NBA Mock Draft 4.0: The latest first-round projections, plus a trade that could shake up the lottery

Yahoo

19 hours ago

As hard as it is to believe, we're only two weeks out from the 2025 NBA Draft. Trade rumors are starting to get louder and louder, and there are a number of teams that could move picks in the lottery. One of them? The Sixers with the third pick. So in this week's mock, we simulated how the draft board might fall if they end up moving down.
Let's get into my first-round mock draft. And for a full second round, plus scouting reports of every player, check out my 2025 NBA Draft Guide.
Flagg will visit the Mavericks in less than one week, which will all but make it official Flagg is headed to Dallas. Right? You'd think. But I guess you can't rule out anything with the Mavericks. Nonetheless, all indications are the Mavericks will indeed keep the first pick, select Flagg and take a two-timelines approach. Flagg can help in both the short term and long term as a do-it-all forward who hustles, makes his teammates better as a passer and has dialed in a knockdown jumper. He's both the best offensive and defensive prospect in this draft class, making him the safest No. 1 pick in ages. As long as his jumper falls, he could play as a small forward next to Anthony Davis and another big. It's his growth as a shot creator that will decide if he reaches his All-Star floor or soars to his Hall of Fame ceiling.
If the Spurs keep the second pick and don't trade out of this position, it seems like Harper will be the pick. Harper is a big-bodied lefty combo guard with NBA blood in his veins, as the son of Ron Harper, who was a 20/5/5 guy before winning five titles as a role player. Like his father, Harper has a high floor with the skill, poise and playmaking instincts to dictate the game at his pace. He isn't an ideal fit, though, next to De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle because of questions about his jumper. Harper made only 36.8% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and just 28.7% of his dribble jumpers as a Rutgers freshman. Fox and Castle are more interior-focused guards, too, and so is Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt. How many shaky shooters can the Spurs really put around Victor Wembanyama? No matter what the Spurs are signaling ahead of the draft, I'm not convinced taking Harper is Plan A.
(Taylar Sievert/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
TRADE: Pelicans send the seventh pick, a 2026 Pacers 1st (top-4 protected) and Herb Jones to the Sixers for the third pick and Kelly Oubre (player option)
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League sources continue to cite the Pelicans as a team aggressively looking to move up in the draft, with most front-office executives believing Bailey is the target of new general manager Joe Dumars. That's why we're mocking a trade here for this week's mock, with Herb Jones and a low-value first in 2026 via the Pacers to move up four spots. Is there a chance Ace would make it all the way to the seventh pick? Sure. But unlikely, and this would assure the Pelicans get their man. Bailey is a ridiculous shot-making machine, capable of splashing contested jumpers from every spot on the floor and with the swagger of a throwback bucket-getter. But his shooting inconsistencies, plus his raw edges as a shot creator and defender, need sanding down to turn him into a full-on star.
There's a real chance Knueppel ends up being selected in the top five with teams enamored with his sharpshooter's stroke, brainy pick-and-roll playmaking and crafty scoring feel. He's the type of player who can come in right away and fit on any team, including perfectly between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. He's got a slick midrange bag and strength scoring inside, but to become a player who takes over games he'll need to overcome his average athleticism. This would matter a bit less playing in Charlotte, since he could be one of multiple ball-handlers on the team. For my interview with Knueppel, you can check it out on YouTube, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. You can also read a written version here on Yahoo Sports.
Edgecombe is an explosive, high-motor wing who flies out of nowhere for poster dunks and chase-down blocks. In Utah, he'd add an ingredient missing with the existing guards and wings there. He pairs his elite athleticism with a knockdown spot-up jumper and fearless slashing, though he needs to improve his shot creation to become more of a primary creator.
Johnson is a clutch shot-maker who can catch fire from all over the floor, drilling step-backs and off-screen jumpers with ease. But he needs to continue developing his point guard skills while also honing his shot selection and dramatically improving his defense. This makes him an imperfect fit for the Wizards, since Bub Carrington and Jordan Poole already occupy the backcourt. But Johnson has the highest upside of the bunch, and Washington is in no position to worry about fit. For my interview with Johnson, you can check it out on YouTube, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.
TRADE: Sixers send the third pick and Kelly Oubre (player option) to the Pelicans for the seventh pick, a 2026 Pacers 1st (top-4 protected) and Herb Jones
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Sixers fans are already at war over Bailey and whether general manager Daryl Morey should take the skilled but raw freshman forward with the third pick. Trading down would solve a lot of issues: pick up an additional asset or two (an elite defender in Herb Jones plus one future first in this case) while just moving down for a player the Sixers might want to take with the third pick anyway. Philly would have a lot of options that make sense here whether it's a sharpshooter like Kon Knueppel, a versatile forward like Carter Bryant or Maluach, a towering rim protector with switchable mobility. Maluach is capable of erasing shots at the rim and shadowing quick guards on the perimeter. These skills would make him an intriguing fit alongside Joel Embiid early in his career in double-big lineups. Plus he could serve as a backup too. Beyond dunking lobs, he's a work in progress on offense with a lack of seasoning as a screener, shooter and creator. But he displays a shooting touch that hints at a much higher upside, not too different than Embiid when he entered the NBA. Such a raw skill-set should come as no surprise since the South Sudan native didn't start playing basketball until he was 13.
