Trump's plan for Gaza might gift Israel a lasting peace
Soon after his inauguration, President Trump proposed a controversial plan that sent shock waves across the Middle East. He suggested to relocate roughly a million and half Palestinians out of Gaza and into neighbouring countries, while Gaza undergoes comprehensive reconstruction.
On the surface, this seems unrealistic. However, the war sparked by Hamas's massacre of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of some 250 people on October 7, 2023, has left Gaza in ruins, which may require a radical solution.
Trump's 'out of the box' idea is also a practical way to enhance Israel's security. Temporarily removing civilians could weaken Hamas's grip over Gaza, reduce its recruitment pool, and enable a buffer zone that minimises risks of attacks. Removing civilians from the war-zone would also allow the Israel Defence Forces to conduct targeted operations against terrorists, with fewer civilian casualties. At a time when Hamas is reportedly regaining power, this could be an effective way to weaken it further.
The Israeli government has not formally responded. However, the strongest support for this has come from far-right figures, including Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who see this as an opportunity to rebuild Jewish settlements in Gaza – a fringe view not reflective of official Israeli policy, nor supported by the majority of Israelis.
Hamas, unsurprisingly, has rejected the plan. The terror organisation has suffered heavy losses, its leadership decimated, infrastructure and weapons arsenal largely destroyed, and political control weakened. Despite attempting to project an image of triumph, the sight of a mass Palestinian exodus would damage its narrative and further erode its standing.
Trump can also expect pushback from regional leaders. Jordan's King Abdullah expressed concern over the prospect of absorbing a large number of Palestinian refugees for an unknown time period. Jordan is home to more than two million Palestinians who fled during the 1948 and 1967 wars. Some still live in refugee camps, while others have integrated into Jordanian society.
Violent clashes between the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the Jordanian government in the 1970s, mean that King Abdullah may worry about reigniting old tensions, especially if terrorists infiltrate into Jordan among the civilian refugees. Egypt shares some of these concerns, given the close ties between the Muslim Brotherhood – a banned terrorist organisation that has considerable presence in Egypt – and Hamas. Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab host countries would also be wary of appearing to collaborate with Israel and the US in permanently relocating Palestinians out of Gaza.
Convincing Arab leaders to accept Palestinians for an unspecified period would be a monumental challenge. Trump would need to provide assurances that the relocation is temporary, that Israel will not use it as an opportunity to establish settlements in Gaza, and that additional security and financial assistance will be offered. Egypt and Jordan's heavy reliance on US aid gives Trump potential leverage. In 2024, Egypt received $1.3 billion in military aid, while Jordan received approximately $1.45 billion in 2023. If determined, Trump could use this dependency to push his plan forward.
Trump's bold idea sounds far-fetched. However, providing Palestinian civilians with safe accommodation and access to health care, education and other essential services, while simultaneously weakening Hamas and establishing an alternative, moderate leadership in Gaza, could not only help rebuild Gaza, but lay the foundation for better relations between the sides.
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