'We have won the election': Germany's conservative leaders celebrate as far-right takes second place
Latest projections show CDU with 8-point leadpublished at 21:35 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February
21:35 GMT 23 February
The CDU has won this election, but these latest projections from both big public broadcasters indicate that it's fallen short of the 30% it was expected to achieve.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) however now looks on course to break that 20% barrier - 10 points higher than it achieved only four years ago.
The big difference between the two projections from the public broadcasters is that ZDF suggests one of the smaller parties, the left-populist BSW, will squeak into parliament with 5% of the vote. That is yet to be confirmed.
Stick with us as we bring further developments and analysis.
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New Statesman
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Photo by Diego Radames/Anadolu via Getty Images A toxic dynamic centred on refugee policy is creating political instability across much of Europe. As established mainstream parties struggle to figure out how best to deal with the far right, they are succumbing to pressure to get tougher on asylum seekers and thus mainstreaming and normalising far-right rhetoric and policy. But whether they exclude those movements from government or seek to cooperate with them, it is becoming increasingly difficult to form stable governments in Europe. On 3 June, the Dutch government collapsed when Geert Wilders withdrew his far-right Freedom Party (PVV) from the four-party coalition just over a year after it was formed. After the election in November 2023 in which the PVV emerged as the biggest party in the Dutch parliament, it took six months to form a government that included the centre-right People's Party (VVD) and was led by Dick Schoof, a career civil servant. New elections will now be held, though the date has not yet been set. After the 2023 election, Wilders had promised 'the toughest asylum policy ever' and made sure that his party controlled the asylum ministry so that it could implement his radical ten-point plan. This included deploying the army at Dutch borders, turning away all new asylum seekers, deporting Syrians whose claims were already being processed, and rejecting EU quotas. But on 3 June, he declared that the new government had not gone far enough or quickly enough and pulled out. In the Netherlands, mainstream parties have long cooperated with the far right. As far back as 2010, the then-VVD leader Mark Rutte led a minority government that had a confidence-and-supply agreement with the PVV. This week's events illustrate the fragility of that approach. Wilders hopes his party will do even better in the new elections and that he will be able to become prime minister himself. 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But as controversial as this was – it alienated the Social Democrats (SPD), with whom Merz knew he would likely have to cooperate after the election – it falls a long way short of what has happened in the Netherlands. It remains politically impossible for Germany's Christian Democrats to form a minority government dependent on AfD votes as Rutte did, let alone actually form a coalition with it. This meant that, after the election, Merz's only option was to form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. (Some right-wing Christian Democrats, such as the historian Andreas Rödder, are beginning to argue that they need to break the taboo on cooperation with the AfD if only to give themselves other options and thus increase their power in negotiations with the SPD.) Yet despite this different approach, the political situation in Germany is now remarkably similar to that in the Netherlands. Like Wilders, Merz ran on a promise to get even tougher on asylum seekers – he promised a 'de-facto entry ban' that would have violated EU law. For all the obsessive focus on maintaining the Brandmauer, the boundaries between the centrists and the far right on refugee policy have long been blurred – in fact Wilders argues that Germany is already doing much of what he wants to do. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe However, while Merz and the Social Democrats had settled on a compromise on asylum policy – the coalition agreement promised a 'deportation offensive' but Merz was forced to dilute his promise of an entry ban – it could yet unravel. This week, a Berlin court ruled that it was unlawful for German border guards to push back three Somalis who had crossed the border from Poland and sought to claim asylum in Germany. In response, Merz seemed to suggest that he might be prepared to ignore the ruling. 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"I think he's well prepared for this meeting," Friedrich Merz's spokesman told reporters this week. Merz - from the centre-right CDU party - is not just prepared, but on friendly terms with the US President, according to German media. The pair are even said to have exchanged text messages and be on a first name basis, Germany's ARD news outlet has reported. It's always important to not talk for too long," Merz recently opined on German TV. "But to keep it short and also let him talk." Merz's forthright, "shoot-from-the-hip" style of politics could add an interesting dimension to the meeting. His remarks can be surprising and make headlines - a stark contrast to those of his more cautious predecessors, Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel. Though a traditional supporter of transatlantic relations, Merz raised eyebrows in February by declaring the current US administration is "indifferent to the fate of Europe". So far, the White House has been uncharacteristically quiet about Merz's visit. 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Telegraph
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