Ukraine and Russia agree on troop exchange, no progress toward ending war
Representatives of Russia and Ukraine met Monday for their second round of direct peace talks in just over two weeks, but aside from agreeing to swap thousands of their dead and seriously wounded troops, they made no progress toward ending the three-year-old war, officials said.The talks unfolded a day after a string of stunning long-range attacks by both sides, with Ukraine launching a devastating drone assault on Russian air bases and Russia hurling its largest drone attack of the war against Ukraine.advertisementAt the negotiating table, Russia presented a memorandum setting out the Kremlin's terms for ending hostilities, the Ukrainian delegation said.
Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who led the Ukrainian delegation, told reporters that Kyiv officials would need a week to review the document and decide on a response. Ukraine proposed further talks on a date between June 20 and June 30, he said.After the talks, Russian state news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti published the text of the Russian memorandum, which suggested that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the four regions that Russia annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured, as a condition for a ceasefire.As an alternate way of reaching a truce, the memorandum presses Ukraine to halt its mobilisation efforts and freeze Western arms deliveries, conditions were suggested earlier by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The document also suggests that Ukraine stop any redeployment of forces and ban any military presence of third countries on its soil as conditions for halting hostilities.advertisementThe Russian document further proposes that Ukraine end martial law and hold elections, after which the two countries could sign a comprehensive peace treaty that would see Ukraine declare its neutral status, abandon its bid to join NATO, set limits on the size of its armed forces and recognise Russian as the country's official language on par with Ukrainian.Ukraine and the West have previously rejected all those demands from Moscow.In other steps, the delegations agreed to swap 6,000 bodies of soldiers killed in action and to set up a commission to exchange seriously wounded troops.Kyiv officials said their surprise drone attack Sunday damaged or destroyed more than 40 warplanes at air bases deep inside Russia, including the remote Arctic, Siberian and Far East regions more than 7,000 kilometers (4,300 miles) from Ukraine.The complex and unprecedented raid, which struck simultaneously in three time zones, took over a year and a half to prepare and was 'a major slap in the face for Russia's military power," said Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the Ukrainian security service, who led its planning.Zelenskyy called it a 'brilliant operation' that would go down in history. The effort destroyed or heavily damaged nearly a third of Moscow's strategic bomber fleet, according to Ukrainian officials.advertisementRussia on Sunday fired the biggest number of drones -- 472 -- at Ukraine since its full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine's air force said, in an apparent effort to overwhelm air defences. That was part of a recently escalating campaign of strikes in civilian areas of Ukraine.HOPES LOW FOR PEACE PROSPECTSUS-led efforts to push the two sides into accepting a ceasefire have so far failed. Ukraine accepted the proposed truce, but the Kremlin effectively rejected it. Recent comments by senior officials in both countries indicate they remain far apart on the key conditions for stopping the war.The previous talks on May 16 in the same Turkish city were the first direct peace negotiations since the early weeks of Moscow's 2022 invasion. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the fact that the two sides met again on Monday was an achievement in itself amid the fierce fighting.'The fact that the meeting took place despite yesterday's incident is an important success in itself,' he said in a televised speech.Zelenskyy said during a trip to Lithuania on Monday that a new release of prisoners of war was being prepared after the Istanbul meeting. The May 16 talks also led to a swap of prisoners, with 1,000 on both sides being exchanged.advertisementDuring the talks, Zelenskyy said, the Ukrainian delegation handed over a list of nearly 400 abducted children. Russia responded by proposing to 'work on up to 10 children.'"That's their idea of addressing humanitarian issues,' Zelenskyy said Monday during an online briefing with journalists.The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant in 2023 for Putin and the country's commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, accusing them of abducting children from Ukraine.The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Putin, said Kyiv had made a 'show' out of the topic and that children would be returned if their parents or guardians could be located.Zelenskyy also told journalists that the Russian side said it was ready for a two- to three-day ceasefire to collect bodies from the battlefield, not a full ceasefire."I think they're idiots, because the whole point of a ceasefire is to prevent people from being killed in the first place. So you can see their mindset — it's just a brief pause in the war for them,' he added.advertisementThe relentless fighting has frustrated U.S. President Donald Trump's goal of bringing about a quick end to the war. A week ago, he expressed impatience with Putin as Moscow pounded Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles for a third straight night. Trump said on social media that Putin 'has gone absolutely CRAZY!'UKRAINE UPBEAT AFTER STRIKES ON AIR BASESUkraine was triumphant after targeting the distant Russian air bases. The official Russian response was muted, with the attack getting little coverage on state-controlled television. The Russia-1 television channel on Sunday evening spent a little over a minute on it with a brief Defense Ministry statement read out before images shifted to Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian positions.Zelenskyy said the setbacks for the Kremlin would help force it to the negotiating table, even as its pursues a summer offensive on the battlefield.'Russia must feel what its losses mean. That is what will push it toward diplomacy,' he said Monday in Vilnius, Lithuania, meeting with leaders from the Nordic nations and