Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026
Elon Musk has said that he believes there is a 50 percent chance that his Mars spacecraft will make its first uncrewed voyage to the red planet at the end of 2026, just two days after the latest test-flight setback for his SpaceX firm.
Musk presented a detailed Starship development timeline in a video posted online by his Los Angeles area-based rocket company on Thursday.
The South African-born billionaire and SpaceX owner said his latest timeline for reaching Mars depended on whether the craft can complete several challenging technical feats during testing, specifically a post-launch refuelling manoeuvre in Earth's orbit.
In a video on social media platform X, which he also owns, Musk said his Starbase industrial complex and rocket launch facility in Texas was the 'gateway to Mars'.
'It is where we are going to develop the technology necessary to take humanity and civilisation and life as we know it to another planet for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth,' he said.
The end of 2026 is when a slim window opens offering the closest trip between Earth and Mars, as the planets align around the sun once every two years. This shorter distance would take seven to nine months to transit by spacecraft.
The first flight to Mars would carry a simulated crew consisting of Tesla-built humanoid Optimus robots. Human crews would then follow in the second or third landings.
In the video, Musk said he believed there was a 50-50 chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission. He added that if Starship was not ready by that time, SpaceX would wait another two years before trying again.
Musk's announcement comes just a day after he confirmed his departure from the administration of United States President Donald Trump, following a tumultuous few months in which his various businesses – including SpaceX and electric car maker Tesla – have come under growing strain.Musk's unofficial role leading Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has placed him in the crosshairs, as he has faced intense criticism for overseeing what has been decried as haphazard cuts to government programmes.
Faced with plunging stock prices and shareholder concern – most notably at Tesla – Musk said this week he would scale back his government role to focus on his private ventures.
In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send an uncrewed SpaceX vehicle to Mars as early as 2018, while he was targeting 2024 to launch the first crewed mission there.
But the mercurial entrepreneur's ambitions for interplanetary exploration have been beset by repeated setbacks over recent years.
Most recently, on Tuesday, Musk was due to deliver a live webcast from the company's Starbase in Texas following a ninth test flight of Starship that evening.
But the speech was cancelled without notice after Starship spun out of control and disintegrated about 30 minutes after launch, roughly halfway through its flight path, failing to achieve some of its most important test goals.
The mega-rocket re-entered the Earth's atmosphere earlier than planned on Wednesday after a fuel leak triggered uncontrollable spinning in space, according to the Reuters news agency.Posting on X after the failed flight, Musk said the test produced a lot of 'good data to review' as he promised a faster launch 'cadence' for the next several attempts.
There was also a failed launch in January – when the craft blew up moments after liftoff, raining debris over parts of the Caribbean and forcing commercial jetliners to change course – as well as in March.
Musk, who has spent billions of dollars on Starship's development, says the initiative is part of SpaceX's plan to colonise Mars.
The firm is also working with US government agency NASA to return humans to the Moon in 2027 onboard Starship, more than half a century since astronauts last walked on the lunar surface in 1972.
These efforts are a stepping stone towards launching NASA astronauts to Mars sometime in the 2030s.
