War Game: Forward-looking India-Pakistan conflict scenario

India Today

25-04-2025

In the aftermath of the terror attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir – blamed on Pakistan army proxies – New Delhi escalates beyond past templates (like the 2016 Uri raid or 2019 Balakot strike). India initially retaliated non-kinetically by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan, signalling resolve.With these measures exhausting their impact, India's leadership decides on new, creative kinetic responses to punish the perpetrators while avoiding an all-out war. Indian strategic thought has long debated such options: limited yet decisive strikes that stay below Pakistan's nuclear threshold.advertisementThe Indian Army's Cold Start doctrine, for instance, envisions swift offensive operations "short of full-scale war", exploiting the "space for conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold". Pakistan, for its part, relies on a posture of "full spectrum deterrence" – including tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr (Hatf-9) – to dissuade any Indian incursions.
Both nations thus believe they can calibrate escalation without crossing into nuclear catastrophe. According to wargame analyses, there remain "numerous escalatory steps available to both countries that have never been taken", offering room to innovate militarily while still avoiding nuclear red lines.With this backdrop, the following 15-step Red (Pakistan) vs Blue (India) war game scenario unfolds over a short span, illustrating a forward-looking conflict sequence that feels both realistic and cinematic.WAR GAME MOVE SEQUENCE1) Blue 1 (India) STRIKE – The Indian Navy Western Fleet kick-starts kinetic retaliation. Under cover of darkness, an Indian Navy guided-missile destroyer in the Arabian Sea launches a volley of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles at a terrorist training compound on Pakistan's coast, near Karachi.advertisementThis marks the first time India employs a naval standoff strike on Pakistani soil, catching Pakistani defences off-guard. The precision missiles obliterate the target with minimal collateral damage, delivering a loud message that New Delhi is willing to widen the conflict to new domains.2) Red 1 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan reels in initial confusion and scrambles defences. The Pakistan Navy and Air Force are caught by surprise by the sea-launched strike. Pakistani air defence batteries around Karachi hurriedly go on high alert as Navy frigates and maritime patrol aircraft comb the coast, unsure if a submarine or ship might strike again.The Pakistani military refrains from an immediate counterattack while it assesses the damage, but it puts fighter squadrons on combat air patrol over major cities and activates air raid sirens in Karachi to reassure the public. Islamabad's leadership convenes an emergency meeting, shocked at India's unconventional opening gambit and weighing a response that won't invite further devastation.3) Blue 2 (India) ATTACK – India unleashes cyber warfare and space-based jamming. Even as Pakistan is still reacting, Indian agencies execute a massive cyber offensive against Pakistani military command networks and critical infrastructure. Indian malware knocks out portions of Pakistan's power grid and disrupts railway signalling, causing blackouts in Rawalpindi and paralysing communications for several hours.advertisementAt the same time, India's Defence Space Agency employs electronic warfare satellites to jam Pakistan's military satellite communications, blinding radar and communication links along the front. This coordinated cyber-space attack sows confusion in the Pakistani ranks without drawing blood, demonstrating India's technological edge in modern warfare domains. The move is deliberately kept non-lethal and deniable, calibrating escalation while signalling that India can cripple Pakistan's systems.4) Red 2 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan struggles to restore control and retaliates in cyberspace. Pakistani engineers and CERT teams rush to get grids and comms back online, gradually restoring power and military networks by rerouting systems to backup links. Islamabad publicly decries India's cyber strikes as "unprovoked aggression in cyberspace", and, in retaliation, Pakistani-aligned hackers deface several Indian government websites and attempt to spread disinformation on Indian social media.There are also brief cyber incursions into Indian banking systems, causing some ATM outages, but Pakistan's cyber counterstrike remains limited in impact. Diplomatically, Pakistan contacts China and