Bullseye for severe storms Thursday moves closer to the Twin Cities
Severe storms could come in the form of two rounds Thursday. The first could be leftovers from a line of storms in South Dakota early Thursday morning, and the second could be redevelopment in the afternoon across eastern parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin.
The Twin Cities are on the line of a marginal and slight risk (levels 1 and 2 on the severe scale), while the bullseye is a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk in Wisconsin.
Below is the previous severe weather outlook for Thursday. Clearly, the Storm Prediction Center is sensing a northwesterly shift in the area of concern.
"Models are in good agreement depicting a strong convective signal near the MN/WI border by [3 p.m. CT] or so, with increasing coverage points east through evening," says the Storm Prediction Center.
The SPC says all of the signals at this time point to supercell storms in the enhanced risk area, including potential for a strong tornado.
The high-resolution models aren't quite picking up on the potential storm evolution for Thursday afternoon just yet, but the European model's lightning simulation suggests there could be an arc of storms moving southwest to northeast across southeastern Minnesota into the enhanced risk in Wisconsin.
The Significant Tornado Parameter from the HRRR, which only goes out through 1 p.m. Thursday, and the NAM 3km model, are somewhat similar, though the NAM 3km is a bit further east with the better environment for tornadoes. This can and likely will change over the next 48 hours.
Thursday isn't the only day for severe weather. Wednesday could see storms spark in the Dakotas, and those cells could track into southwestern Minnesota overnight into Thursday morning.
Here's the HRRR model's radar simulation from 3 p.m. Wednesday through 1 p.m. Thursday. You can see a bowing line of storms blasting through South Dakota and moving near the Minnesota-Iowa border by early Thursday.
How long that line of storms stick around on Thursday will likely play a big role in determining where severe weather is most likely with redevelopment Thursday afternoon.
We'll keep you updated as the forecast changes.
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