Astronomers Explain NASA's 2032 Asteroid Projections
On Tuesday, NASA scientists predicted a 3.1% chance of an asteroid hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
Then the odds dropped to about 1.5%.
Then, in an update released Thursday, they dropped the chance of impact again, this time to a scant .28%
It was the latest in a game of up-and-down predictions over the object, named Asteroid 2024 YR4.
So what gives?
We talked to two astronomers to break down some of the complexities behind tracking asteroids, and shed some light on whether we should be worried.
"We are regularly finding small rocks and small asteroids that are on a path to hit our planet," Pamela Gay, senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute, said. "But this object is actually about the same size as a 747 give or take."
It was spotted in December.
"When we first discover an asteroid, we just see it as this point of light that is moving across the sky," Gay said. "We don't know exactly how large it is. And we figure all of these things out by watching the movement, and then matching what orbits can possibly match what we're seeing happening in the sky."
The asteroid will be visible to scientists using massive telescopes until April. The James Webb Space Telescope will get a peek, too. Then it won't be visible again from our planet until 2028.
"It ends up closest to the Earth about every 4 years, but 'closest' has a whole lot of variation," Gay said.
That brings us to 2032.
Currently, YR4 is hurtling through space about 52 million miles away from us.
"For something like that to hit the Earth is very, very rare," said Stephan Martin, an astronomer who worked on the Hubble telescope. "It doesn't happen more than once in every few million years or a dozen million years. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over this."
In fact, as of Thursday, the asteroid had a greater chance of hitting the moon than it did Earth. Granted, the odds of that were also low at just 1%.
"In 2032, when it has a chance of attacking us, it's probably going to actually pass about 100,000 to 200,000 kilometers away," Gay said when we talked to her Thursday morning.
That's between about 60,000 and 120,000 miles.
Maybe.
An experimental NASA mission called DART, short for Double Asteroid Redirection Test, successfully nudged the path of an asteroid in space in 2022. It was the first such test of its kind.
Scientists and different space groups are already kicking around the idea of intercepting YR4.
"This is why we did the DART mission," Gay said. "It was to confirm that we have the ability to keep our world safe if we need to."
-Here's What A Ring Around The Moon Might Mean For Your Weather
-Look up: The Top Celestial Events Of 2025
-Astrophotographer Shares Story Of Stunning 'Planetary Parade' Image
Weather.com senior writer Jan Childs covers breaking news and features related to weather, space, climate change, the environment and everything in between.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
NASA scientists describe ‘absolute sh*tshow' at agency as Trump budget seeks to dismantle top US climate lab
NASA scientists are in a state of anxious limbo after the Trump administration proposed a budget that would eliminate one of the United States' top climate labs – the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, or GISS – as a standalone entity. In its place, it would move some of the lab's functions into a broader environmental modeling effort across the agency. Career specialists are now working remotely, awaiting details and even more unsure about their future at the lab after they were kicked out of their longtime home in New York City last week. Closing the lab for good could jeopardize its value and the country's leadership role in global climate science, sources say. 'It's an absolute sh*tshow,' one GISS scientist said under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. 'Morale at GISS has never been lower, and it feels for all of us that we are being abandoned by NASA leadership.' 'We are supposedly going to be integrated into this new virtual NASA modeling institute, but (we have) no idea what that will actually look like,' they said. NASA is defending its budget proposal, with a nod toward the lab's future. 'NASA's GISS has a significant place in the history of space science and its work is critical for the Earth Science Division, particularly as the division looks to the future of its modeling work and capabilities,' NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner said in a statement. 'Fundamental contributions in research and applications from GISS directly impact daily life by showing the Earth system connections that impact the air we breathe, our health, the food we grow, and the cities we live in,' Warner said. GISS has a storied history in climate science on the global scale. James Hansen, a former director, first called national attention to human-caused global warming at a Senate hearing during the hot summer of 1988. The lab, founded in 1961, is still known worldwide for its computer modeling of the planet that enable scientists to make projections for how climate change may affect global temperatures, precipitation, extreme weather events and other variables. The about 125 scientists who work there are also known for tracking global temperatures, with GISS' records serving as one of the independent checks on other labs around the world monitoring global warming. The lab stands out, the scientist said, for its 'fundamental work contributing to our understanding of global warming, volcanic and aerosol forcing of climate, and advances in detection and attribution' of climate change impacts. 