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Khloe and Kim Kardashian both issued statements when they used the slur in clips shared on Instagram in 2018. LeBron James apologized at least twice for letting the r-word slip in postgame interviews in 2011 and 2014. Author John Green said in 2015 that he shouldn't have used the word in his popular YA novel 'Paper Towns,' in which it appears in a quote from a teenage character. Today, whether it's 'Silicon Valley tech bros' or far-right figures, people who use the r-word online appear to share a motivation — 'the appeal of transgression,' said Julie Ingersoll, a professor of religious studies at the University of North Florida. Many people who use the r-word know it will anger people who disagree with them, Ingersoll said — it's a way of 'owning the libs.' 'I think that they are flaunting their ability to offend and confront,' she said. 'Why do you need that word? If it bothers other people, why wouldn't you just pick a different word?' Content designed to provoke outrage is often more likely to court engagement — from both supporters and those who disagree, Benton said. Engagement guarantees visibility, and if the r-word is more visible online, it'll eventually become less jarring for users to encounter, he said. 'Clicks are the currency in the commerce of social media,' Benton said. 'And if I put up content where the r-word is prominently used, I can just guarantee there's going to be a few thousand replies.' Platforms can end up 'rewarding' controversial content that draws sustained attention, said Brandon Harris, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama who studies content creators, especially those in the 'manosphere.' 'Being controversial is more profitable than being kind to people,' Harris told CNN. Inconsistent guidelines and enforcement on what constitutes hate speech also makes it easier to get away with using hurtful terms, Harris said. X and Spotify didn't respond to CNN's requests for comment on their hate speech guidelines, but neither platform allows attacking other users based on disability, among other characteristics. Content that violates these rules is sometimes removed, demonetized or made less visible, both companies have said. X does allow users to post 'potentially inflammatory content' and encourages users to block or unfollow other users whose content offends them. Spokespeople for Meta and YouTube said their platforms do not allow the r-word to be used to mock a person's disability, but the word is not banned outright on either platform. The agitators using such language don't necessarily need to believe the things they say, Harris said — intent doesn't matter when the outcome normalizes the casual use of a hurtful term. A spike in online use of the r-word would be harmful on its own. But even more concerning is what the slur's return represents, Massanari said. 'These are never just about the words,' she said. 'The words are standing in place for a whole symbol.' What's happening now, where notable people are using the r-word in posts on X or on podcasts, is a 'classic testing of the waters,' Massanari said, when influential people who get paid to agitate see how far they can push the line. 'These communities come out to denigrate, to make fun of, to demonize the most marginalized,' she said. The r-word will almost certainly not be the last slur to reemerge on popular platforms, from popular users, Benton said. And when the line is continually pushed, it can take people to 'the worst spaces imaginable,' he said. 'The term itself — the casual use of it — is a problem,' he said. 'The normalization of it will allow even more problematic terms to be normalized.' Other hurtful words are already being used to harm other marginalized people, Harris pointed out. Republican Rep. Nancy Mace earlier this year repeatedly used an anti-transgender slur in a House Oversight Committee hearing. CNN reached out to Mace about her use of the word. In response, her communications director said, 'While you tiptoe' around hurting feelings, the congresswoman 'is standing up for women and girls.' 'We're now using language that promotes cruelty, and not just cruelty but casual cruelty — where you just offhandedly don't think about it and dismiss someone's humanity,' Harris said of using slurs like those lobbed at trans people and people with disabilities. Seeing how the r-word proliferates offline is the 'next threshold' to cross, Benton said. Some people likely never stopped privately using the r-word, he said, but if people who aren't protected by wealth, fame or political affiliations use the word at their workplace or in social settings, they could face punishing consequences. Many people are actively pushing back against the r-word when they encounter it. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has a son with Down syndrome, earlier this year called out Kanye West, ''Christian conservatives'' and 'popular newbie-conservative women' for 'thinking it's hip to ramp up use of the 'R' word.' 'Please unfollow me & know that my disrespect for you is insurmountable,' she wrote on X in March. 'The Brady Bunch' star Maureen McCormick, who's also a Special Olympics ambassador, said that Joe Rogan celebrating the resurgence of the r-word 'ignores the terrible hurt' the slur causes people with disabilities. 'This is not a victory,' she wrote on X, prompting more than 8,000 replies from supporters and detractors alike. 'It is a regression.' Engaging with users who post the r-word to court outrage and online engagement can cause well-meaning people to fall into a trap of rage bait, Benton, Harris and Massanari cautioned. But there must still be resistance against reintegrating the r-word into regular speech, they said — a conversation most effective when it's had offline, person to person. 'We have to continue to have courage, to have these conversations and these moments of resistance to say, 'We don't appreciate what you're doing, we don't share your values,'' Harris said. Sophie Stern, the dance teacher from Arizona, has a word of guidance for anyone who wants to pick up the r-word: 'Don't.'