The Nets have no point guards under contract, and they've long needed a fixture at the position. Fears is a dynamic guard with a twitchy attacking style and a knack for coming through as a clutch shooter. He was one of college basketball's youngest freshmen, and it showed with his shaky decision-making as a shooter and passer. But he has a feel for shot creation and a handle that lets him get anywhere on the floor, so he may only need time to emerge as a star.
Bryant is a rangy, athletic forward who projects as a highly versatile defender. And though he's raw as a ball-handler, he's a skilled spot-up shooter and a hyper-aware cutter. At a minimum, he has the baseline skills to be a great role player with the upside to someday be much more. The Raptors would obviously like for him to hit his high-end outcome, but even if he doesn't he projects as a strong fit next to Scottie Barnes.
Even though the Rockets selected Reed Sheppard last year, there's no reason for them to shy away from adding another playmaking guard to the mix. Houston's system looks like it'll have sources of offense from all five players on the floor, so Jakučionis could fit as a slick shot-creator with a creative passing gene and a fearless scoring ability. As a freshman, he carved up defenses with crafty finishes, step-back jumpers and jaw-dropping passes. He'd follow up those highlights with turnover brain-farts that derail the hype train, but that's why Houston would be beneficial since it'd alleviate his workload and put him in a simpler role.
The Trail Blazers could be targeting a shooter with this pick after ranking 24th in 3-point percentage and in the middle of the pack in attempts last season. McNeeley is a sharpshooting wing with superb instincts moving without the ball and the touch to splash from deep ranges. Though he doesn't project as a primary shot creator, his feel as a connective passer gives him the skill to fit into any type of offense.
Richardson has been connected to teams drafting in the late lottery, despite measuring 6-feet at the NBA Draft Combine. He is a skilled combo guard with a lethal midrange game and a poised pick-and-roll feel, looking like he downloaded the experience of his NBA veteran father, Jason Richardson. Jase didn't inherit his father's height or dunk-contest athleticism, though, so his smaller stature caps his upside. But does that matter? Look at the way the Pacers and Thunder play, with tons of players who can fly around the floor and make quick decisions. That's Richardson's exact style, so he could seamlessly fit on a team like the Bulls.
Queen is a burly big with guard-like handles who dazzles with spin moves and crafty finishes like his game-winning leaning jumper to send Maryland to the Sweet 16. If he translates his velvet touch to the perimeter, he has offensive star upside, though his interior scoring, playmaking chops and magnetic rebounding give him tantalizing potential. Queen would offer a different type of center than Trae Young is used to, but that could lead to exciting returns in the years to come. Check out my full interview with Queen on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The intel on Coward is all over the place. Some sources say he's a late lottery pick. Others say he's a late first. I'd imagine a really smart team will draft him, so he goes to the Spurs in this mock. Coward has gone from a Division III player to a potential first-round pick in just a few years behind his rapid development into a prospect with a valued 3-and-D skill-set. But he brings even higher upside, thanks to his passing vision and blossoming handle. For more on Coward, watch or listen to my one-on-one interview with him.
If the Thunder win the NBA Finals, they will go down as one of the greatest single-season teams in the history of sports. So what does a team with so much depth really need? A home-run swing in the draft. Essengue is a toolsy forward with a fluid handle, dynamic finishing package and highly versatile defense. But his long-term upside hinges on the jumper clicking. And if it doesn't, his defense must reach a level that prevents coaches from keeping him off the floor.
Clifford is a tough-as-nails wing who does it all. He defends multiple positions, crashes the boards and scores from everywhere. As a super senior with only Mountain West pedigree, he lacks experience against high-level competition despite his age. But his skill-set would in theory allow him to fit right away on Orlando's roster, providing shooting to a team that ranked 25th in 3-point attempts and last in percentage.
The Timberwolves got blasted by the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, and it's time for the franchise to take a long, hard look in the mirror at what's missing. Anthony Edwards is only 23 and should conceivably get better. But the frontcourt is aging and getting pricey. That's why Newell is the choice here. Newell has springs in his legs, regularly slamming lobs and swatting shots. Even though his lack of discipline reflects his youth, his energetic style suggests he'll someday become a highly versatile defender.
