Picks, best bets and odds for the Players Championship 2025
Picks, best bets and odds for the Players Championship 2025
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Scottie Scheffler on the pressure of being No. 1 in the world
Scottie Scheffler dished on the challenge of being the No. 1 player in the world at the Players Championship.
The biggest tournament of the PGA Tour season is here.
Well, OK, the biggest in terms of money. But isn't that why we're here?
The 2025 Players Championship and its season-high $25 million purse is really the kickoff to golf's majors — even if it doesn't technically qualify as one. The tournament has all the hallmarks of the biggest events of the season: An elite course in TPC Sawgrass with arguably the most iconic hole in golf (the island green No. 17), a stacked field featuring 48 of the top 50 golfers in the world and, yes it's worth mentioning again, that purse.
Only a few days after a heated Arnold Palmer Invitational came down to the final few holes on Sunday, the Florida swing moves from Orlando to Ponte Vedra Beach where the best golfers in the world are ready to tackle one of the sport's great gauntlets.
Here's how we're betting on them.
All odds via BetMGM
Who's winning The Players?
Scottie Scheffler (+500) 3 Units
This is about more than our obligatory bet on the undisputed best golfer in the world. Not only is Scheffler a back-to-back champion at the Players, he sure looks like he's rounded into form and is ready to own every tournament from now until September. At the API last week, Scottie's iron play was dialed on Sunday while his driving was easily his best to date. Prepare for another Scheffler Special this week.
Justin Thomas (+2500) 2 Units
If Scheffler weren't in the field, we'd be throwing a lot more on JT. He already has three top-10 finishes in five starts this season as well as a victory at the Players back in 2021. Thomas has played 34 rounds at TPC Sawgrass with a true strokes gained of +1.76, per DataGolf. After lurking on the leaderboard to begin the year, this should be the week a revamped Thomas makes his move to the top of it.
Ludvig Aberg (+1800) 1 Unit
Yeah, we're going with the big guns this week, but how can you not? In his debut appearance at TPC Sawgrass last March, Aberg finished eighth with a true strokes gained of +3.19. Small sample size aside, it's the highest mark at Sawgrass in the field this year.
Who's finishing top 10?
Si Woo Kim (+400) 2 Units
Kim has two Top 10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass since 2021, including a T-6 last year. He plays this course +1.63 strokes gained better than expected with the sixth-best true strokes gained of anyone in the field (+2.15). After missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance, Kim finished 12th at Pebble Beach, T-21 at the Phoenix Open and T-24 at the Genesis. Buy stock now.
Hideki Matsuyama (+250) 2 Units
The price is a bit of a bummer, but Matsuyama's history at TPC probably requires it. Since 2019, he's gone T-8, Cut, DNP, 5th, T-6. Hideki is either right in the middle of things or at home. Considering his current form, and the fact he's been T-25 or better in four of his six starts this year, we'll assume Matsuyama is going to be in contention this week.
Who are the long-shot plays?
Nicolai Hojgaard (+15000 Outright / +1000 Top 10) 0.5 Units
Considering how chalk-y our outright picks were, it's only right to throw a few educated guesses on some long-shots this week. Hojgaard should be at the top of that list. While he missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last year, the 23-year-old from Denmark has vastly improved this season with a T-36 at Phoenix, 8th place at VidantaWorld and T-18 at the Cognizant. He's No. 1 on Tour in strokes gained approaching the green on par 3s, which is one of the five key metrics this week.
Alex Smalley (+15000 Outright / +1000 Top 10) 0.5 Units
Smalley has struggled with his scrambling a bit, which explains his low odds this week, but he's been fantastic off the tee and has picked up the sixth-most total strokes gained (1.589) of anyone in the field coming into this week. Only Michael Kim, Russell Henley, Nick Taylor, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler are ahead there.
Doug Ghim (+12500 Outright / +900 Top 10) 0.5 Units
Ghim's strokes gained on approach (1.158) has been better than Scheffler's (1.115) over their last five starts, which makes Ghim the second-best in the field behind Henrik Norlander — who has missed the cut in four of his last five starts. At TPC Sawgrass, in particular, Ghim has gone T-29, T-6, Cut, T-16 since 2021.
Joel Dahmen (+15000 Outright / +1000 Top 10) 0.5 Units
One of the best personalities on Tour is finding a game to match, lately. Dahmen has two top 10 finishes in his last four starts and is 11th in true strokes gained (+1.72) at TPC Sawgrass among this year's field. But that jumps to sixth-best when weighted against his course fit. Just something to think about.
One-And-Done: Scottie Scheffler
As promised last week, we're rolling with Scheffler at the Players. Yes, he'll likely be the most popular pick in every pool. It's ok to remember there's a reason for that. Scheffler is the back-to-back Players champion, but he also hasn't finished a round with a score above 69 since 2022. And it's the payouts that are key here. Because of the outsized purse, top 5 or better will earn Scheffler north of $900,000. At any other signature event he'd have to place top 3 to get close to the million-dollar mark. There's no downside to saving Scheffler for a week when fewer people in your pool may grab him, but no other tournament provides the same upside in a One-And-Done as The PLAYERS.
Who's missing The cut?
Xander Schauffele (+250) 1 Unit
Xander will be back on top of his game soon enough, but after a long layoff due to a rib injury — and some notable rust in his return at the API last week — he's going to need some more time to figure things out.
Viktor Hovland (+125) 1 Unit
The young star is going through a massive slump right now. Or as Hovland himself put it two months ago, "I suck at [golf] right now". Changing his shoes back to some old Nike's last week wasn't a panacea. He still missed the cut at the API — making it back-to-back starts Hovland didn't reach the weekend rounds. TPC Sawgrass is not really a place where people go to find their games. It's where the best go prove they've already discovered it.
17th Hole Specials!
17th Hole - Hole in One (+165) 5 Units
Remember in 2023, when we saw THREE aces at No. 17? Don't expect that again this year, but count on at least one. If you're feeling adventurous you can bet on 2+ aces at 17 (+450). That covers all four rounds.
17th Hole - 51 Or Less Balls In Water (-145) 3 Units
Last year only 36 ended up in the water. In 2023 it was 58. The difference tends to be how much wind is whipping through the course. Fortunately, the forecast this week calls for some rather light breezes with a high of 17 mph gusts on Saturday.
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