countries on NATO's eastern flank.Ukraine has occasionally struck airbases hosting Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bombers since early in the war, prompting Moscow to redeploy most of them to regions farther from the front line.advertisementBecause Sunday's drones were launched from trucks close to the bases in five Russian regions, military defences had virtually no time to prepare for them.Many Russian military bloggers chided the military for its failure to build protective shields for the bombers despite previous attacks, but the large size of the planes makes that challenging.The attacks were 'a big blow to Russian strategic air power' and exposed significant vulnerabilities in Moscow's military capabilities, said Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis, called it 'the most audacious attack of the war' and "a military and strategic game-changer.''Battered, beleaguered, tired and outnumbered, Ukrainians have, at minimal cost, in complete secrecy, and over vast distances, destroyed or damaged dozens, perhaps more, of Russia's strategic bombers,' he said.Fierce fighting has continued along the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, and both sides have hit each other's territory with deep strikes.Russian forces shelled Ukraine's southern Kherson region, killing three people and wounding 19 others, including two children, regional officials said Monday.Also, a missile strike and shelling around the southern city of Zaporizhzhia killed five people and wounded nine others, officials said.
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The Wire
36 minutes ago
- The Wire
As the G7 Clock Ticks, Silence over India's Invite and What it Means
New Delhi: A year ago, in the thick of a high-stakes general election campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had locked in his attendance at the G7 summit in Italy, confident enough of returning to power to reserve a seat at the outreach segment of the developed world's high table. The BJP fell short of a parliamentary majority, but within days of being sworn in, Prime Minister Modi flew to Italy, signalling where his diplomatic priorities lay. At the summit, he told world leaders that his victory was a ' victory of the entire democratic world '. A year on, with just 10 days to go for this year's G7 summit in the Canadian Rockies, there has been no public indication that India has been invited. Each year, the G7 host country invites a handful of external leaders. These choices reflect both the host's strategic objectives and the group's broader aim of engaging rising powers in an increasingly multipolar world. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attended five summits, when the group was still known as G8, as a special invitee. Modi made his debut in 2019 during the French presidency and went on to participate in four consecutive editions. The 2020 summit was held virtually due to the pandemic. Canada has remained tight-lipped about the guest list, with repeated queries to the G7 Canada secretariat only generating a standard reply that an announcement about special invitees would be made in due course. However, media reports made it clear that invitations had begun going out early. The new Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, was quick to reach out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy , shortly after assuming office in March, even before the snap polls, to extend an invitation. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese publicly confirmed receiving his invitation in the first week of May. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was invited during a phone call with Carney on May 15. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also received an invitation around the same time, as per Brazilian media reports. South Africa's High Commission in Ottawa told a Canadian news agency that Pretoria had been invited, though it did not confirm whether the country would attend. With others having received their invitations well in advance, a last-minute VVIP departure from the Indian capital to Canada appears slim. What's with the silence? Among diplomatic circles in Canada, India's absence from the confirmed guest list has triggered speculation, particularly given the guarded stance of Carney's office in response to informal inquiries. Canada claims to have chosen Brazil and South Africa in their capacities as chairs of COP and G20, respectively. Mexico, grappling with similar tensions with Trump-era policies, fits within Canada's strategic calculus. Australia remains a close Western ally. While both Ottawa and New Delhi have remained quiet, possibly to avoid confirming the denial, the the lack of clarity has already triggered political backlash in India. The Congress party has called the apparent snub a diplomatic failure. 'Whatever spin may be given, the fact remains that this is yet another big diplomatic bungle – after the blunder of allowing the US to overturn decades of Indian foreign policy by mediating between India and Pakistan and allowing American authorities to call for continued talks at a 'neutral site',' said Jairam Ramesh, Congress general secretary in charge of communications, on X. For Modi, who is facing domestic criticism over the diplomatic handling of the recent hostilities with Pakistan, the optics of appearing alongside world leaders would have been politically useful. It would also have underlined India's stature in contrast to Pakistan, which has never been invited to a G8 or G7 summit. It could also have presented an opportunity for a high-profile encounter with US President Donald Trump in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor. But, such an interaction could cut both ways politically for the Indian prime minister due to Trump's fondness for repeating the claim of having played a key role in halting the fighting. Even if an invitation were to arrive now, it is unclear whether New Delhi would be prepared to face certain protests by pro-Khalistani groups. While the summit venue at Kananaskis, Alberta, will be heavily secured, the Canadian hosts have devised a way to pierce the bubble – audio and video feeds from three designated protest zones will be livestreamed to screens at the summit venue. 