the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) to highlight India's escalatory tactics, urging international condemnation of India's cyber warfare. These moves signal Pakistan's resolve, yet the government also carefully emphasises to global audiences that it is Pakistan that is acting with restraint so far, in hopes of gaining diplomatic support.advertisement5) Blue 3 (India) ATTACK – Indian Special Forces launch a covert raid on Pakistani soil. As electronic warfare rages, India opens another front with a deniable covert operation. A team of elite Indian Para(SF) commandos slips across the border near the Punjab sector on a moonless night and raids a safe-house outside Lahore believed to shelter the handlers of the Pahalgam terror attack. In a swift close-quarters battle, the SF team eliminates a high-value militant leader and sets the facility ablaze. They exfiltrate by helicopter before dawn, leaving Pakistani authorities baffled.India does not officially acknowledge this raid, but Indian media hint at a 'deep strike by special units,' and the message to Pakistan's Army is clear: even targets deep inside Pakistan are no longer safe. This clandestine move, though risky, stays under the nuclear threshold by design – covert cross-border operations of this kind have historically been used as sub-war options in South Asia.6) Red 3 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan hits back with intense fire along the Line of Control. Stung by the covert strike, Pakistan's military responds in a more traditional way: heavy artillery barrages erupt all across the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir. Pakistani Army units bombard Indian forward posts and border villages in Poonch and Uri, seeking to inflict pain and signal that two can play at the cross-border game. This sudden spike in LoC shelling is Pakistan's attempt to retaliate militarily without expanding the theatre beyond Kashmir . Dozens of civilians on both sides are forced to evacuate as shells rain down.advertisementSimultaneously, Pakistan's Army deploys elite SSG commandos near vulnerable stretches of the border, preparing for any Indian ground incursion. The message from Rawalpindi: despite India's high-tech forays, Pakistan can and will fight back fiercely on the conventional battlefield. However, by confining its riposte to the disputed Kashmir front, Pakistan still aims to keep the crisis within 'traditional' bounds and avoid provoking India into strikes deeper in Pakistan proper.7) Blue 4 (India) ATTACK – India debuts a swarm of armed drones for a multi-target strike. Pushing the envelope further, the Indian military deploys an AI-coordinated drone swarm from an airbase in Punjab, sending dozens of unmanned combat aerial vehicles across the border. In the pre-dawn hours, this flock of drones penetrates Pakistani airspace at low altitude, dividing into clusters to hit multiple militant camps and forward logistical nodes in Pakistani Punjab and PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir). Some drones kamikaze into their targets – terror launchpads and ammo dumps – while others loiter to provide real-time surveillance.advertisementThe swarm's onboard electronic warfare systems jam Pakistani communications and radars, compounding the chaos. By sunrise, several enemy sites are in flames, caught completely off-guard by swarming precision strikes. This marks the first use of drone swarms in South Asia for offensive missions, a dramatic 'non-traditional' air operation that showcases India's embrace of autonomous weapons. Indian think-tank experts had predicted such swarms could 'effectively disrupt enemy networks' and minimise risk to human soldiers – predictions now proven on the battlefield.8) Red 4 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan fights back in the air and at sea, while signalling its own capabilities. Pakistani Air Force fighters (F-16s and JF-17s) scramble to engage the Indian drones. In a frenzied air skirmish over the plains, they manage to shoot down a number of the UAVs, but not before the swarm accomplished most of its objectives. Enraged by the drone strike's success, Pakistan seeks a way to remind India that it too can escalate.The Pakistan Navy, fearing further Indian naval strikes, sorties its Agosta-class submarines into the Arabian Sea. In a bold move, a Pakistani Navy coastal battery fires a Harbah anti-ship cruise missile (Pakistan's indigenous variant) toward an Indian naval task force that delivered the BrahMos strike. The missile splash-lands in the Arabian Sea a few kilometres from an Indian frigate – a near miss that is either a poor aim or a deliberate warning