Golfweek asked ChatGPT for predictions and more at the 2025 U.S. Open

USA Today

9 hours ago

Golfweek asked ChatGPT for predictions and more at the 2025 U.S. Open ChatGPT analyzed Oakmont and the field at the U.S. Open, then predicted contenders. But it shocked us with a big-name it thinks could miss the cut.
Golf fans don't need artificial intelligence to know the U.S. Open is the toughest golf tournament on the schedule every year, and that Oakmont Country Club prides itself on being one of the hardest golf courses in the world. The list of men who have won there is illustrious: Tommy Armour (1927), Sam Parks Jr. (1935), Ben Hogan (1953), Jack Nicklaus (1962), Johnny Miller (1973), Larry Nelson (1983), Ernie Els (1994), Angel Cabrera (2007) and Dustin Johnson (2016).
While golf media members and prognosticators have been bantering about who might win this year's U.S. Open since Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 PGA Championship last month, Golfweek decided to see what one of the biggest brains on Earth had to say on the subject. ChatGPT is a large language model developed by OpenAI that can generate human-like text, making it seem as if you're texting with a real person. A very real person. It's designed to understand and respond to user input, answer questions and even have a back-and-forth conversation.
Here's what ChatGPT thinks about Oakmont Country Club, who might be a contender on Sunday afternoon, and which highly-ranked player is most likely to miss the cut.
ChatGPT on Oakmont Country Club
Golfweek: Let's start with the course. Among the venues that the USGA has used for recent U.S. Opens, how hard is Oakmont?
ChatGPT: Oakmont Country Club is, without question, the most difficult course in the regular U.S. Open rota—and possibly the toughest test in all of championship golf. That's not just opinion; it's supported by scoring data and player feedback across decades. Let's talk numbers.
In the last three U.S. Opens played at Oakmont—2007, 2016, and 1994—the winning scores were 4 under (Dustin Johnson, 2016), 5 over (Angel Cabrera, 2007), and 5 under (Ernie Els in a playoff, 1994).
What's notable is that even with modern equipment, only four players broke par in 2016, and that was with a relatively calm week. In 2007, nobody broke par—Cabrera's +5 was good enough to win, and only eight players finished within 10 shots of the lead. Compare that to:
2023 at LACC (North Course): Wyndham Clark won at -10
Wyndham Clark won at -10 2022 at The Country Club (Brookline): Matt Fitzpatrick won at -6
Matt Fitzpatrick won at -6 2021 at Torrey Pines: Jon Rahm won at -6
Jon Rahm won at -6 2019 at Pebble Beach: Gary Woodland won at -13
Oakmont plays harder, period.
Golfweek: Why is Oakmont so tough?
ChatGPT: It's a combination of classic design and sheer brutality:
Greens: Oakmont's greens are legendary—lightning fast, sloped, and crowned. They routinely roll 14+ on the Stimpmeter during U.S. Opens, making them the fastest in major championship golf. They're also massive, but pins are tucked and approaches must land on the right tier or risk a three-putt—or worse. Bunkers: Over 210 of them, many of them deep and positioned exactly where your ball wants to go. The famous 'Church Pews' between 3 and 4 are iconic, but every bunker feels like a penalty area. Narrow fairways and thick rough: The USGA always narrows the fairways at Oakmont, and the rough is dense, upright, and penal. Driving it in the short grass is a premium, especially with how firm the course usually plays. No water hazards, no gimmicks: Oakmont beats you up with angles, firmness, and speed. There are no ponds, no forced carries over lakes—just pure shotmaking, and nowhere to hide if you're off.
In short: Among recent venues, Oakmont is the bar-none toughest. It demands everything—tee ball placement, spin control, elite lag putting and mental endurance. Even top players often leave with their confidence dented.
Golfweek: What do you anticipate will be the hardest hole at the 2025 U.S. Open?
ChatGPT: If history, design and setup trends are any guide, the most difficult hole at the 2025 U.S. Open will almost certainly be the first hole—and yes, that's as intimidating as it sounds.
Oakmont's first hole is a par 4 that plays to about 480 yards. Right out of the gate, players face a brutally demanding tee shot that sets the tone for the day.
The fairway tilts left to right, and anything slightly offline can kick into the rough or into the right-side bunkers. In the 2016 U.S. Open, fewer than 50 percent of players found the fairway on No. 1 all week. The green is angled front-to-back slopes severely from left to right. If you miss on the wrong side, it's a guaranteed bogey or worse.
Most courses ease players into a round with a mid-length par 4 or scoring opportunity. At Oakmont, the first tee shot is more of a stress test—no warm-up swings, no bailouts, and no faking it. It's a major reason players say Oakmont gets in your head before your round even starts.
Who might win the 2025 U.S. Open?
Golfweek: Predict three players who will be in contention for the lead at the U.S. Open at the start of the fourth round?
ChatGPT: Great question—and one that requires blending data, history, course fit and recent form. Predicting who will actually be leading after 54 holes is always a gamble, but three players stand out as especially likely to be in the hunt at Oakmont on Saturday night of the 2025 U.S. Open. Here are three names I'd put real stock in:
Scottie Scheffler
Why he'll be there: No one in men's professional golf has been more consistent than Scheffler over the last 18 months. He's leading the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green by a wide margin again in 2025, and Oakmont is a ballstriker's crucible. He drives it long and straight, controls spin beautifully, and has shown major resilience even when his putter isn't firing.
