The shadowy rise of Donald Trump's favorite president: Nayib Bukele
WASHINGTON − Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele owes his support in Washington to a controversial agreement to hold hundreds of Venezuelans deported from the U.S. in a notorious prison – and to a reputation for having broken the back of the MS-13 gang.
"We are not going to stop until we capture the last remaining terrorist,' he vowed in 2023, more than a year into his war on El Salvador's gangs. Recorded murders fell under Bukele's watch from 2,398 in 2019 to 114 in 2024. Salvadorans, Donald Trump said last month, 'have a tremendous president."
But that's just part of the story.
Bukele rose to near-total control of El Salvador on a tide of support from the very gang he's credited with defeating, according to a U.S. federal indictment, the Treasury department, regional experts, and Salvadoran media.
In March, Trump's Justice Department dropped terrorism charges against Cesar Humberto Lopez-Larios, an alleged top MS-13 leader, and returned him to El Salvador before he could potentially reveal Bukele's deals in an American courtroom.
Lopez-Larios, one of MS-13's self-styled '12 Apostles of the Devil,' isn't the only person with potentially damaging information on Bukele.
USA TODAY has learned that a former president of El Salvador's national assembly – who is also familiar with gangland negotiations – was seized by U.S. immigration officers in March and awaits deportation to his homeland, where he was convicted in absentia for illicit gang dealings.
Leaders of MS-13 negotiated with Bukele ahead of his 2019 presidential landslide and gave him a sometimes violent get-out-the-vote effort in 2021 legislative elections, the U.S. Justice Department has alleged.
The 2021 victory gave Bukele's Nuevas Ideas party a legislative supermajority that allowed the term-limited president to cull the country's supreme court, oust the attorney general, and blow through El Salvador's constitution to run for and win a second term.
In return, MS-13 leaders received prison privileges, financial benefits − and a ban on extraditions to the United States, U.S. prosecutors, Salvadoran media, and people familiar with the negotiations told USA TODAY.
An examination of Bukele's past shows how a gifted young politician, who once described himself as 'a radical leftist,' rose to power with the help of a Communist guerilla commander, Venezuelan oil money – and a winning deal with MS-13's bloodstained leadership.
'There are serious allegations that Bukele purchased peace by making deals with the gangs that Trump says he's at war with,' said former Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-N.J., who once headed the State Department's democracy and human rights office.
"We are grateful for President Bukele's partnership and for CECOT – one of the most secure facilities in the world – there is no better place for these sick criminals,' White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said, referring to the prison holding thousands of MS-13 detainees and hundreds of Venezuelans deported from the U.S.
Jackson didn't address questions about Bukele's collusion with MS-13. The Salvadoran embassy did not return a message seeking comment.
The most important U.S. source on Bukele's MS-13 ties is a task force created during Trump's first administration.
Joint Task Force Vulcan was launched in 2019. It was staffed by bloodhounds from the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations, the DEA and others with one mission: 'To destroy MS-13, a vile and evil gang of people,' Trump said at the time.
Vulcan tore into the task. While winning terrorism and drug indictments against MS-13's Ranfla, or board of directors, investigators discovered a group that was closer to an armed insurgency than a traditional street gang.
Drugs? Of course. Human trafficking? Naturally. But also: Trained strike battalions, rocket launchers, and power over life and death stretching from New York's Long Island to Central America, prosecutors said.
The U.S. lawmen also found Faustian bargains had been made with MS-13 by El Salvador's old-guard political parties, who were desperate to lower a stratospheric murder rate – and by Nayib Bukele, the self-styled reformer who had promised to clean things up.
Bukele, the son of a businessman, dropped out of college and worked in advertising before he gained the attention of the FMLN, the political party of El Salvador's former communist insurgents.
In 2011 he won the mayoralty of Nuevo Cuscatlán, just outside the capital. Despite a population of just 8,000, Bukele used the town as a megaphone. Exploiting social media in ways new to El Salvador, he was seen as a progressive newcomer and caught the eye of the man who would serve as his political godfather.
Jose Luis Merino was a Communist guerilla commander during El Salvador's bitter 12-year civil war and became a deputy minister for foreign investment after FMLN won the presidency in 2009.
Merino was the party's main link to the governments of Hugo Chavez and, later, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which used oil money to support leftist movements across the region.