'People who want to express themselves, as is their right, can't get close to the leaders, so the leaders won't see and hear the protests. So by establishing that video link, we are helping facilitate that Charter access,' said a senior Canadian official. Khalistani protests outside Indian diplomatic missions have long been a source of friction between India and Canada. India wanted a complete prohibition, while Canada has maintained that peaceful protests is protected under Canadian law. A last-minute invitation would also present serious logistical challenges. Accommodation around the venue is already scarce. A Canadian media report quoted the Japanese consul general as saying it had been a major challenge to secure rooms for the 300-member Japanese delegation. This year's G7 summit also comes twenty months after India's ties with the host country, Canada, collapsed. In September 2023, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told parliament that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen whom New Delhi had designated a Khalistani terrorist. India rejected the allegation and downgraded diplomatic relations. Since then, neither country has had an ambassador, and both embassies have been operating with reduced staff. When Canada was initially announced as host of the 2025 summit, it was assumed that Trudeau would chair the event, with Parliament's term running until 2026. At the time, there was little expectation that bilateral ties would improve enough for India to be invited. The hope was also that Trump's import tariffs would also spur both Canada and India to look beyond the Nijjar killings to urgently prioritise a diversified economic partnership. But, Canada has already signalled that full reconciliation would take some time. 'We are certainly taking it one step at a time . As I mentioned, the rule of law will never be compromised, and there is an ongoing investigation regarding the case that you mentioned,' said Canada's new Indian-origin foreign minister Anita Anand last month. The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
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First Post
42 minutes ago
- First Post
How Ukraine drone strikes deep inside Russia serves as a lesson for other countries
Ukraine's Operation Spider Web — a coordinated series of drone strikes — lays bare the gaps in airspace which can be used by any party with enough planning and the right technology. What Ukraine did was to combine the cheap drones in a way that existing systems could not prevent the attack, or maybe even see it coming read more Plumes of smoke are seen rising over the Belaya air base in the Irkutsk region in eastern Siberia after a Ukrainian drone attack in the Irkutsk region, more than 4,000 kilometres from Ukraine. AP Ukrainians are celebrating the success of one of the most audacious coups of the war against Russia – a coordinated drone strike on June 1 on five airbases deep inside Russian territory. Known as Operation Spider Web, it was the result of 18 months of planning and involved the smuggling of drones into Russia, synchronised launch timings and improvised control centres hidden inside freight vehicles. Ukrainian sources claim more than 40 Russian aircraft were damaged or destroyed. Commercial satellite imagery confirms significant fire damage, cratered runways, and blast patterns across multiple sites, although the full extent of losses remains disputed. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The targets were strategic bomber aircraft and surveillance planes, including Tu-95s and A-50 airborne early warning systems. The drones were launched from inside Russia and navigated at treetop level using line-of-sight piloting and GPS pre-programming. Each was controlled from a mobile ground station parked within striking distance of the target. It is reported that a total of 117 drones were deployed across five locations. While many were likely intercepted, or fell short, enough reached their targets to signal a dramatic breach in Russia's rear-area defence. The drone platforms themselves were familiar. These were adapted first-person-view (FPV) multirotor drones. These are ones where the operator gets a first-person perspective from the drone's onboard camera. These are already used in huge numbers along the front lines in Ukraine by both sides. But Operation Spider Web extended their impact through logistical infiltration and timing. Operation Spider Web exposes vulnerabilities Nations treat their airspace as sovereign, a controlled environment: mapped, regulated and watched over. Air defence systems are built on the assumption that threats come from above and from beyond national borders. Detection and response also reflect that logic. It is focused on mid and high-altitude surveillance and approach paths from beyond national borders. But Operation Spider Web exposed what happens when states are attacked from below and from within. In low-level airspace, visibility drops, responsibility fragments, and detection tools lose their edge. Drones arrive unannounced, response times lag, coordination breaks. Spider Web worked not because of what each drone could do individually, but because of how the operation was designed. It was secret and carefully planned of course, but also mobile, flexible and loosely coordinated. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A satellite image shows damage to aircraft at an airfield in Irkutsk, following Ukrainian drones attack targeting Russian military airfields, in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Stepnoy, Irkutsk region, Russia. Reuters The cost of each drone was low but the overall effect was high. This isn't just asymmetric warfare, it's a different kind of offensive capability – and any defence needs to adapt accordingly. On Ukraine's front lines, where drone threats are constant, both sides have adapted by deploying layers of detection tools, short range air defences and jamming systems. In turn, drone operators have turned to alternatives. One option is drones that use spools of shielded fibre optic cable. The cable is attached to the drone at one end and to the controller held by the operator at the other. Another option involves drones with preloaded flight paths to avoid detection. Fibre links, when used for control or coordination, emit no radio signal and so bypass radio frequency (RF) -based surveillance entirely. There is nothing to intercept or jam. Preloaded paths remove the need for live communication altogether. Once launched, the drone follows a pre-programmed route without broadcasting its position or receiving commands. