US Commander gives strident warning about China's threat

Time of India

22-04-2025

Almost everywhere one looks,
China
is ramping up pressure against neighbours and would-be adversaries. This is happening diplomatically, economically and militarily, even as Chairman Xi Jinping rapidly builds up the combat capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (
PLA
) and prepares China for a drawn-out "struggle".
Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command (
INDOPACOM
), addressed these concerns in a
House Armed Services Committee
testimony on 10 April. He warned, "China continues to pursue unprecedented military modernisation and increasingly aggressive behaviour that threatens the US homeland, our allies and our partners."
Military threats are just one element in China's toolbox for those who disagree with its imperious perspective. As Paparo explained, "China employs a multifaceted approach combining military pressure, cognitive and cyber operations, and economic coercion."
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Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College, commented on Paparo's credentials: "Nobody outside of China," he related, "has a better view into developments of concern regarding China's armed forces than Admiral Sam Paparo..." He has led INDOPACOM since 3 May 2024, and before that, he was in charge of the
Pacific Fleet
from 5 May 2021.
Erickson said Paparo has had "four years of daily observation of Chinese military developments down to the smallest externally observable detail. His prepared statement and related responses in his Congressional testimony last week show just how much progress he sees, and how serious it is."
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Paparo noted: "China is developing and integrating cutting-edge technologies - artificial intelligence, hypersonic and advanced missiles, and space-based capabilities - at an alarming pace. China's anti-access/area denial capabilities are designed to prevent US forces from operating within the First and Second Island Chains. China is outpacing the US in testing not only these critical technologies, but also technologies from across their military industrial base."
The American admiral warned of other capabilities such as chemical and biological weapons, a growing nuclear arsenal and expanding maritime projection as all being worthy of "a challenge to regional stability".
Furthermore, Xi is accelerating the pressure against Taiwan. As Paparo pointed out, "Beijing's aggressive manoeuvres around Taiwan are not just exercises - they are dress rehearsals for forced unification. The PLA escalated military pressure against Taiwan by 300% in 2024, through activities such as air defence identification zone entries and centerline crossings."
The Philippines is another victim of Chinese bullying and aggression. Xi's change of heart towards the Philippines stemmed from the current President Bongbong Marcos' decision to stand up to Chinese encroachment, unlike his pusillanimous predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.
Chinese actions have become increasingly pernicious in the Yellow Sea as well. A standoff between the Chinese and Korean coast guards occurred on February 26 after Beijing earlier erected a large steel rig in waters separating China and South Korea. This was in the
Provisional Maritime Zone
(PMZ) located near Socotra Rock, southwest of Jeju Island. Established in 2000, the PMZ is a jointly managed stretch of water where South Korean and Chinese exclusive economic zones overlap.
China claimed the 71.5 m-tall structure was an aquafarm, but Seoul complained because it was illegally set up without consultation. This is not the first time China has done this in the Yellow Sea either, but previously it removed similar structures after Seoul complained.
These actions are remarkably similar to China's salami-slicing tactics in the South China Sea, where it makes territorial claims and enforces them with squatters like the Chinese
Maritime Militia
. Incremental deployment of rigs of growing size in the Yellow Sea fits China's pattern of escalation and militarisation. This is easy for China to do, because there is minimal separation between its military, law enforcement and civilian sectors.
The key strategic change over the past 15 years has been the rise of multipolar authoritarianism, accompanied by an increasing activity among its practitioners to reshape the world in their image. This is clearly evident in the confluence of interactive relationships, if not strictly alliances, among China, North Korea, and Russia. These three countries fill one another's weaknesses to their mutual benefit, something the INDOPACOM commander noted in his testimony.
As one example, Paparo said, "Russia's growing military cooperation with China, including joint exercises in the Pacific, adds another layer of complexity to the Indo-Pacific security environment. Their combined operations demonstrate increasing sophistication that potentially complicates USINDOPACOM response options in a crisis." Last year, China and Russia conducted an inaugural coast guard patrol, two naval patrols, three naval exercises and two bomber patrols -the latter including bomber patrols near Alaska and Guam featuring Chinese nuclear-capable H-6N bombers.
Nor is China neutral in the Ukraine War. The
Pentagon
assesses that China has provided 70% of machine tools and 90% of legacy computer chips to enable Russia to rebuild its industrial war machine. In return, Russia is assisting China with technological advances such as submarine quieting.
The senior US military officer in the Indo-Pacific region stressed how "a US network of allies and partners represents a tremendous asymmetric advantage in the Indo-Pacific. No competitor or adversary can match the combined strength and capabilities of this network." Paparo added that "USINDOPACOM must enable key allies and partners to acquire the necessary capabilities to defend themselves, while improving combined interoperability through bilateral and multilateral exercises and operations".
However, President Donald Trump's erratic behaviour may pose the biggest obstacle at present, as allies, friends, and onlookers watch with horror as Trump throws one friend after the other under the bus. Trump has embittered many with his insistence on extorting tariffs, and Southeast Asia was initially particularly hard-hit.
As Evan Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