Some of that cash went to the young mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán – Bukele has acknowledged that businesses he controlled received $1.9 million originating from a Venezuelan-Salvadoran oil company that experts say was controlled by Merino. He described the funds as legitimate commercial loans.
Audits later determined the oil company had doled out $1 billion in unrecovered loans to entities related to Merino, according to a 2020 report.
Merino is among several Bukele associates – including Bukele's chief of cabinet, his press secretary, his gang reintegration coordinator, and his prisons director – placed under U.S. sanctions for corruption and 'actions that undermine democratic processes or institutions' during Joe Biden's administration.
In 2016, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, then a Republican senator from Florida, called Merino a key enabler of a leftist Colombian narco-insurgency, blasting Bukele's patron as 'a top-notch, world-class money launderer, arms smuggler for the FARC.' Rubio accused Merino of 'millions of dollars of laundering for the FARC as well as corrupt Venezuelan officials.'
Bukele was elected mayor of San Salvador in 2015, a traditional springboard to the presidency, and broke with the FMLN two years later. Merino, whose nom de guerre was Comandante Ramiro, abandoned his old comrades and backed Bukele, who was elected president in 2019.
El Salvador's leaders had been making deals with the gangs for years, trading leniency in prison and on the streets for a reduction in homicides that reached a high of 6,656 in 2015.
Bukele took the deals to new heights.
A 2022 U.S. federal indictment based on Vulcan's work alleged MS-13 leaders held talks with all of the country's political parties 'including without limitation negotiations in connection with the February 2019 El Salvador presidential election' – in which Bukele took 85% of the vote.
After Bukele's victory, his administration met secretly with imprisoned MS-13 leaders. MS-13 members who were not incarcerated were brought into prison meetings with government ID cards 'identifying them as intelligence or law enforcement officials,' the indictment said.
In those talks, gang leaders 'agreed to provide political support to the Nuevas Ideas political party in upcoming elections,' the U.S. Treasury department said, while announcing sanctions on Bukele's top negotiators.
MS-13 demanded an end to extraditions, shortened sentences, and control of territory. In return, the gang agreed to 'reduce the number of public murders…creating the impression that the government was reducing the murder rate,' the indictment says. 'In fact, MS-13 leaders continued to authorize murders where the victims' bodies were buried or otherwise hidden.'
Human rights groups found that, even as El Salvador's official murder rate fell, reported disappearances went up – a trend that started before Bukele was elected president.
Bukele, who sold himself as a trailblazer, used the same playbook as his predecessors – only more effectively, people familiar with the operation said.
The Salvadoran president's gang associations go back to his time as mayor of the capital, San Salvador. El Faro newspaper reported on a December 2015 phone call that police intercepted between two MS-13 members in which one brags that he's prepping for a meeting with top aides to San Salvador's mayor – Bukele – at a shopping mall Pizza Hut.
'Monday at 10 at Multiplaza, we're all meeting up,' one says. 'The mayor already knows…he said 'Yeah.'' After the meeting, El Faro reported, police stopped the two Bukele aides and released them without arrest.
The cozy dealings appeared to end in March 2022, when three days of violence took 87 lives in the tiny Central American country. Bukele declared a temporary state of emergency that's been renewed every month since, and El Salvador's prison population swelled to 110,000; many of these detainees have been charged with 'illicit association.'
One person who, prosecutors allege, knows plenty about Bukele's deals with MS-13 is Cesar Humberto Lopez-Larios, an original member of the gang's '12 Apostles of the Devil.' Until recently, Lopez-Larios was based in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn awaiting trial on charges that included plotting terrorist attacks in the United States.
But on March 11, John Durham, then-interim U.S. attorney for New York's Eastern District, asked federal Judge Joan Azrack to drop the charges. Durham, who earlier led the Vulcan task force, cited 'sensitive and important foreign policy considerations.'
Six days later, Lopez-Larios was seen among dozens of Venezuelans being dragged off a deportation flight and processed in El Salvador's notorious CECOT prison. The White House hailed his deportation.
'It's very telling that the price Bukele demanded' for imprisoning U.S. deportees at CECOT 'was the return of these MS-13 leaders who were poised to testify in court,' Malinowski said. (Trump has touted a reported $6 million payment to Bukele's administration for holding the deportees as a bargain.)
