Nordic Parents Have It Great—But Birth Rates Are Still Falling

Newsweek

3 days ago

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Much of the world is facing a birth rate crisis, and Norway is no exception despite implementing many of the policies governments, activists, and experts have touted. Newsweek has broken down why.
Many trying to tackle this global issue have called for public health policies and financial plans to help make it easier for couples to have children in society.
The financial crisis and its impact on housing, inflation and pay is generally cited a major contributor to people's decisions to delay having children, to have fewer children or not to have them at all.
Parental leave and childcare come up just as often, with multiple experts telling Newsweek that improved policies in these areas would be a game-changer.
Norway is considered a global leader in parental leave and childcare policies, with the United Nations International Children's Fund (UNICEF) ranking it among the top countries for family-friendly policies.
"The Nordic model is characterized by strong institutional support for families with children," Rannveig Kaldager Hart, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health's Centre for Fertility and Health, told Newsweek.
Norway offers parents 12 months of shared paid leave for birth and an additional year each afterward.
It also made kindergarten (similar to a U.S. day care) a statutory right for all children 1 year of age or older in 2008, which the government has subsidized to make it possible for "women and men to combine work and family life," as Norway's former Minister of Children, Equality, and Social Inclusion Solveig Horne said at a parental leave event in 2016.
And yet, Norway's fertility rate has dropped dramatically from 1.98 children per woman in 2009 to 1.44 children per woman in 2024, according to official figures. The rate for 2023 (1.40) was the lowest-ever recorded fertility rate in the country.
Why Is Norway's Birth Rate Declining?
Oslo created a Birth Rate Committee to investigate the causes, consequences and possible solutions of Norway's birth rate problem last year.
It found that "an important cause is that fewer people are having their first child before age 30" and fewer people have more than two children, Hart, who is also the Committee's chair, said.
Professor Katrine Vellesen Løken, from the Norwegian School of Economics, told Newsweek that "one leading hypothesis points to lower rates of couple formation for those in their 20s, which in turn contribute to reduced fertility."
"While Norway has eased some financial barriers, that's only part of the picture; other psychological, cultural, and structural factors matter too," said Theodore Cosco, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing.
"Parenting is shaped by many factors, and Norway is beginning to reckon with those beyond just financial support, especially the deeper challenges of parenting itself," he told Newsweek.
Indeed, Hart also said that "young adults are more likely to live alone" and "young couples split up more frequently than before."
He went on to speak about "intensive parenting," which refers to the modern parenting style in which parents invest time, money and energy into creating successful adults.
The expectations of this parenting style "may cause some to postpone or have fewer children than they otherwise would," Hart said.
Øystein Kravdal, who was a demography professor at the University of Oslo for almost three decades, said the same.
"One may also wonder whether young adults to an increasing extent are being exposed to overwhelming expectations about how 'intensely' one should care for a child to be a responsible parent," he told Newsweek.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/Canva
What Is The Solution?
So does this mean that Norway's progressive parental leave and childcare policies should not be part of other countries' solutions?
Cosco does not think Norway's approach should be dismissed globally. "Norway shouldn't be seen as a failure," he said. "Fertility is a complex issue that requires a multi-pronged approach."
Kravdal argued that Norway would be worse off without its family-friendly policies.
"In the last 15 years, Norway's generous support system has not been weakened. If that had happened, the total fertility rate would likely have been even lower than the current 1.44," he said."
Løken agreed, saying: "This uncertainty does not rule out the potential role of family policies in addressing the issue."
"Measures that provide families with more financial support or time could, in theory, influence the opportunity costs associated with couple formation and having children," she continued.
But she added: "Most studies examining the impact of family policies on fertility find only modest and short-term effects—typically influencing the timing of childbirth rather than the total number of children people have."
Løken went on to call for a "more ambitious policy direction" involving "efforts to reduce screen time, enhance community and social engagement opportunities, and shift cultural norms around relationships and fertility, particularly among people in their 20s."
In its interim report, the Birth Rate Committee looked at offering additional child allowance for parents younger than 30 years old and better education about the ability to have children and pre-pregnancy help.