France doubles down on opposition to new nuclear states, top official says

Japan Times

21 hours ago

As more countries eye letting the atomic genie out of the bottle by building their own nukes, French officials are joining their American counterparts in taking a firm stance against such a possibility, a top French official has said.
With North Korea and China ramping up their nuclear capabilities, calls are growing louder in countries such as South Korea to develop their own nukes, particularly amid rising fears that holes may be emerging in the U.S. 'nuclear umbrella.'
Instead, said Guillaume Ollagnier, director general of strategic, security and disarmament affairs at the French Foreign Ministry, the existing nonproliferation architecture should be further strengthened — lest a nuclear arms race erupt.
Speaking with The Japan Times in an interview last week, Ollagnier called the U.N. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed by 191 countries, 'a cornerstone of our collective security,' adding that nonproliferation is a 'norm that is more essential than ever.'
'We don't see any perspective for changing our policy on that question,' he said following meetings with Japanese officials in Tokyo amid preparations for next spring's NPT review conference.
Yet while Washington could still exert significant pressure on allies in Asia and elsewhere to drop the idea, it's unclear what tools France, which has territories in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, would have to prevent others from building nukes.
Ollagnier's remarks come as doubts fester in parts of Asia over the U.S. commitment to defend its allies and partners.
Public opinion polling in South Korea, for example, has consistently shown in recent years that a majority of the population — sometimes over 70% — support the launch of an indigenous nuclear weapons program amid these doubts and North Korea's own growing nuclear and missile arsenal.
Compounding the issue is U.S. President Donald Trump's transactional approach to foreign and defense policy, as well as his stated desire to restart talks with North Korea and the possibility of an arms-control deal that allows it to keep its nuclear arsenal.
The debate on nuclear weapons has also reached ostensibly pacifist Japan, albeit to a far lesser extent.
French President Emmanuel Macron (center) looks on as he stands with Capt. Jerome Halle (right), commanding officer of the SSBN submarine Le Terrible, and Chief of the Special General Staff Adm. Bernard Rogel (second right) and crew during a visit to the missile room of the vessel, while at sea on July 4, 2017. |
POOL / VIA REUTERS
While many public opinion polls show a vast majority of Japanese oppose the country acquiring nuclear weapons, other surveys point to growing doubt that the U.S. will protect Japan in a military crisis.
Given that Japan faces three nuclear-armed neighbors, former senior government and Self-Defense Forces officials have even called for a review of the country's vaunted three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing or allowing nukes to be introduced into Japan.
Much of this shift has been attributed to China and North Korea's focus on their own nuclear stockpiles.
According to the Pentagon, Beijing's nuclear arsenal had likely surpassed 600 operational warheads as of mid-2024, part of a buildup projected to continue after 2030, when China is expected to field over 1,000 nukes.
Since the Cold War, Japan — like several other U.S. allies both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific — has relied on Washington's extended deterrence strategy, or the U.S. commitment to using its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to protect allies and deter attacks.
The strategy, however, is not legally binding, and as tensions with Japan's neighbors rise and Trump continues to approach alliances from a transactional standpoint, some fear the U.S. extended deterrence commitment could crumble.
As far as international nonproliferation agreements go, Japan — the sole country to have been attacked with nuclear weapons — continues to push for a nuke-free world, though it has refused to participate in the U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which currently has 94 signatories.
The government's top spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, said in March that participating in the pact would send the 'wrong message' about Japanese policy, since U.S. nuclear deterrence is crucial to the country's security.
Instead, Japan — just like France — is a member of the NPT. But reaching consensus among the signatories has recently proven elusive.
'It's true that debates within the NPT context during the past three preparatory committees have proven to be very difficult,' Ollagnier said.
'There are a number of structural elements that make discussions ... difficult,' the diplomat added, pointing to a group of NPT signatory countries calling for full and immediate disarmament while others, like France, push for what he called a 'more pragmatic' approach of gradually reducing the number of warheads.
'France is advocating for concrete progress without trying to immediately reach total disarmament,' he said, calling an immediate move 'impossible.'
Ollagnier's remarks came as French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated in March that Paris would be open to extending its nuclear deterrent to neighboring countries amid concerns over the escalating conflict in Ukraine, Russian nuclear saber-rattling and Trump's seemingly conciliatory tone toward Moscow.
Ollagnier clarified, though, that Paris is not seeking to replace the U.S. nuclear shield over Europe but rather complement it as a way of signaling to Moscow.
He also noted that France is already engaged in a strategic dialogue with European partners on the issue, but declined to provide comments on the status of the negotiations, citing 'the need for an appropriate mix of clarity and ambiguity.'
When asked whether Paris would also extend its nuclear deterrent to protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific, Ollagnier gave a similar ambiguous reply: 'French deterrence warrants the protection of France's vital interests, and France is an Indo-Pacific nation.'