Another top MS-13 leader, Elmer 'Crook de Hollywood' Canales-Rivera, remains in U.S. custody, though people familiar with the case fear he too could be returned before trial. The Bukele administration secretly freed Canales from a Salvadoran prison in November 2021, gave him a handgun, and dropped the alleged terrorist at the Guatemalan border, U.S. prosecutors said.
Task Force Vulcan tracked Canales to Mexico. He was captured and deported to the U.S. where he awaits trial.
A person familiar with the case said that, like Lopez-Larios, Canales was directly involved in negotiations with Bukele – describing him as Bukele's crown jewel.
Another Bukele opponent who may soon return to El Salvador is Norman Quijano, who served as president of the national assembly and is a former mayor of San Salvador.
Quijano fled El Salvador in 2021, hours before his parliamentary immunity expired, and sought political asylum in the United States. He was convicted in absentia of seeking support from MS-13 and the Barrio 18 gang in a failed 2014 run for president with the conservative ARENA party.
Now 78, Quijano is one of the highest-ranking Salvadoran officials to be convicted of gang ties in prosecutions that experts say have targeted the opposition while sparing Bukele's associates.
A person familiar with Quijano told USA TODAY the politician had paid for gang support in his 2014 run – but he was outbid by Bukele's then-party, the FMLN, which paid more than double what Quijano could raise. Quijano lost by a whisker with 49.89% of the vote.
Quijano was tried by Salvadoran Judge Godofredo Miranda. In February 2020, Miranda ruled in a separate case that he could 'infer' the FMLN's 2014 gang negotiations 'particularly impacted the election for mayor of San Salvador at the time,' which Bukele won before later breaking with the party.
'It is therefore mandatory to verify the existence of any close contacts between the MS gang and the current Cabinet,' the judge wrote of Bukele's presidency.
ICE agents arrested Quijano on March 6, days before the Trump administration dropped charges against MS-13 leader Lopez-Larios. Quijano is being held at a Texas detention facility. His attorney couldn't be reached; family members did not reply to calls and messages seeking comment.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The shadowy rise of Trump's favorite ally: El Salvador's Nayib Bukele
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Symrise AG (ETR:SY1)
Symrise's estimated fair value is €111 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Symrise's €105 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The €115 analyst price target for SY1 is 4.0% more than our estimate of fair value Does the June share price for Symrise AG (ETR:SY1) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €546.9m €577.2m €625.7m €700.5m €710.0m €718.9m €727.9m €737.1m €746.4m €755.8m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 1.25% Est @ 1.26% Est @ 1.26% Est @ 1.26% Est @ 1.26% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.5% €518 €518 €532 €565 €542 €520 €499 €479 €459 €441 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €5.1b We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.5%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €756m× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (5.5%– 1.3%) = €18b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €18b÷ ( 1 + 5.5%)10= €10b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €16b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €105, the company appears about fair value at a 5.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Symrise as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.987. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Symrise Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Symrise, there are three further elements you should further examine: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Symrise . Future Earnings: How does SY1's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: Tariff plot twists lose their bite
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Is this the dog that didn't bark? That would be the question from Sherlock Holmes fans given the utter lack of market reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%. That policy shift by tweet came late Friday after markets shut, so there was some anticipation of an impact today, maybe a drop in the Canadian dollar given the scale of their steel exports to the U.S. Yet the loonie is actually firmer against a broadly softer greenback, while European share futures are off a shade and Wall St futures only modestly lower. This could be the TACO meme in action as investors assume 'Trump always chickens out', though he's leaving it late with the new higher tariff supposed to go into effect on Wednesday. Then again, last minute cliffhangers work well on reality TV. European Union negotiators weren't pleased with this latest plot twist and threatened retaliation in return, while also letting it be known that the court case decision against the April 2 tariffs gave them added "leverage". Neither does Trump's latest rhetorical attack on China seem to be working, with Beijing sticking to its guns. If Trump is counting on a call from China's President Xi Jinping to sort things out, he might be waiting by the phone for a while. It was also somewhat ironic hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complaining that China was holding back vital products from the United States, given it was the U.S. that started a trade war with the specific aim of rebuffing Chinese imports. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaking in South Korea said tariffs meant there were downside risks to activity and unemployment, and upside risks to inflation. Yet he was still optimistic about the chance of "good news" interest rate cuts later this year, cementing his place as one of the more dovish Fed officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak later Monday, though limited to opening remarks to an international finance conference. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: * UK house prices, European PMIs, U.S. ISM factory survey * Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at the FederalReserve Board's International Finance Division 75th AnniversaryConference, while Chicago Fed Goolsbee and Dallas Fed Loganappear in Q&A's (By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)


