With its strikes against Iran, US may be wading into a conflict it cannot manage

Indian Express

3 hours ago

In what may prove to be a defining moment for Donald Trump's presidency, in the early hours of June 22, the US directly entered the Israel-Iran war. In a swift operation, US planes targeted three nuclear sites in Iran and retreated. The American media reported that US B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped 30,000-pound, GPS-guided, bunker buster bombs — GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) — on the underground site at Fordow, while the other two sites at Natanz and Isfahan were targeted by Tomahawk missiles. Breaking the news on Truth Social, Trump ended his post with 'Now is the time for peace.' The assertion seems to flow from his oft-repeated doctrine of 'Peace through strength'. However, the history of US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, based on the same doctrine, certainly brought no peace to either of these nations or to the US. The bloodshed continued for years and extremist groups like al Qaeda and Daesh/Islamic State emerged from these wars to haunt the world. Could the US get bogged down with yet another war? What would it mean for Trump?
Trump has often stated that his objective is to ensure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. However, over the past few weeks, Trump clearly listed two goals and one aspiration. The first goal was that Iran should negotiate a deal for a peaceful nuclear programme and totally give up enrichment capability, and the second goal was that Iran should surrender in the war with Israel. His aspiration was to see a regime change in Iran; he had even threatened possible action in this regard in the future. Has the targeting of three nuclear sites brought Trump closer to achieving his goals and aspirations? Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has emphasised that Iran will not bring its nuclear programme to 'zero'. A couple of hours after the US airstrikes, Iran restarted air attacks on targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa in Israel.
Iranian officials have claimed that Fordow had been 'completely emptied and evacuated' a long time ago and that it did not suffer 'irreversible' damage. It is not hard to imagine Iran taking precautions by taking a cue from the US airstrikes on Houthi targets earlier. Western media reports had indicated that since late-March, the US had deployed six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers at the base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. These bombers were reportedly used to drop a GBU-57 MOP on underground Houthi targets in Yemen, while the US was engaged in warding off attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea. Initially developed for 'psychological' effect, the 'MOP' was perhaps used to achieve a deal with the Houthis — which happened in May — with both sides pledging not to attack each other.
It would be hard to ascertain whether uranium-enriching centrifuges and the stock of enriched uranium remain intact, without having international inspections or invading Iran. Moreover, Russia has clearly warned against the targeting of the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. Apart from the presence of hundreds of Russians building more nuclear facilities at the site, Russia had warned that an attack on the plant would have consequences comparable to the Chernobyl accident in the former USSR in 1986.
The Chernobyl accident led to prolonged release into the atmosphere of large quantities of radioactive substances, including gases, aerosols and finely fragmented nuclear fuel particles. Due to specific conditions such as graphite fires and winds, radioactivity had spread across the northern hemisphere, mainly Europe, and was also recorded in the US, Canada and Japan. The targeting of nuclear sites which are not nuclear power plants, with the objective of destroying centrifuges used for uranium enrichment, remains a dangerous proposition too. These nuclear sites may also be storage sites for radioactive material, including Spent Fuel or High Level Waste (HLW), or even a research reactor.
It is a great relief to the global community that the head of the Iranian National Centre for Nuclear Safety System has confirmed that no radioactive contamination or nuclear radiation was detected outside the targeted sites. By mid-morning, the IAEA too informed that no increase in 'off-site radiation levels' had been reported. The Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission independently confirmed the same for all Gulf Cooperation Council States. The Kuwaiti National Guard too stated that the radiation levels in the air and water remained stable across the country. The fallout of targeting nuclear sites is and will remain the key concern for regional and global nations, a fact the US cannot ignore.
By naming his successors, the supreme leader of Iran has ensured that the regime remains intact in any eventuality. The US attacks on nuclear sites in a country that takes pride in its scientific prowess are likely to solidify public support for the supreme leader as a rallying point. In the Israel-Iran war, sabotage, miscalculations or accidents could still draw US troops into the theatre. It might be recalled that about 125,000 US and British troops had invaded Iraq in March 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, trapping the US in a bloody war which, over eight years, killed 4,400 of its soldiers and injured several thousands. The US withdrew fully by December 2011, but the destabilisation of the region saw the emergence of Daesh in Iraq around 2012 and the rise of a Caliphate. The US-led coalition was forced to return to the theatre in 2014. The rest is history.
As more questions will be asked about the remaining capability of Iran, will the US continue to indulge in adventurism that could result in nuclear catastrophe for the region and beyond? Trump's economic plans would come to a standstill if he needs to manage the physical, political and legal fallout of such actions. With the airstrikes, the US has lost the power to bring Iran to the negotiating table on its own. It would need help from Russia and Europe, and maybe also China, to pursue nuclear talks with Iran. The world is in a dangerous phase.
The writer is a security analyst and former director general of police