Matthew Schaefer vs. top 2024 NHL Draft D, Porter Martone vs. Juraj Slavkovský and more: Mailbag

New York Times

09-05-2025

On Monday, I released my May 2025 NHL Draft ranking. On Thursday, I released my first mock draft and got more than 100 submissions for the mailbag. Today, I've answered a bunch of the big ones in depth, ranking the top 2025 forwards by potential point production, the 2025 forwards versus the 2024 and 2023 forwards, Matthew Schaefer versus last year's D, taking upside swings outside the top 15, the class' small players, Porter Martone versus Juraj Slafkovský and more.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn't answer it below, I've been chipping away at the rest of the submissions here.
In terms of point production, how would you rank the top 5-10 forwards in the draft? — Bill J.
This is an interesting one. It also serves as a bit of a fantasy hockey question as well. I think I'd go something like this:
1. Michael Misa
2. James Hagens
3. Porter Martone
—
4. Jake O'Brien
5. Caleb Desnoyers
6. Roger McQueen
7. Anton Frondell
8. Victor Eklund
9. Justin Carbonneau
10. Brady Martin
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Relative to my actual draft ranking for those 10 players, O'Brien moves up a little. Worth noting that I thought about slotting Carbonneau one or two spots higher as well. His skill level is legit and I think he's a sneaky one.
After that group, you get into players like Carter Bear, Cole Reschny, Benjamin Kindel, etc. I think Ivan Ryabkin and Ryker Lee are wild cards from a points perspective because both are skill-first guys who will be on an NHL power play if they hit. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak as well, though he's more of a shooter than the more puck-skilled type that Ryabkin and Lee represent.
How would you rank this year's top centers (Misa, Hagens, Desnoyers, Frondell, etc.) to the top centers from the last couple of drafts? — Michael J.
Relative to where I was at on them pre-draft, it probably looks something like this:
1. Connor Bedard
2. Macklin Celebrini
—
3. Adam Fantilli
4. Michael Misa
5. Leo Carlsson
6. James Hagens
7. Will Smith
—
8. Berkly Catton
9. Caleb Desnoyers
10. Anton Frondell
HM. Jake O'Brien
I thought about Misa ahead of Fantilli and Hagens ahead of or behind both of Carlsson and Smith, so that middle tier almost has a sub-tier of 3/4 and 5/6/7. For the purposes of this exercise, I've decided to exclude Cayden Lindstrom and Roger McQueen because I don't know where exactly they'd slot had they been healthy, but they'd both fit into that third tier for sure.
A fourth tier would include Brady Martin (likely at the front of it), Dalibor Dvorsky, Konsta Helenius, Michael Hage, etc.
How does Matthew Schaefer compare to last year's defenders? — Justin K.
The consensus would have him No. 1 by a margin/in a tier of his own. I'd have him No. 1 too, but with the smaller sample of play, I think I'd probably have him closer to my top group of last year.
As a refresher, these were my rankings of the big six D last year:
3. Artyom Levshunov
4. Zeev Buium
5. Zayne Parekh
6. Sam Dickinson
9. Anton Silayev
13. Carter Yakemchuk
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I'd probably have both Buium and Parekh ahead of Levshunov today, but Silayev and Yakemchuk would remain a cut below the other four. Buium and Parekh both have higher offensive/point production ceilings than Schaefer, but Schaefer's skating is a huge separator even against the top D from last year, and he projects as the most all-around D from that group.
Who are the biggest upside swings after the top 15? — Brian K.
Ryabkin's a definite boom or bust selection. Ihs-Wozniak could be a scorer and power-play flank guy if he hits. Lee's got top-six skill, and I'd predict he'll be the most purely talented on-puck player available when he's selected on Day 2. Cole Reschny and Benjamin Kindel could both become second-liners, though Reschny is trending close to becoming a top-15 pick. Haoxi 'Simon' Wang represents an upside swing as a highly mobile but also raw 6-foot-5.5 defenseman. The little trio of L.J. Mooney, Cameron Schmidt and Adam Benak all have the potential to be offensive player types if they hit, but come with understood risk. William Moore has work to do, but he could have some offensive upside if he can put it all together. Alexander Zharovsky could have long-term upside and become one of those Russians who produce in the KHL in their early 20s and then come over a little later.
Each of those players comes with some inherent downside as well, but that's why they're not top-15 picks.
It looks like there are a lot of intriguing smallish players available in this year's class, but I get a sense that NHL teams are increasingly on the lookout for players with size again. Do you see it that way? And will it mean that the smaller, talented players will be passed over for bigger options on draft day? — Aavcocup A.
L.J. Mooney looked to be the best USA player in Frisco. Is height his only issue? — Dan L.