Entrepreneur
37 minutes ago
- Entrepreneur
When Tariffs Bite
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. You're reading Entrepreneur United Kingdom, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media. Against the backdrop of an increasingly unstable market thanks to global geopolitical tensions, several financial records were broken when President Trump announced tariffs on goods being imported into the USA. We saw an unprecedented $6.4 trillion market-wide loss over two days, reported by the Wall Street Journal, and the Dow Jones lost more than 2,000 points in a single day for only the fourth time in history. For business leaders, this isn't just volatility; it's a clarion call to rethink resilience. They are naturally turning towards their accountants to help guide them through the instability and ensure continued liquidity. At HLB, we've long championed that turbulence isn't a barrier—it's a catalyst for reinvention. Driving innovation A key focus for businesses must be on driving innovation, which is no longer a luxury but a necessity. When faced with economic uncertainty and aggressive market shifts, companies which actively innovate are more likely to thrive. It might be easy to focus on the challenges, but there are also opportunities which present themselves in these stormy times – or which can be orchestrated through careful planning and business transformation. It may feel instinctual to keep things the same when the outside influences are so changeable, but in fact it's a prime time to rethink business structure, logistics and customer engagement strategies. With tariffs now in place across most of the world, companies importing into the USA should focus on building resilient and diverse supplier relationships in those countries where there are smaller tariffs in operation. Single-source systems should be replaced with a multi-source network as this reduces the risks of being tied solely to one region's tariffs. Sustainability should also be built into operations, as this not only works towards ESG goals (for example, by decreasing supply chain emissions) but also reduces costs and frees up capital, which can then be reinvested in other parts of the business. Agility is also crucial in times of turmoil, meaning it's vital to foster an open mindset to experimentation, implementing innovative initiatives and replacing outdated processes. By having flexible goals, and being open to how the company achieves them, adaptations can be made quickly when necessary and creative solutions can be explored when challenges like the introduction of tariffs arise. Business leaders can thrive by treating flexibility as a core competency—setting ambitious goals but staying open to how they're achieved. When tariffs hit, creative pivots matter more than ever. Digital transformation and AI The implementation of new technology, particularly AI, is something most business leaders are already considering, if not already implementing as part of a process of digital transformation. According to the HLB Survey of Business Leaders, 78% are prioritising investments in digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and adaptability, and 62% said digital transformation was a primary strategy to mitigate risks associated with external disruptions, such as trade policy fluctuations. Business' financial experts can use AI to analyse vast amounts of data across suppliers, logistics and import/export costs to quickly identify optimal sourcing strategies; and automation tools leveraged within logistics and HR teams can save time and operational costs, enabling the business to focus on longer-term strategic planning. Other transformative tools can help businesses better understand shifting customer demands (for example, as tariff costs trickle down to consumers), and enable companies to do more with less, ultimately providing a competitive advantage and transforming how they operate, pivot and grow – even in a volatile trade landscape. Integrating people and AI for growth A dual focus on innovation and people leads to significantly stronger outcomes. Successful companies don't simply adopt new technologies but embed them within their workforce structure by prioritising employee upskilling. This may involve providing training courses on data literacy and ESG frameworks, to ensure teams comprehensively understand how evolving technologies and regulations impact business operations. Staff must also feel empowered to collaborate across functions, as this tends to generate the most high-impact ideas; by ensuring teams have ownership over projects that combine technology tools like AI with ESG-specific goals, this helps foster an innovative and adaptable mindset throughout the company – especially if successful outcomes are considered as part of individual employees' performance milestones, to highlight the importance of these projects within the wider business' long-term strategy. With the help of their accountants, companies must make changes to their supply chains and business models, implement operational efficiencies in order to finance technological innovation, and work through the external challenges which present themselves as tariffs and global turmoil continue to disrupt the business world. Those who do so effectively can absolutely weather the storm, and build their resilience to protect themselves against any future challenges which arise.