shot. Indian warships go to full battle stations and use their Barak missiles to intercept a second projectile. Pakistan's message is sent: Indian naval assets are now in its crosshairs. Meanwhile, the Pakistani media broadcast footage of what they claim is debris of Indian drones, rallying domestic support and painting the picture that Pakistan has blunted India's high-tech offensive.9) Blue 5 (India) ATTACK – India activates a limited land offensive under Cold Start doctrine. Having flexed its naval, cyber, and air capabilities, India now pressures Pakistan on the ground. The Indian Army mobilises an Integrated Battle Group (IBG) from its offensive reserves and launches a rapid armoured thrust in the Rajasthan sector, toward a lightly held portion of the international border. In a lightning advance, Indian tanks and mechanised infantry cross into Pakistani territory to seize a shallow strip of land (a Pakistani border village and its environs) by surprise.This Cold Start-style operation is explicitly designed to be limited in scope – a divisional-sized thrust that 'avoids crossing Pakistan's nuclear red lines' by not driving too deep. The goal is to grab a tactical foothold that can be bargained over later, while punishing the Pakistan Army. Indian forces stop after 15–20 kilometres, digging in defensively. New Delhi's calculus (shaped by Cold Start thinking) is that a swift grab of Pakistani territory in retaliation for terror attacks will damage Pakistan's military prestige and provide leverage – all while staying below the threshold that might trigger Pakistan's nuclear use . Indian leaders, emboldened by past crises where Pakistan held back on nuclear options, believe there is still 'space for conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold' for such proactive operations.10) Red 5 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan signals nuclear red lines – unveiling Nasr tactical missiles. India's limited incursion sets off alarm bells in Islamabad. Pakistan's military high command frames the Indian IBG thrust as an existential threat to its sovereignty. To force India to halt its advance, Pakistan dramatically escalates its nuclear signalling. In a highly publicised move, the Pakistan Army Strategic Forces Command rolls out several Hatf-9/Nasr short-range ballistic missile launchers in full view (video footage shows them being deployed to forward locations in Punjab). These are tactical nuclear-capable missiles with only a 60-70 km range, explicitly developed to counter exactly this scenario of Indian armoured incursions.A top Pakistani general pointedly remarks on state TV that these weapons 'will defend Pakistan's soil at all costs.' This is a thinly veiled nuclear threat: Pakistan is prepared to use low-yield battlefield nukes on its own territory against Indian troops if the invasion isn't reversed. Pakistan's National Command Authority (NCA) is convened and puts its strategic forces on high alert, while diplomats inform Washington and Beijing that Pakistan may have to resort to 'any means necessary' if Indian forces do not withdraw. By brandishing the Nasr, Islamabad underscores that its nuclear red lines – once merely threatened – are on the verge of being crossed, aiming to stall India's ground offensive through sheer intimidation.11) Blue 6 (India) ATTACK – India pauses its advance and escalates strategic signalling in return. The sight of Pakistan's nuclear-ready missiles gives New Delhi pause. Wary of entering a nuclear minefield, India orders its IBG to halt further advances – the limited territorial gain is deemed sufficient for now. However, India needs to answer Pakistan's nuclear sabre-rattling with its own show of resolve (short of brandishing nukes outright). To this end, India conducts a 'warning shot' of its own: the Indian Strategic Forces Command carries out a test launch of an Agni-II intermediate-range ballistic missile from a coastal test site in the Bay of Bengal.The dummy missile flies a few hundred kilometres before splashing down in open waters, demonstrating India's capability to strike back hard if Pakistan escalates to nuclear use. Such missile tests as a show of force have been part of India's crisis playbook in the past , and this one is calibrated to send a dual message – to Pakistan: that India's strategic arsenal is ready and massive retaliation remains on the table, and to the international community: that India is still acting responsibly by testing over the ocean rather than targeting any cities. Simultaneously, India quietly places its nuclear forces on heightened alert and disperses air assets, while the Prime Minister addresses the nation, underscoring