The pendulum will always swing, and counter-correct, and swing, and counter-correct, but you're on the right track in terms of scouting's current emphasis on size. I know plenty of scouts and coaches around hockey who think about size quite progressively, and who think the shape of what makes an NHL player isn't nearly as rigid as it used to, but there is still a priority on size in the NHL and that is impacting scouting and player evaluation projections of players. And while there are always mistakes made and an over-emphasis on size has led to smaller players such as Lane and Cole Hutson, Logan Stankoven, etc., lingering longer than they should, the current emphasis on size is still for good reason. It's still particularly emphasized for defensemen and goalies (though I think the goalie pendulum is beginning to swing back the other way a little as guys such as Dustin Wolf thrive and others such as Sebastian Cossa are still sorting through it) but it's present in conversations about forwards too, and it's going to result in the likes of Mooney, Schmidt and Benak going lower than they would if it were only about skating, or talent, for example. Even for 5-foot-10/11 types such as Victor Eklund, Reschny and Kindel, it'll be a factor on draft day. You need to really check the competitive box with emphasis for teams to take sub-6-foot forwards high. Eklund has that and he still may go outside the top 10 as teams prioritize centers and D with more size.
This year will be a particularly illustrative one to look back on with Mooney, Schmidt and Benak being as small as they are. I'd consider all three of those players in the second or third round, but I think one or multiple will still be there in the fourth or fifth round.
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To answer the second question about Mooney, it's not just a height thing but also a size thing. He's not just small. He's slight and his metabolism seems to be working against him in terms of adding weight. The good news for Mooney is that those two things don't seem to impact the fearlessness, competitiveness, drive and even physicality and middle-lane determination that he plays with. Whether he'll have to play more on the perimeter up levels is a conversation, though, and his strength does impact his shot. Teams wanted to see him put the puck in the net more himself this year and while Schmidt doesn't have the smarts that Mooney and Benak have, he does have the scoring/shooting element (often to a fault).
How does Porter Martone compare to Juraj Slafkovský in his draft year? How would you compare their respective floor and ceiling? — Julien V.
I think they're comparable prospects at the same age and might actually be a little higher on Martone than I was on Slafkovský. If you've followed my work, you'll know that I had Slafkovský in the same tier as Shane Wright, Logan Cooley and Simon Nemec in 2022, but I had him behind them. I was lower on Slafkovský than most and a little too low in hindsight, and I'm probably in line or maybe even a smidge higher on Martone versus the consensus. I started cooler on Martone than scouts did, but they've cooled on him more than I have from that starting point. Slafkovský was even thicker and heavier, but Martone's a big, strong kid. Both aren't fast. I think Martone has more natural puck skill and hands. It's a debate. Most scouts would have favored Slafkovský at the same age. I'd probably lean Martone. I think Martone could/will have more offense in his prime.
Less of a question specifically about the 2025 class and more on your work in general. How do you define pace? Is it just a mix of compete and foot speed, or something else entirely? — Liam D.
I always like to finish my mailbags with a more theoretical question, and this was a good one. Certainly, the two qualities you mention are inputs to pace, but I would still say it's something else entirely. Pace is about the way you play more than any one quality or tool. Certainly it helps to be fast and competitive, but there are a lot of players who have foot speed and don't play with pace because they don't keep their feet moving, or they don't make decisions or reads quickly enough, and there are competitive players who struggle with pace because they don't process as fast as they work. Pace is about playing quickly, not necessarily being quick. When you've got the puck, do you make decisions quickly and move it quickly, or does the game slow down? When you don't have the puck, do you keep your feet moving to get open and make sure you're ready when the puck comes back to you to make the next play, whether that's a quick dash with it to your next spot or a quick one-touch pass in a give-and-go?
If you played hockey, chances are a coach told you some version of 'the puck travels faster than a player can skate.' And that doesn't mean you have to get rid of the puck whenever it lands on your stick, but you either need to be able to get going or be able to get the puck going. Think about when you repeatedly snap your fingers, or when a coach does that to signal to guys to hurry up. Pace is about hurrying the play up.
(Photo of Matthew Schaefer: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images)