Israel's attack on Iran marks moment of truth for Netanyahu

Economic Times

17 hours ago

Live Events
Why attack Iran now?
Will Netanyahu succeed?
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the mission of his lifetime.For years, the veteran leader has made the destruction of Iran's nuclear programme his top priority, raising the issue in speech after speech in apocalyptic terms. Now Netanyahu's moment of truth has arrived.After battling Iran's allies across the region following Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack, Netanyahu has turned his attention to what he describes as the "head of the octopus", with an unprecedented and open-ended military offensive against Iran and its nuclear programme.It is an aggressive gamble made possible by a confluence of factors, including the weakening of Iranian-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, and the reelection and support of US President Donald Trump.But success is not guaranteed, and the outcome of the escalating conflict could determine the fate of Netanyahu's government and shape his legacy.Here's a closer look:Netanyahu's history of warnings on IranNetanyahu began warning about the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran in the 1990s -- even before his first term as prime minister at the end of the decade. He returned to office in 2009 and has served as prime minister almost continuously since then, rarely missing an opportunity to portray the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to Israel's existence and menace to the world.In 2012, he famously displayed a crude cartoon illustrating what he said was Iran's march toward the bomb during a speech to the UN assembly.Three years later, he delivered a controversial speech to the US Congress arguing against then-President Barack Obama's emerging nuclear deal with Iran. The speech infuriated the White House and failed to block the deal. But it delighted Republicans and laid the groundwork for Trump to pull out of the agreement three years later.Netanyahu has frequently compared Iran's theocratic leadership to the Nazis, at times drawing the ire of Holocaust scholars and survivor groups. He turned to that familiar playbook this week as he announced the latest attacks on Iran."Eighty years ago, the Jewish people were the victims of a Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime," he said. "Today, the Jewish state refuses to be a victim of a nuclear Holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime."Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. But its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade levels and failure to cooperate with international inspectors have raised doubts about those claims.The head of the UN nuclear agency has warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several bombs. The agency censured Iran this week for failing to comply with nonproliferation obligations, one day before the Israeli strikes began.Netanyahu for years has threatened to strike Iran, repeatedly saying that all options were "on the table".But never before has he pulled the trigger due to opposition by domestic rivals and security chiefs, questions about the feasibility of such a risky operation and the opposition of a string of US presidents.But things have changed over the past two years, and Netanyahu now believes he has a chance to shape the region in his own image.Since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack triggered the ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has systematically degraded a network of Iranian allies across the region.The war in Gaza has decimated the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but at a devastating price for the territory's civilian population. Last year, Israel also inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, severely weakening the group and contributing to the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key Iranian ally. And during a brief round of fighting with Iran last year, Israel knocked out much of its enemies' air-defence systems.With Iran's "Axis of Resistance" in tatters and Iran unable to defend itself against Israel's air force, there was little to deter Israel from taking action this week.Trump provided the final piece of the puzzle. After surprising Israel earlier this year with his resumption of nuclear talks with Iran, Trump grew frustrated with the lack of progress in those talks.Notified about the Israeli plans, the US president appears to have put up little resistance, creating a rare window of opportunity for Israel.It is too early to say.The Israeli operation appears to have gotten off to a smooth start -- with Israel striking dozens of targets and killing senior Iranian military figures. But it remains unclear how much damage Israel has inflicted on Iran's nuclear programme.For now, the divisive and embattled Netanyahu appears to be riding a wave of support at home. Even the political opposition, which tried to topple Netanyahu in a parliamentary vote earlier in the week, has come out in support of the Iran operation.But things could change quickly. After an initial wave of support for Israel's war against Hamas, the country is now deeply divided. With the fighting now over 20 months old, many believe Netanyahu has unnecessarily dragged out the conflict in a self-serving campaign to remain in office.Likewise, public support for the Iranian operation could quickly turn if Iran's missile attacks on Israel cause heavy casualties or continue to disrupt life in Israel for an extended period. A debacle on the battlefield -- such as the capture of an Israeli fighter pilot by Iran -- could also reverse Netanyahu's fortunes.