Arizona State football undervalued in ESPN metric, ESPN writer says: 'Fire and motivation'
ESPN has released its Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 college football season and you have to scroll down a bit to find the Arizona State Sun Devils football team, the defending Big 12 champions.
The Sun Devils are the second Big 12 team in the rankings, coming in at No. 24 in the nation. Kansas State is the lone Big 12 team above them, at No. 21.
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The FPI gives Kenny Dillingham's team a 13% chance to win the Big 12 and a 16.1% chance to return to the College Football Playoff in the upcoming season. Kansas State leads the conference at 19.9% to win the Big 12 and 22.2% to make the playoff.
Big 12 football win total odds: Arizona | Arizona State | Baylor | BYU | Cincinnati | Colorado | Houston | Iowa State | Kansas | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU | Texas Tech | UCF | Utah | West Virginia | Big 12 rankings
Arizona State football 'undervalued' in ESPN ranking?
Is ASU football being undervalued in ESPN's predictive metric?
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Plenty of Arizona State, Big 12 and college football fans would probably answer that question in the affirmative. One ESPN writer does, too.
Paolo Uggetti wrote that "it would not shock me to see them (Arizona State) make another playoff run."
He wrote of ASU's FPI ranking: "Even though Kenny Dillingham said at Big 12 spring meetings recently that being considered one of the conference's favorites after being picked to finish last in 2024 is 'less fun,' I still think FPI is slightly undervaluing the Sun Devils at No. 24. Sure, they lost star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, but they also return a quarterback in Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns last year) who could be a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, among several other starters and stalwarts of last year's Cinderella season. Dillingham won't flinch at now being considered a favorite to win the conference and I imagine he'll have ASU with plenty of fire and motivation come kickoff. It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run."
Big 12 football game picks: Arizona | Arizona State | Baylor | BYU | Cincinnati | Colorado | Houston | Iowa State | Kansas | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | TCU | Texas Tech | UCF | Utah | West Virginia | Projected Big 12 standings, records
Is Arizona State football undervalued in ESPN's preseason predictive metric? Some people certainly think so, including an ESPN writer.
'Baked-in bias' against Arizona State, Big 12?
Heartland College Sports' Bryan Clinton took it a step further, slamming ESPN's FPI for "baked-in bias" regarding Arizona State, and the Big 12 as a whole.
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Part of his argument: "ESPN's FPI is designed to be a predictive tool, balancing returning production, coaching continuity, schedule strength, and performance data. But the model's outputs this year raise serious questions about baked-in bias. Arizona State, the reigning Big 12 champion, is given just a 16.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Kansas State — ranked highest among Big 12 teams — has a 22.2% playoff probability, less than Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, all of whom have tougher paths and more roster turnover."
Good thing Arizona State gets a chance to prove itself again on the field.
The Sun Devils open their much-anticipated 2025 season on Aug. 30 at home against Northern Arizona.
College football conference championship odds: Big 12 | Big Ten | SEC | ACC | National championship odds: Big 12 | Big Ten | SEC | ACC | National title odds overall
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Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona State football ranking reaction: 'Baked-in' bias vs Big 12?
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