
Fed Must Contain Long-Term Inflation Expectations, Musalem Says
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials are focused on keeping long-run inflation expectations stable as businesses and consumers anticipate prices to rise in the near term.
'We at the Fed don't want short-term inflation expectations to rise to such a level that they could seep into long-term inflation expectations,' Musalem said Friday during an event in Bentonville, Arkansas. That, he added, 'would make our job harder in terms of achieving maximum employment and price stability.'
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Politico
42 minutes ago
- Politico
Why Trump can't have it both ways on rates
Presented by Editor's note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. Quick Fix President Donald Trump wants a strong labor market and low interest rates. Right now, those goals aren't compatible. Economists expect the Labor Department to report this morning that employers added 125,000 jobs last month. If the number exceeds expectations, it will be yet another sign of economic resilience despite the effects that Trump's trade agenda, market convulsions and touch-and-go recession fears have had on sentiment. It would be great news for a White House that has reveled in recent positive economic data and has sparred with Wall Street heavyweights or reporters who spotlight the risks posed by the president's agenda. But it would also give Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a case to hold rates higher for longer. Higher borrowing costs might help keep a lid on inflation — and further weaken rate-sensitive sectors like housing — until there's greater clarity on how tariffs ultimately affect consumer prices. The Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on June 18. Obviously, that's not what Trump wants. The president used this week's tepid private sector hiring report from the payroll processing firm ADP to lash out at the Fed chair — whom he's nicknamed 'TOO LATE' — and make a case for why he 'must now LOWER THE RATE.' And there are signs that the labor market is flagging. U.S. employers announced layoffs affecting nearly 94,000 positions last month — a 47 percent increase over April of last year, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Jobless claims for the week following the Memorial Day holiday jumped more than many economists had predicted, the government reported on Thursday. And the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and service sector employment indices were both in contraction territory in May. But if today's jobs report disappoints — EY's Gregory Daco sees job growth falling below 100,000 — it will be taken as a sign that Trump's trade agenda is starting to wear on employers. While a softening labor market increases the likelihood that Powell accelerates the timeline for rate cuts, it would also suggest the economy is in much worse shape than anyone in the White House would like. Trump would then face more political pressure — from both Wall Street and industry — to dial back his protectionist trade policies. Julien Lafargue, the chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, put it this way: 'Anything below the 100,000 mark could reignite recession fears while a stronger-than-expected print could perversely be negative for risk assets as it would likely put upward pressure on yields.' In other words, for Trump, the odds that he'll get a Goldilocks economy and low rates — soon — look slim. We'll see at 8:30 a.m. when the Labor Department puts out its report. IT'S FRIDAY — What are you looking for in the jobs report? Let me know. And as always, send your tips, suggestions and personnel moves to Sam at ssutton@ POLITICO PRO SPACE: Need an insider's guide to the politics behind the new space race? From battles over sending astronauts to Mars to the ways space companies are vying to influence regulators, this weekly newsletter decodes the personalities, policy and power shaping the final frontier. Find out more. 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TRADE CORNER Too much news — Before the Musk spat overtook the news cycle, Trump had a 'very good phone call' with Chinese leader Xi Jinping amid tense negotiations over tariffs and other trade barriers, per Megan Messerly, Phelim Kine, Ari Hawkins and Daniel Desrochers. — Treasury did not identify the country as a currency manipulator in its semi-annual report on the foreign exchange practices of major trading partners, Doug Palmer reports. Trade deficit falls — Doug also reports that the trade deficit fell sharply in April after hitting a record high in March. Talking Points First in MM: From Wall Street regulator to crypto lobbyist — In one of her first interviews as Blockchain Association CEO, Summer Mersinger, a former CFTC commissioner, spoke with Declan Harty about the critical but chaotic moment facing crypto in Washington today. The following is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. With the regulatory landscape shifting, how are you thinking about this moment for crypto in Washington? Just a year ago, there was this discussion around all the risks involved with blockchain and crypto, and now, we're at a point where Congress is on the cusp of passing a stablecoin bill. So it's a critical time for the industry. It's a critical time for the policymakers, and it's the opportunity that I think the industry needs to come together, be a unified voice and really push this forward so that the U.S. can become a global leader in this space. How do you hope to use your experience at the CFTC as you lead the Blockchain Association? My time at the CFTC taught me a lot about these markets and the ways that a well-regulated market functions. But if you go back further in my history, I came from Capitol Hill — that's where I spent most of my career. And I'm hoping that I can use those skills to really help BA and the members get that critical legislation accomplished. 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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Jobs data from May could show a mostly stable economy, but economists say Trump tariffs will soon bite