'All work that was curiosity-driven and enabled by the autonomy we had at GISS to pursue these questions,' they said, adding: 'Everyone is stressed because we have no clarity from leadership on even what the long-term plan is. (It) Really feels like we are just being left to die on the vine.' Another GISS scientist, who also spoke under the condition of anonymity, said the lab's independence has been key to its success, which can be seen in the abundance of published studies from researchers at the facility. The autonomy afforded to GISS over the years, given its distance from NASA headquarters in Washington, and its academic-like freedom helped its researchers take on important studies that might not be pursued in other circumstances, they said. And unlike high-level managers at NASA, GISS' leadership received high marks for their communications and advocacy of the center's work, according to three researchers. 'It is important for climate modeling to continue,' one of the GISS researchers said. 'They're the best tools that we have for the planet.' A technical NASA budget supplement released late last week committed to 'strengthening America's leadership in space exploration while exercising fiscal responsibility. NASA is adapting the way we work and invest to accomplish our mission,' Warner, the spokesperson, said. That Republicans' proposed NASA budget includes funding for climate modeling at all is notable, considering its cuts for space exploration and overall Earth science. Numerous space exploration missions and satellites would be abandoned under the budget, including some satellites already in space that are actively sending climate-related data back to Earth. The budget supplement makes GISS' fate both clear and hazy. It states Earth system modeling activities at four different NASA centers will be merged into one 'virtual institute.' This would incorporate 'core capabilities' of GISS 'as needed,' it adds. 'GISS as an independent entity will not continue,' the document says. This fate may be considerably better for NASA's climate scientists than the worst-case scenario seen at agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, where the budget for nearly its entire weather and climate research portfolio would be zeroed out and most of its research labs shuttered. Overall, the NASA budget would be a 24% cut compared to last year, with a 47% cut to agency science activities, according to The Planetary Society, a group that advances space science and innovation. Its analysis found the NASA funding level would be the smallest since 1961 when adjusted for inflation. The ultimate decisions on the future of climate modeling at NASA, as well as its space exploration activities, will fall to Congress as members consider the budget proposal, adding even more uncertainty to an already fraught period for GISS's staff.
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Ispace Resilience moon lander scheduled for afternoon touchdown
June 5 (UPI) -- Privately owned Japanese aerospace company ispace on Thursday will make its second attempt to land a remotely controlled capsule on the moon as part of its settlement effort. The uncrewed ispace Resilience moon lander is scheduled to touch down on the moon at 3:17 EDT on Thursday, but the landing time would change if its landing location does, too. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on Jan. 15 launched the ispace lander to the moon along with a private Blue Ghost moon lander built by Firefly Aerospace, reported. The Blue Ghost touched down on the Mare Crisium region of the moon on March 2. The Resilience mission took much longer to reach the moon due to a low-energy transfer path that ispace chose for its lander, which arrived in orbit around the moon on May 6. The Resilience is scheduled to land on the moon's Mare Figoris region, which is located on the near side of the moon's northern hemisphere. The about 7.5-foot-tall lander contains a four-wheeled rover named Tenacious for exploring the lunar surface in the moon's unexplored northern region. The rover contains a high-definition camera, a shovel for collecting lunar samples for NASA and weighs about 11 pounds. It also contains a tiny red cottage that its builder, Mikael Genberg, named the Moonhouse, which the rover will place on the moon's surface. The Resilience also might land on one of three secondary locations on the moon if the primary landing spot isn't feasible, which would postpone its landing to another day. If the primary landing spot is available, the touchdown is scheduled to be streamed live starting at 2:20 p.m. EDT on the ispace YouTube channel. The livestream will be presented in English, but another livestream is available in Japanese. A similar ispace mission in April 2023 failed when its uncrewed lander crashed while trying to land in the moon's Atlas Crater. It was ispace's first attempt to put a lander on the moon. The mission is part of ispace's plan to colonize the moon by having people living on it by 2040, ABC News reported. The privately owned aerospace firm intends to build a city housing 1,000 people and would host thousands more who could visit as tourists. Officials at ispace also plan to land a much larger lander on the moon with assistance from NASA. That mission is scheduled to launch by 2027.
Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Butch Wilmore, Suni Williams launched on Starliner 1 year ago. What's next for spacecraft?
The first human spaceflight for Boeing's Starliner made headlines for all the wrong reasons. But one year after its launch, it appears neither Boeing nor NASA have given up the spacecraft. On June 5, 2024, the Starliner got off the ground from Florida with two experienced NASA astronauts aboard for what was to be a brief trip to the International Space Station. Days then stretched into months after mission engineers noticed that the vehicle had encountered a slew of mechanical issues during its orbital voyage. As a result, the Starliner's crew, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, spent more than nine months and 280 days in orbit as part of NASA's contingency plan to get them back home. While the flight test went far from according to plan, both NASA and Boeing have given signs that there's still hope for the Starliner to fly again – following a lot more development, no doubt. Here's what to know about the Starliner mission and what's next for Boeing and NASA. Boeing Starliner: On anniversary of Florida launch, look back at mission's biggest moments Boeing is developing the Starliner spacecraft with the goal of it becoming a second operational vehicle for NASA to transport crews and cargo to the space station. The missions would be contracted under the U.S. space agency's commercial crew program, under which NASA pays private companies to conduct orbital spaceflights using their own commercial vehicles. SpaceX has already been making routine trips since 2020 to the space station under the program using its Dragon capsule. Standing nearly 27 feet tall and about 13 feet wide, Dragon capsules can carry up to seven astronauts into orbit, though most of SpaceX's Crew missions feature a contingent of four. The Crew missions launch on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket – one of the most active in the world – from Launch Complex 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center near Cape Canaveral, Florida. As the two astronauts selected for the Starliner's maiden crewed flight test, Wilmore and Williams launched June 5, 2024, on a mission to test a vehicle intended to one day join the SpaceX Dragon in transporting NASA astronauts to orbit. The astronauts reached the International Space Station a day after launching, where they were expected to remain for about 10 days before returning home. But the mission ended in failure when a slew of technical issues with the spacecraft prompted NASA to determine that the Starliner was not able to safely transport its crew back to Earth. Instead, Wilmore and Williams had no choice but to watch the spacecraft that brought them to the station undock Sept. 6 without them to make an autonomous landing in New Mexico. Under a plan NASA announced in August 2024, a SpaceX Dragon that was already due to reach the space station on a mission of its own was selected as the vehicle to ferry Wilmore and Williams home. That mission launched as planned in late September, but with one crucial change: Just two astronauts were on board the Dragon instead of four to leave two extra seats for Wilmore and Williams. That meant the astronauts who crewed the Starliner were due to remain at the station for a few extra months as Crew-9 spacefarers, NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov, completed their six-month mission. Then, once the Crew-10 replacement mission arrived March 15, the stage was set for the original Starliner crew members to finally return to Earth. The SpaceX Dragon vehicle carrying Wilmore, Williams, Hague and Gorbunov made a parachute-assisted water landing March 19 off the coast of Florida. As of late March, NASA was moving ahead with plans to work with Boeing toward making Starliner operational. The aerospace company had plans to conduct more tests this summer at NASA's White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico while making modifications to the vehicle to prepare it for routine spaceflight, NASA officials have said. That includes fixing the thruster issues from the first crewed spaceflight and conducting more propulsion system testing. Teams have also been testing new methods for sealing the helium system to mitigate the risk of future leaks, NASA said in a March 27 blog post – its last public update about the Starliner spacecraft. The USA TODAY Network has reached out to NASA for more information on the status of Starliner. An independent watchdog report further determined in its 2024 report that other problems with Starliner also require modification before it can be certified. That includes a battery redesign plan and work to strengthen the landing airbag backing panel. "NASA is seeing the commitment from Boeing to adding the Starliner system to the nation's crew transportation base," Ken Bowersox, NASA's associate administrator for space operations, said in a March statement. But when Starliner could next fly – with or without a crew – remains to be determined. Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at elagatta@ This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Butch Wilmore, Suni Williams crewed Starliner year ago. Will it fly again?