India's restraint and warning Pakistan against crossing the ultimate line. This dramatic military confrontation brings the crisis to the brink of the nuclear threshold – 'the highest rung on the ladder before nuclear war becomes thinkable'.12) Red 6 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Under global pressure, Pakistan steps back from the nuclear brink. Pakistan's brinkmanship elicits immediate international intervention. The United States, China, and other major powers deliver urgent demarches to Islamabad (and New Delhi) to prevent a nuclear holocaust. Behind closed doors, Beijing warns its ally Pakistan that any use of nuclear weapons would be suicidal, and Washington offers to mediate if Pakistan ceases further escalation. Realising that nuclear use would invite devastating retaliation, Pakistan's leadership decides to stop short.Pakistan announces a unilateral ceasefire in the Punjab sector, declaring that its nuclear deployment has "forced the enemy to rethink". At the same time, Islamabad insists that it has "no choice but to prepare nuclear defences" in the face of Indian aggression, attempting to justify its actions to the world. Pakistani officials privately convey to Indian backchannels that if India halts its offensive and agrees to talks, Pakistan will hold off on any nuclear use. The crisis has reached a crescendo, and Pakistan now seeks a ladder down.13) Blue 7 (India) ATTACK – India agrees to a ceasefire, having made its point. With Pakistan blinking and international calls for de-escalation at a fever pitch, India seizes the opportunity to declare its objectives met. The Indian government announces that offensive operations will be paused, framing it as a response to Pakistan's 'sensible decision' to back down on nuclear threats. Indian forces hold their captured territory for now but cease further advances, awaiting diplomatic negotiations.New Delhi conveys through the U.S. and others that it expects Pakistan to crack down on the terror groups responsible for Pahalgam as part of any end-of-crisis deal. Domestically, India's leadership projects this outcome as a victory: a 'new India' that punished terrorism through multi-domain strikes and forced Pakistan to the brink without flinching . The Blue Army stands down from high alert gradually, while staying vigilant in case of any relapse.14) Red 7 (Pakistan) RESPONSE – Pakistan grudgingly stands down and claims victory in defence. Pakistan's military, though rattled, saves face by spinning the events to its public. Islamabad accepts the ceasefire and orders its forces to pull back from forward positions; the Nasr launchers are moved back from the border and put on standby. In press conferences, Pakistani officials boast that Pakistan's resolute defence – 'by all means at our disposal' – deterred India from further aggression. They hail the avoidance of full-scale war as a sign of Pakistani strength and responsible leadership.Quietly, Pakistan also rounds up a few militant leaders (as a token concession to ease Indian and international pressure), though its fundamental support for proxy groups is likely to continue covertly. With both sides claiming tactical success, the intense crisis winds down in an uneasy stalemate. The short conflict concludes with India having delivered a punishing, unprecedented riposte for terror, and Pakistan narrowly avoiding disaster while asserting that its nuclear tripwire remained intact.15) Blue 8 (India) – Crisis termination and aftermath. A tense calm falls as the guns go silent under a new informal understanding. Back-channel talks, facilitated by global powers, lead to a mutual pullback: India withdraws its IBG from the captured Pakistani village weeks later, once Pakistan agrees in principle to rein in militant infiltrations (a promise whose sincerity remains to be tested). Both nations step back from the brink, relieved at averting nuclear war.The war game ends with a plausible de-escalation: India showcases new military prowess and a willingness to retaliate in innovative ways, while Pakistan's leadership, though bruised, avoids total humiliation or destruction. Strategists around the world take note of the conflict's many firsts – naval missile strikes, cyberattacks, drone swarms, and near-use of tactical nukes – as South Asia enters a new era of brinkmanship. Ultimately, the crisis demonstrates how carefully calibrated aggression, informed by doctrine and wargaming foresight, can push the envelope yet still be dialled back before catastrophe.Both Red and Blue retreat to their corners, each with lessons learnt, as an uneasy peace resumes its hold on the subcontinent.Tune InTrending Reel