Murray-Boyles operates like a defensive savant the way he locks down every position, uses his ninja-quick hands to swipe at the ball and inhales rebounds. He's a special defensive presence, and offensively he's a bulldozer finisher with a playmaking feel. Improving his jumper would move him out of tweener territory and into All-Star status. So unless he or Alex Sarr does that, there might be too much overlap in the frontcourt. The upside of this defensive duo would be pretty enormous, though, making it a worthy gamble.
Demin has one of the widest ranges in this draft class with people around the league seeing him as an option from anywhere in the mid-lottery to the late-teens. The Nets would certainly be happy to take a swing on his rare ability at his size to make dazzling passes. Even though he struggled to shoot and create his own shot against lengthy defenders, he did perform well at the draft combine and is said to be excelling in pre-draft workouts with his tweaked shooting mechanics.
Pat Riley said he has no plans to retire and that '80 is the new 60,' so it's hard to imagine the Heat going with a raw project in the draft. But would a talent like Traoré be too much to pass up? The Frenchman oozes upside with his size, blazing speed and shiftiness off the bounce. Inefficient scoring and erratic decision-making are the big concerns with him, but he's played his best basketball in recent months by shooting nearly 40% from 3 and 80% from the line. Riley may want to win now, but maybe he should think about the long-term future of the franchise, too.
It might be about time for the Jazz to trade Walker Kessler, and Sorber would be a worthy replacement. Sorber has a brick-house frame and the throwback skill-set to match with strong screens, soft-touch finishes and gritty drop-coverage instincts. But to be more than a role player, he needs to tap into the flashes he shows as a shooter while also improving his perimeter defense.
Powell has a chiseled frame he uses to barrel into defenders at the rim and to contain opponents when he's on defense. He's a switch-everything defender who plays with a high motor, and if his spot-up jumper translates, he checks all the boxes to be a 3-and-D role player at a minimum. These are the precise qualities of the types of wings and forwards the Hawks love to put around Trae Young.
With Myles Turner entering free agency this offseason, the Pacers could be in need of a center. Even if he does return, Raynaud could serve as a backup center or give Indiana a versatile option for a two-big look. Raynaud has leveled up every year at Stanford, turning into a player who pops 3s, slashes to the rim with a smooth handle and makes eye-popping passes. As a talented passer who also offers solid defense, there's little reason to think the Frenchman won't carve out an NBA role.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers): Will Riley, F, Illinois
Riley has dynamic driving ability and playmaking instincts that scream upside as a jumbo-sized, shot-creating wing. But his jumper is streaky, and his defense is unreliable since he is so lean physically and lacks fundamentals. The Thunder can be patient, though. With a loaded team that could win the NBA Finals, Riley can spend some time in the G League and develop until he's ready to shine.
Here's another shooter for the Magic. Fleming is a hustler who drains spot-up jumpers and brings energy on defense, swatting shots and snagging boards. He has some real warts as a ball-handler with a lack of experience against high-level competition, but this would matter less for an Orlando team that would place him in a defined role.
26. Brooklyn Nets (via New York): Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija
Beringer began playing basketball only three years ago, which makes him a raw project. But it also makes his natural talents all the more impressive. He is a center, but has the quickness of a guard, giving him immense defensive versatility to build on for years to come. His role in the early years will be to screen and catch lobs, and he could catch a lot of them playing with playmakers like Fears and Demin.
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Gonzalez is expected by most executives to keep his name in the draft, but with the withdrawal date on June 15 and his draft status anything but a certainty, there's always a chance he returns overseas for one more year. Gonzalez is a high-motor wing with great defensive tools and a slashing style on offense. And if his jumper and handle develop, he could be a versatile two-way starter. But he barely played off the bench for Real Madrid, so there would be some appeal in proving he's worth a lottery pick with one more year before making the leap. However, if a team like the Nets comes calling, there'd be plenty of early opportunity for him in the NBA.
Thiero is a slasher with a jacked frame and an explosive first step, but he has severe limitations on offense as a shooter. If he's able to figure out the shot, then his length and versatility would make him a classic 3-and-D role player. The Celtics have had good success at improving shooters, so he'd be a fair bet at this spot, considering his other strengths are tailor-made for their system.
The Suns could absolutely use a big man, since Nick Richards is merely a backup. Kalkbrenner is a throwback 7-footer who owns the paint, swatting shots with his giant wingspan and dunking everything in sight. It's a bit strange he isn't a better rebounder. But as a super senior, he's also developed some sneaky passing and shooting skills that hint at higher upside.
30. LA Clippers (via Oklahoma City): Walter Clayton Jr., G, Florida
James Harden can't be the only source of playmaking for the Clippers. They need someone who can allow him to operate off-ball, if he's willing. Clayton is a fearless shooter with the versatility to take any shot at any moment, as we saw when he led Florida to the national championship. But his limitations as a defender hold him back from being an elite prospect.
For the full second-round mock draft, plus scouting reports of every player, check out my 2025 NBA Draft Guide.