Tim Tszyu Vs. Joey Spencer: Odds, Records, Prediction

Forbes

05-04-2025

It would have been almost unfathomable to say this a year ago, but Tim Tszyu is on a two-fight losing streak and his career is on the line against one-time prospect Joey Spencer. But that's the truth, and the way Tszyu responds in the ring on Saturday night will go a long way toward figuring out whether he's still a legitimate junior middleweight contender. Here's everything you need to know about Tim Tszyu vs. Joey Spencer, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.
In March 2024, Tsyzu was an undefeated titlist, and in the first few minutes of his defense against Sebastian Fundora, Tszyu was outboxing the much taller Fundora en route to what looked like another victory. But then Tszyu's head collided with Fundora's forearm in the second round, opening one of the nastiest cuts you'll see. Tszyu and his corner elected to continue the fight, and, hindered by the blood in his face throughout the next 10 rounds, Tszyu lost his belt and his undefeated record.
Seven months later, Tszyu, a 7/1 favorite, was surprisingly dominated and knocked out by Bakhram Murtazaliev, leaving many boxing observers to wonder what had happened to Tszyu and his career? Was he always a little overrated? Was he already feeling the effects of 25 fights over eight years? Was he ever going to get over his head clash with Fundora?
Now, it appears that Tszyu, at least on paper, is getting a softer touch in front of his home country fans in Australia on Saturday night (Sunday afternoon local time). Tszyu is ready for it—and he's not thinking about Spencer as a warmup fighter.
'This is my redemption tour,' said Tszyu. 'I'm coming back stronger, hungrier and ready to prove a point. There's no easing back in—no tune-up fights—just straight into the fire with a very, very good fighter in Joey Spencer. He's a real fighter, a dangerous opponent and exactly the kind of challenge I crave . . . I'm here to make a statement. If I have to walk through fire to get back on top, so be it. This is what I live for.'
Spencer, meanwhile, is getting another chance on a big stage. The first time he got the chance, he feel short vs. Jesus Ramos Jr. He said he'll be better prepared this time.
'I've watched Tszyu for a long time — his style, his mentality. The guy's a real warrior,' said Spencer. 'He's the kind of fighter who doesn't back down. He takes on all comers, no excuses, he just gets in there and fights … I'm coming to take him out. I'm not here just to share the ring with him. I'm coming to win. Period.'
Here's more info on the Tim Tszyu vs. Joey Spencer showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Amazon Prime Video (free for subscribers) beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.
As a -1000 betting favorite (bet $1,000 to win $100), you can safely avoid wagering on Tszyu's money line, and I'd probably avoid Spencer to win straight up at +550 (win $550 on a $100 bet). But if you like Tszyu, you could take him to win by stoppage at -140 or by decision at +175. Both provide a little bit of value. If you like Spencer, I'd take him to win by stoppage at +1000 since there are questions about Tszyu's chin.
If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend's action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Tszyu to beat Spencer by stoppage at -140, Richard Torrez Jr. to beat Guido Vianello at -275 and Zhanibek Aliimkhanuly to beat Anauel Ngamissengue at -800. If all those hit, you'd win $163 on a $100 bet.
Before his two losses, Tszyu (24-2, 17 KOs) had built a solid resume with wins vs. Jeff Horn, Terrell Gausha, Tony Harrison and Carlos Ocampo. But he also hasn't yet beaten an A-level fighter who's in his prime. A victory vs. Spencer won't necessarily change that, but if he beats Spencer (and Keith Thurman in the future), that would certainly get him back on track.
Spencer (19-1, 11 KOs) has a decent record for a prospect, but it's hard to look at this resume and think he has a good chance to beat Tszyu. In his toughest fight, he lost by seventh-round TKO to Jesus Ramos Jr.. Spencer has won three-straight fights, though it's come against underwhelming competition.
This is designed to be a get-well fight for Tszyu, and I fully expect him to outclass Spencer. Depending on whether he dispatches Spencer with ease could certainly tell us about Tszyu's future. But I think he'll impress. Say Tszyu by stoppage in the fifth round.