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As a result, airspace is never assumed to be secure but is instead understood to be actively contested and requiring continuous management. By contrast, Operation Spider Web targeted rear area airbases where more limited adaptive systems existed. The drones flew low, through unmonitored gaps, exploiting assumptions about what kind of threat was faced and from where. Lessons to be learnt from Operation Spider Web Spider Web is not the first long-range drone operation of this war, nor the first to exploit gaps in Russian defences. What Spider Web confirms is that the gaps in airspace can be used by any party with enough planning and the right technology. They can be exploited not just by states and not just in war. The technology is not rare and the tactics are not complicated. What Ukraine did was to combine them in a way that existing systems could not prevent the attack or maybe even see it coming. This is far from a uniquely Russian vulnerability – it is the defining governance challenge of drones in low level airspace. Civil and military airspace management relies on the idea that flight paths are knowable and can be secured. In our work on UK drone regulation, we have described low level airspace as acting like a common pool resource. This means that airspace is widely accessible. It is also difficult to keep out drones with unpredictable flightpaths. Under this vision of airspace, it can only be meaningfully governed by more agile and distributed decision making. Operation Spider Web confirms that military airspace behaves in a similar way. Centralised systems to govern airspace can struggle to cope with what happens at the scale of the Ukrainian attacks – and the cost of failure can be strategic. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Improving low-level airspace governance will require better technologies, better detection and faster responses. New sensor technologies such as passive radio frequency detectors, thermal imaging, and acoustic (sound-based) arrays can help close current visibility gaps, especially when combined. But detection alone is not enough. Interceptors including capture drones (drones that hunt and disable other drones), nets to ensnare drones, and directed energy weapons such as high powered lasers are being developed and trialled. However, most of these are limited by range, cost, or legal constraints. Nevertheless, airspace is being reshaped by new forms of access, use and improvisation. Institutions built around centralised ideas of control; air corridors, zones, and licensing are being outpaced. Security responses are struggling to adapt to the fact that airspace with drones is different. It is no longer passively governed by altitude and authority. It must be actively and differently managed. Operation Spider Web didn't just reveal how Ukraine could strike deep into Russian territory. It showed how little margin for error there is in a world where cheap systems can be used quietly and precisely. That is not just a military challenge. It is a problem where airspace management depends less on central control and more on distributed coordination, shared monitoring and responsive intervention. The absence of these conditions is what Spider Web exploited. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Michael A. Lewis, Professor of Operations and Supply Management, University of Bath This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
NDTV
an hour ago
- NDTV
New Pro-Trump Poland President A Bad Omen For The EU, Ukraine And Women
Poland's presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow. The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%. The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe. With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms. This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland's judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court. Nawrocki's win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It's bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women. A Rising Poland For much of the post-second world war era, Poland has had limited European influence. This is no longer the case. Poland's economy has boomed since it joined the EU in 2004. It spends almost 5% of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Poland now has a bigger army than the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan's. Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU's centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe's future. Impacts On Ukraine Poland's new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia. This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent 'Coalition of the Willing' summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined the leaders of Europe's major powers – France, Germany and the UK – to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Poland's unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO. Nawrocki was also backed during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security, said at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland: Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country. Trump also hosted Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard US diplomatic protocol to stay out of foreign elections. Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland's geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea. I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap. This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania, which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It's seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states. Poland's conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support cutting off weapons to Ukraine. However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said Zelensky 'treats Poland badly', echoing the type of language used by Trump himself. Poland Divided The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout of almost 73%. There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland's harsh abortion laws – abortion was effectively banned in Poland under the Law and Justice government – and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples. Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them. While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country. As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki). After the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were hoping for a similar result in Poland, as well. That, for now, is a pipe dream and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.
