Wizz Air Maps Major Ukraine Comeback, But Peace Remains Elusive

Skift

a day ago

Wizz Air wants to seize a once-in-a-generation vacuum left by defunct national carriers and sidelined Russian firms. Peace in Ukraine can feel distant, but that's not stopping airlines from priming their post-war plans.
Wizz Air has presented a 'comprehensive' plan to re-enter the Ukrainian market – though only once a ceasefire is in place, which still has no clear timeline.
On Thursday, the carrier detailed a rapid relaunch strategy to resume operations in Ukraine after the conflict ends. It says 30 routes would launch within six weeks of regulatory clearance.
These initial flights would be served by aircraft and crew based elsewhere in the airline's network. However, by the end of year one, the airline wants to see locally based aircraft, with up to 60 routes on sale from the country.
This level of capacity would provide around 5 million seats per year. By year three of re-entering the market, Wizz Air is aiming for 150 routes, providing around 15 million seats annually.
In an investor presentation published Thursday, Wizz Air described itself as 'the go-to airline to rebuild Ukrainian connectivity post ceasefire' and highlighted the company's confidence in filling the market gap left by legacy carriers.
Rebuilding Air Capacity in Ukraine
Before the Russian invasion in February 2022, Wizz Air had around 10% market share of Ukraine's total seat capacity, which was around 27 million in 2019. Flag carrier Ukrainian International Airlines held a 33% share. Russian operators – which once enjoyed 20% of the market – are not expected to have a major presence in Ukraine in the immediate post-war years.
As a result, Wizz executives view the country as a major growth opportunity in the wake of severe war-related disruption. They predict pent-up demand and a chance to gain a strong foothold in the country as the war ends.
József Váradi, Wizz Air CEO described the market opportunity as 'significantly larger today than what it was prior to the war.'
Speaking during Thursday's earnings call, Váradi said: 'A third of the market was basically controlled by Ukrainian airlines – they are all bankrupt. They have no capacity. A significant portion of the market was controlled by Russian airlines – I doubt they will be the first ones to come back.'
Wizz Air believes few other carriers have the scope to allocate significant capacity to Ukraine, particularly at speed in the early post-war period.
The airline's plan hinges on two key traffic drivers: VFR (visiting friends and relatives) demand from around 8 million Ukrainians displaced by the conflict, and worker inflows for the extensive rebuilding projects expected over the next decade.
But Wizz is unlikely to have the market to itself.
Ryanair has also outlined ambitions for a fast-track return to Ukraine. However, where Wizz emphasizes regulatory coordination, Ryanair has expressed frustration. Earlier this year, Ryanair Group CEO, Michael O'Leary, reportedly criticized Ukrainian airport operators for 'failing to engage' with the airline and its plans.
The race for post-war market share is already heating up, even without a clear timeline for peace.
Wizz Bosses Visit Kyiv
Senior members of Wizz Air management visited Kyiv in March to assess on-the-ground readiness and reported positive indicators.
According to the airline, the country's regulators are supportive, the infrastructure remains largely intact, and local service providers are ready and willing to help restart operations. 'The airport infrastructure is going to get activated very quickly. They have been able to preserve the airport infrastructure and workforce well,' said Váradi.
Despite this, the Wizz chief warned that it won't be entirely straightforward. He flagged air traffic control infrastructure in Ukraine as 'probably the biggest single challenge' ahead of a return to commercial operations to and from the country, but was optimistic that Europe would provide support in this area.
At the start of the war in February 2022, four of Wizz Air's Airbus aircraft were stranded in Ukrainian territory; three in Kyiv, and another in the western city of Lviv. The engines from the planes in Kyiv were successfully repatriated, as well as the sole jet in Lviv. Wizz Air reports that the three engineless airframes in the Ukrainian capital remain in good condition and are being maintained for possible reintegration into the fleet.
Historic Parallels for Ukraine
Looking beyond the immediate recovery period, Váradi is bullish on the prospects for Ukraine and its economy: 'We think Ukraine is effectively the new Poland, and Poland is the new Germany,' he said in reference to Poland's rapid economic development in the last two decades.
Váradi also drew comparisons with the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. He noted its impact on migration flows and how airlines at the time responded. 'We are very upbeat and positive about the Ukraine opportunity and would be eager to go whenever it becomes possible,' he added.
Wizz paints a picture of rapid recovery, but it remains to be seen how quickly Ukraine's infrastructure and regulatory systems can scale post-conflict.
The low-cost airline's Ukraine plan comes amid broader geopolitical headwinds. The carrier has only been able to serve Israel intermittently over the last year, 'based on security considerations.' On Thursday, it reaffirmed its longer term commitment to the country, with a full service resuming 'once it is deemed safe to do so.'
Speaking to Skift last month, Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, described the operational challenges relating to restricted airspace, such as Ukraine. He said the global situation was 'the worst it's ever been,' but was optimistic that many airlines would return to Russian airspace quickly when it reopens to Western carriers.
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