Op Spider's Web: Why Ukraine's attack prohibitively jacks up the costs for Russia

Indian Express

2 days ago

Over the last four years, Ukraine has generally been tight- lipped about its battlefront manoeuvres, but Operation Spider's Web is starkly different. Kyiv publicly disclosed a lot of information about the audacious operation that dealt the biggest blow of the war against Moscow's long range bomber fleet. Why?
The answer to that question, according to Roman Sheremeta, Founding Rector, Distinguished Visiting Professor at the American University Kyiv, reveals how modern warfare now goes far beyond the battlefield.
Firstly, the Russians would have figured it out anyway. The story would have come out anyway, given that more than 40 aircraft were destroyed across four Russian air bases. 'Satellite imagery, media leaks, and local reports would've told the story eventually. So why not own the narrative?' Sheremeta said in a post on X.
Second: disclosure is the strategy here, given that this was not just a strike. It was a psychological ambush.
Ukraine deliberately chose to reveal in explicit detail how it planned and then pulled off the operation — smuggling drones in decoy trucks, driving them 4,000 km through Russia, and remotely launching them under the enemy's nose. With this, now, every Russian cargo truck becomes a potential weapon. Every driver is a potential saboteur. And every highway — a threat vector.
'Result? Paranoia, friction, and skyrocketing internal costs'.
The cost of the attack for Moscow goes far beyond the strategic bombers lost in the attack.
Russia will now be forced to inspect every suspicious truck, monitor internal roads with military resources, distrust their own private truck drivers and slow down all logistics, civilian and military alike, Sheremeta said.
This strains Russian creaking internal infrastructure, and could potentially choke supply chains and erode trust deep within Russian society. All this could potentially worsen the spiralling inflation in Russia, as supply chains get derailed. There are already reports of traffic jams in Irkutsk amid check posts being set up by the Russian law enforcement agencies and the military. With Ukraine's audacious drone attack, the war has suddenly reached deep inside the Russian mainland. The psychological scarring that it brings would take a long time to heal.
'Ukraine didn't just hit planes — it weaponized uncertainty. It turned Russia's vast territory into a battlefield of doubt. This is asymmetric warfare at its finest. You don't need to match your enemy plane-for-plane. You just need to make them afraid of their own shadow. That's how you win without even firing the next shot,' Sheremeta noted.
The last place that the Russians would have looked was the lorries plying on its roads, including those deep in Siberia. This attack changes that. The drones hit some 35 per cent of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers, causing an estimated $7 billion worth of damage in total. Ukrainian officials said 117 drones were used, which would cost a few hundred millions. The asymmetry is stark!
Despite the overall strength in numbers, which could eventually decide the final outcome of this war, Ukraine has shown that it can pack a punch and has the wherewithal to execute a complex operation that seems to have been taken out straight from a spy movie.
Also, Russia might not be in a position to replace these strategic bombers, most of which are not in production. That badly impacts Moscow's resolve to deliver cruise missiles into Ukraine the way it has been doing for so long. It also makes a mockery of Russia's intelligence capabilities. Russia would have been prepared for night time attacks by missiles launched from Ukraine on their air bases near the front lines. What they were clearly not prepared for was a daytime attack in bases far away from the frontlines. That is why the drone attacks were so successful. Almost like the Israeli pager bombings targeting Hezbollah inside Lebanon.
What we have with Operation Spider's Web is not only a victory for Ukraine in terms of debilitating Russia's ability to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine, but actually a strategic victory that helps the West enormously.
The tactical switch by Ukraine was something that Russia had not planned for. Kyiv had, so far, used long range drones launched from Ukraine, which then fly into Russian airspace and strike a variety of targets. But this attack was different and some of the airfields that were struck were 4000 km from Ukraine, and the operation did not involve these long range drones. Instead, these were small drones which were launched from containers on trucks. It seems that Ukraine took advantage of commercial trucking networks plying into Russia from parts of Europe or inside of Russia to deliver the weapons deep inside the territory of its enemy in a way that the Russian security services and military were clearly not ready for.
Ukrainian officials indicated that Kyiv did not provide advance notice of the strikes to the Donald Trump administration. This operation appears to have used only Ukrainian equipment, and therefore Ukraine has clearly felt that it doesn't need to inform the US about this attack.
Op Spider's Web was a message for the Kremlin that Ukraine can cause severe damage, deep inside Russia, just like the Russian strikes in Ukraine over the last four years. And it's a message for the other partners that have been supporting Ukraine, particularly for the US, which under Trump, has been wavering somewhat in its support. It is a message to its partners that Ukraine is still in this fight.
And unlike Trump's assertion during the Oval Room slugfest, pugnacious Ukraine still holds some cards.
Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More