Why Covid cases are rising, why you needn't worry

Indian Express

28-05-2025

The Health Ministry this week said fresh cases of Covid-19 have been seen mainly in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, and that a new subvariant, NB.1.8.1, had been detected in at least one sample.
This sample, which was collected and sequenced in April, was submitted to INSACOG, India's Covid-19 genome sequencing consortium, from Tamil Nadu.
Several countries are reporting Covid-19 surges; World Health Organisation (WHO) data show noticeable increases in South-East Asia. On May 13, Singapore reported a rise from 11,100 cases during April 20-26 to 14,200 during April 27-May 3.
What is the current situation in India?
There were 1,010 active infections as of Tuesday evening, according to data on the Health Ministry's Covid-19 dashboard. The largest number of cases (43%) were in Kerala, followed by Maharashtra (21%). Delhi, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu had 10%, 8%, and 7% of cases.
Since May 19, deaths have been reported in Maharashtra (3), Kerala (2), and Karnataka (1). However, the Ministry has said 'more details are awaited' before these deaths can be attributed to Covid-19.
The outbreak seems to be geographically limited. The numbers of active cases were in double digits in only nine states on Tuesday, and only Kerala, Maharashtra, and Delhi had more than 100 cases each.
However, a clearer picture is expected to emerge over the next fortnight, as testing of symptomatic individuals increases.
Official data on hospitalisation are not yet available. But large hospital chains have not reported any significant increase in Covid-19-related admissions. The few patients who have been admitted mostly have pre-existing comorbidities — which suggests that new cases are not, as of now, leading to severe disease.
What is triggering the increase in cases?
While reporting their surge on May 13, the Singaporean health authorities pointed out that periodic waves of Covid-19 — like other endemic respiratory diseases — were expected throughout the year.
SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, has not disappeared, but it no longer behaves like an unpredictable emergency — rather, it has become part of a recurring cycle of illnesses, similar to the flu. Several factors could be contributing to the rise in cases:
Which new variants have emerged, and which one is currently widespread?
Three categories of variants are closely monitored.
JN.1 accounted for 16.3% of sequenced cases in the epidemiological week that ended on February 2. Singaporean authorities have reported that two JN.1 descendant lineages — LF.7 and NB.1.8 — make up more than two-thirds of locally sequenced cases. However, they have clarified that 'there is no indication that the variants circulating locally are more transmissible or cause more severe disease compared to previously circulating variants.'
In India, the virus in most samples sequenced over the past couple of months has been identified as either BA.2 or JN.1. Health officials have said there is no indication that they are more transmissible or cause more severe disease compared to earlier variants.
What precautions should you take?
If you're in a crowded place, or have symptoms like a runny nose, sore throat, headache, or a fever, it's important to wear a mask. According to the 2023 AIIMS/ ICMR-COVID-19 National Task Force guidelines, people with mild symptoms should isolate at home.
At home, you should maintain physical distancing, wear a mask, and practice good hand hygiene. Mild cases can usually be managed with rest, fluids, and medicines for symptom relief.
Stay hydrated, monitor your temperature and oxygen levels (SpO2), and be in touch with your doctor. Do not use antibiotics unless there's a clear sign of a bacterial infection.
Seek immediate medical attention if you have trouble breathing, your oxygen level drops to 93% or lower, or if you have a high fever or severe cough lasting for longer than five days.
Those older than 60, or with heart disease, diabetes, a weakened immune system, tuberculosis, chronic lung, kidney, or liver disease, or obesity, or those who are unvaccinated should be extra cautious.