Signs are growing that President Donald Trump's unprecedented tariffs strategy is starting to take a bigger bite out of the U.S. economy. Still, the latest jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show some economic stability persisted into May. Forecasts were for 120,000 new payrolls added in the last month; most economists consider anything above 100,000 a healthy figure — though it would still represent the fewest monthly jobs created since February and fall below the recent 12-month average of about 150,000. Even if the job numbers beat forecasts, other data are already pointing to signs of a softening economy. On Wednesday, private payroll processor ADP reported the weakest monthly jobs total since March 2023. While economists say ADP's data often align with the official BLS data, the trend is clear, with ADP reporting fewer jobs added in five of the past seven months. A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that activity at U.S. service firms unexpectedly contracted last month for the first time in nearly a year, while hiring decelerated. On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, reaching their highest level since October — while continuing unemployment claims remained elevated, an indication that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job. 'We're throttling back — and the damage from the trade war is still coming,' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told NBC News. Zandi said forthcoming inflation readings are likely to reflect firms raising prices due to Trump's import taxes. Indeed, a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday indicated 'widespread reports' of companies 'expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward,' with higher tariffs 'putting upward pressure on costs and prices.' Separately, a Congressional Budget Office study now estimates inflation will increase by an average of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 as a result of Trump's tariffs. As prices begin to rise, consumer dollars won't go as far, Zandi said. That will likely lead to a feedback loop of reduced economic activity and reduced hiring. 'The job market already feels fragile,' he added. As demand softens 'more palpably,' Zandi said, 'we'll start to see layoffs' — with BLS jobs data likely falling consistently below 100,000 in the coming months. Already, firms are showing signs of holding back on investment and bringing on new workers. Earlier in the week, the BLS reported that the hiring rate remains stuck at levels last seen in 2014, when the U.S. economy was still emerging from the Great Recession. Trump has claimed that thanks to his tariffs, the U.S. economy is 'booming.' Yet he continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would make it easier for businesses and consumers to borrow money. In a post on Truth Social Wednesday, he pointed to the weak ADP payrolls numbers as evidence that the economy needs support. Analysts say that despite the gathering signs of economic deterioration, the bar remains high for the Federal Reserve to lower rates. Instead, the central bank will likely continue to err on the side of keeping interest rates elevated to ensure the pace of price growth remains under control, said Andrew Husby, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas financial group. For consumers, that means relief is still not in sight. 'It's going to take something obviously cracking in a sustained way' for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, Husby said. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
A Fed rate cut would be a 'happy pill' for markets: Strategist
Wall Street will be watching for the latest labor data in Friday's jobs report for the month of May as investors speculate on what could be the next economic catalyst to encourage the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in 2025. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach and Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek sit down with Madison Mills to discuss what a rate cut would mean for markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC, ^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) and the inflation pressures the Fed is navigating while waiting for fresh data. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. How big of a catalyst might a Fed cut coming sooner rather than later be for this market? Well, it would certainly be a happy pill for the market. Uh, a lot of the challenges that we're all looking at for the markets right now, unfortunately lower Fed funds rates are not going to necessarily help any of those challenges. However, markets ultimately always like lower rates and clearly if the Fed did do something, it would certainly send a positive signal to the market and maybe improve sentiment in the market. Jeffrey, I want to bring you back in on exactly what Mark was just saying, what would it take for the Fed to cut sooner rather than later? How bad would the economic data have to look? Well, you know, I think the Fed is really focusing on these nagging inflation pressures. You know, I referenced just a little bit ago the ISM surveys report as it relates to employment. You know, from the most recent ISM report on business that we just got two days ago, input costs are still rising pretty significantly. So that's a real concern. So the Fed is in the wait and see mode. Interestingly enough, it's it's possible that firms are in the wait and see mode too as well. Going back to labor market numbers, it seems as if firms are not interested in necessarily adding strongly to payrolls, but they're also conversely not really interested in shedding payrolls. You don't really see uh, the firings increase as well, right? The hirings and the firings, they're they're kind of static at this point. Wait and see. I think back to the original question here on when and if the Fed will act, they're certainly not going to act uh, in this upcoming meeting. Uh, it's there's a chance that they actually hold in July as well if the inflation numbers are still elevated and payrolls continue to show some stability. Mark, do you agree with that path forward for the Fed? Yeah, I I think so. I think, you know, our base case is still about two cuts for later on this year, although there was a little bit of a bump the other day in Fed funds futures. We saw that as a result of the numbers that we got, the ADP numbers. Uh, but I think at this point, they can afford to wait and I think that's the mode that they're in. Um, it's interesting though, if we look at some of the behind the scenes commentary from the Fed, such as the Beige Book, and also we saw the meeting minutes earlier in the month, there are concerns amongst the Fed. Although, whether they act on them now or later, it's more likely going to be later. And we're still focusing on two even though the market's starting to inch into possibly three when we look at futures at least. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data