, tweeted: "The US is pretty much done strategically in Southeast Asia. The region is filled with pragmatists, who can and do navigate all kinds of crazy stuff from outside powers. But that depends greatly on those players being either principled or strategic - and Washington is now neither." India also garnered a mention in the testimony, with INDOPACOM highlighting enhanced operational coordination, information sharing, collaboration and defence industrial and technology cooperation. "A strong and capable India - in durable partnership with the United States - can help provide security and deter conflict in the Indo-Pacific," Paparo stated.
However, the underbelly for any US military response in the Indo-Pacific is the tyranny of distance, plus limited numbers of bases to which it will have access. Logistics, sustainment, stockpiles, agile combat deployments and base access are thorny issues for the USA. The nation requires close allies in the Indo-Pacific region, but wild US political behaviour is making the situation worse.
"Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile," said Chinese Foreign Spokesperson Lin Jian on 11 April. He was referring to Trump's irrational imposition of tariffs, but ironically, China can be justifiably accused of treating smaller countries exactly the same way. Beijing is actively drawing others into its embrace, even as Xi visited the three Southeast Asian nations of Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam from April 14-18.
Earlier, China and Cambodia announced on 5 April that the China-Cambodia Ream Port Joint Support & Training Centre had begun operations. China has been furtively investing in and building infrastructure at Cambodia's Ream Naval Base. The PLA stated the base is there to "ensure that the two militaries carry out regional counterterrorism, disaster prevention and mitigation, humanitarian rescue, joint training and other operations."
PLA troops are now permanently stationed at this facility in Cambodia. The two parties added, "The construction and use of the centre is the result of mutual respect and equal consultation between China and Cambodia." They noted that the base is not directed at any third party, but "is conducive to further strengthening the pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries and better fulfilling international obligations and providing international public security products."
At the end of his testimony, Paparo concluded: "As the most consequential opponent, China poses real and serious challenges to our military superiority. However, these challenges also present opportunities for reform and establishing an enduring advantage.
While USINDOPACOM faces significant challenges, I remain confident in our deterrence posture and ability to defend US interests and maintain regional stability, but the trajectory must change. China is out-producing the United States in air, maritime and missile capability."
Indeed, China is constructing combat warships at a ratio of 6:1.8 compared to the USA, which represents more than three times the quantity. Such ratios are reflected in just about every force element, according to Paparo. He described PLA modernisation as a "step-level change". Astonishingly, he assessed that the PLA has increased its military capability tenfold to fifteenfold in the past 20 years alone.
China also has 2,100 fighters in its order of battle, as well as more than 200 H-6 bombers. Fighters are being produced at a rate of 1.2:1 compared to the USA. Their long-range air-to-air missiles "present a tremendous threat," said the chief. He also assessed that China has "high marks in their ability" to deny US air superiority in the First Island Chain. Neither side would gain complete mastery of the air, with INDOPACOM contesting air superiority and, when required, providing windows of air superiority to achieve specific aims.
An unwanted war over Taiwan could result in a 25% GDP contraction in Asia, a 10-12% GDP reduction in the USA, and 7-10% higher unemployment in the States. Paparo also warned of this about any loss of Taiwan to the PLA, "The knock-on effect of the brittleness of that network of alliances and partnerships means that some of the states could confer and submit to the PRC's mode of exploitation en route to their long-range goal of setting the rules of the world and reaping the benefits of that.""If you do not hold the high ground along the First Island Chain, you are vastly limited in your ability to operate," he underscored.
This led Senator Tom Cotton to say, "So the key then is to prevent the war from happening in the first place. We do not want to be in a situation where we have to win a war over Taiwan. We want to stop it from happening, and the way to do that is through a strong military and resolute, confident leadership."
When Cotton asked the INDOPACOM head what he needed most, he responded, "counter-C5ISR [command, control, communications, computers, cyber, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] capabilities in cyber, space, counter-space to ensure that the United States can see, understand, decide, act, assess, learn faster than the PRC can, to enhance our ability to blind, to deceive and to destroy the adversary's ability to see and sense." He said a second requirement is long-range fires and effects so the joint force is "effective in attacking centers of gravity, the platform that they ride on, the sustainment that sustains them."
Paparo acknowledged that China frequently attempts to sabotage undersea internet cables, particularly around Taiwan, through gray-zone tactics. Senator Jacky Rosen remarked that China's "reckless, coercive and aggressive activities pose a threat to democracies around the globe, and its sabotage of those undersea cables has emerged as a particularly alarming tactic".
Paparo proposed two countermeasures. The first is deterrence, "the ability to penetrate from an intelligence standpoint and to be there in the locations where they would be otherwise cutting those cables". Second is resilience, such as redundant networks to ensure the information environment continues unabated, as well as the proliferation of multiple constellations in low Earth orbit. Paparo admitted that anticipating and countering Chinese moves consumes his duties.
He likened it to "a constant stare, the constant analysis of intelligence sources, of open-source sources and then the physical movement on the ground, to be able to see and understand, to anticipate and to be able to pace their actions that look to coerce Taiwan and to demonstrate the prospect of settling the matter by force".
His second focus of attention is Chinese "encroachment on treaty allies in the Philippines, as well as encroachment on partners in the South China Sea, with their excessive and illogical claims and their Nine-Dash Line claim."