Oakmont fit: Scheffler's natural shot shape—a tight fade with the driver—matches up well with Oakmont's demanding tee shots. His elite iron play will give him chances on holes where most players are scrambling for bogey. Plus, his recent putting switch (to the TaylorMade Spider Tour X L-Neck) has stabilized what was once a glaring weakness.
Xander Schauffele
Why he'll be there: Xander has been the most consistent U.S. Open performer of the past decade, with seven straight top-15 finishes since 2017. He finally broke through with a major win at the 2024 PGA Championship, and there's no reason to think he won't carry that confidence into Oakmont.
Oakmont fit: He's cool under pressure and rarely beats himself. That kind of temperament plays at Oakmont, where the course demands total discipline. He's also top 10 in proximity from 175–225 yards in 2025—exactly the kind of approach range you face all week there.
Tommy Fleetwood
Why he'll be there: Fleetwood's name might surprise some, but he's put together a quietly excellent season and ranks among the best in strokes gained around the green and scrambling—a huge asset at Oakmont. His U.S. Open record is strong (T-2 in 2018, T-4 in 2017), and he thrives in tough, windy, firm conditions.
Oakmont fit: Fleetwood is a grinder. He's not flashy off the tee, but he puts the ball in play and thrives when par is a good score. His creativity and feel on and around the greens could give him a real edge over players who are used to softer setups.
Golfweek: Who is a player no one will be talking about who you think could finish in the top 10 at Oakmont?
ChatGPT: Sahith Theegala
He's not under-the-radar to golf fans anymore, but in a major field packed with big names and major winners, Theegala still qualifies as a sleeper—especially at a venue like Oakmont, where the course itself is the star, and emotional control is as critical as ball control.
1. He's a creative shotmaker with a great short game. Oakmont requires creativity and feel—two of Theegala's strengths. He plays with a natural flow and doesn't overly rely on mechanics, which helps him on uneven lies, thick rough, and the types of awkward recovery shots that Oakmont dishes out routinely.
2. Top-tier putting and touch. He's ranked among the top 30 on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2025 and has shown the ability to drain mid-range putts under pressure. Oakmont's greens will be a nightmare for players who rely too much on analytics or struggle with speed control. Theegala, on the other hand, has the kind of natural putting stroke that holds up well on fast, sloped greens.
3. Major confidence curve. He's trending in the right direction. Theegala notched a T-6 at the 2024 British Open Championship, a T-12 at Augusta in 2025, and a strong run at the Players earlier this year. The experience is adding up, and he's shown he can handle big stages without losing his rhythm or confidence.
4. Comfortable in chaos. Some players unravel when they miss fairways or when the course gets firm and fiery. Theegala doesn't. He's a scrambler by nature, and Oakmont rewards guys who stay patient, aren't rattled by bogeys, and can grind out 72 tough holes.
Who might miss the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open?
Golfweek: Give me a big-name players who you think is most likely to miss the cut.
ChatGPT: If you're looking for a bold prediction—and one that could stir up some clubhouse conversation—I'd say the big-name player most likely to miss the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont is Bryson DeChambeau.
That might seem controversial on the surface, especially considering how well he played in the 2024 majors and how much he's embraced U.S. Open setups in the past. But Oakmont is not Winged Foot or Pinehurst, and the setup in 2025 may be his undoing. Here's why Bryson is at risk:
1. Oakmont neutralizes power without precision. Bryson's strategy in 2020—bomb it as far as possible and gouge it onto the green—worked at Winged Foot because the fairways were narrow but the rough was uniform and not overly penal in some areas. At Oakmont, that same approach is far riskier. Oakmont's fairways are extremely narrow, the rough is thicker and clumpier, and the greens are firmer and faster. Miss a fairway here, and you're often looking at a layup, not a wedge from the rough. It's a course that rewards accuracy and punishes any loss of control—off the tee, into the greens, and especially around them.
2. Short game and putting concerns. Bryson has made strides with his putter, but Oakmont's greens are an entirely different animal. They're famously the fastest in major championship golf, and Bryson's tendency to struggle with speed control and lag putting under pressure could become a major liability. If you're not extremely precise with your spin and trajectory into these greens, three-putts (or worse) pile up fast.
3. Course architecture doesn't favor his style. There are no real 'gettable' par 5s at Oakmont (No. 12 being the exception, and even that's relative), and no holes where a high-risk/high-reward strategy offers a clear payoff. In fact, trying to overpower Oakmont can backfire quickly—ask players like Phil Mickelson or John Daly, both of whom struggled mightily here in past Opens when they tried to play aggressively.
In 2016, when Bryson was still an amateur, he did make the cut at Oakmont, finishing T-15—but he was playing a far more controlled, conservative game back then. In recent U.S. Opens, he's had mixed results: wins at Winged Foot and Pinehurst, missed cut at Torrey Pines.
Bottom line from ChatGPT ahead of the 2025 U.S. Open
If Bryson comes in swinging driver with reckless abandon, Oakmont could chew him up. And if his iron play and touch around the greens aren't sharp, he could be heading home Friday night. He's got the talent, but this venue asks the wrong questions of his current game.