver Canucks: As long as Elias Pettersson continues to look like a shade of himself and Thatcher Demko remains injured (and also not himself), the Canucks have next to no shot at winning the Stanley Cup. The blue line looks stronger now, but there isn't enough offensive punch across the board.
Advertisement
Columbus Blue Jackets: This year's greatest story. After a big win against the Rangers on Sunday, the Blue Jackets are sitting pretty with a 62 percent chance of making the playoffs. Anything deeper though looks unlikely as the Blue Jackets still struggle defensively with a top end that, while great this season, doesn't match up with other contenders yet. Then again, even getting to this point was extremely unlikely to begin with. Who says the magic can't continue?
Data via Evolving Hockey
(Top photo of Nathan MacKinnon and Esa Lindell: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)