The SNP's current strategy is political suicide – what needs to change

The National

5 hours ago

THE independence movement is at a critical juncture. The SNP, as its leading political arm, is struggling to convince even its most loyal supporters that it has a serious plan for delivering independence.
Yet, because the SNP dominates the movement so completely, to the average voter outside the independence bubble, the SNP is the independence movement. This creates a dangerous negative cycle: when the SNP fails to visibly campaign for independence, voters subconsciously reduce the independence cause to whatever policy debates the SNP is currently mired in, such as gender reforms, ferry delays, court cases, or bottle return schemes etc.
The SNP then conducts polls to gauge the public's priorities and finds, unsurprisingly, that immediate governance issues and hardships like the cost of living crisis dominate voters' concerns, not independence. So, the party campaigns on those issues and reinforces the perception that these are what the independence movement stands for.
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As a result 'Now is not the time to talk about independence' becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, and the SNP loses because it campaigns on the wrong issues.
That is why a focus on good governance alone can't deliver independence. Majoring on devolved governance keeps the ambitions of the nation small and limited to the powers of Holyrood, so the people look for small solutions. The Scottish Government must engage the nation in a new national conversation, a Citizens' Convention, to craft a compelling vision of a better Scotland. We need to raise the Scottish peoples' ambitions to those of a people of a sovereign independent nation.
A Crisis of Faith in the SNP
Turnout among pro-indy voters falls if independence is not the central issue, conversely UK-wide politics then becomes the focus. If voters think in Westminster terms about 'stopping Reform', then Labour becomes the answer, just as they were seen as the solution to getting rid of the Tories in the last General Election.
Keir Starmer won the 2024 General Election campaigning on an anti-Tory messageThe SNP's current strategy of prioritising good governance under devolution is failing because, without linking it to the bigger prize of independence, it limits ambition. It reduces Scotland's political discourse to managerial tweaks rather than transformational change.
What's needed is a reset. A Citizens' Convention and a renewed national conversation about Scotland's economic, social and environmental wellbeing must become the focus, not to endlessly debate independence, but to shift public imagination toward the kind of future only independence can deliver.
The SNP's Make or Break Moment
The next few weeks will be the most critical for the independence movement in a decade. If the SNP missteps at this weekend's National Council meeting, the independence cause will be set back by at least five years, and Anas Sarwar will be in prime position to become Scotland's next First Minister.
On June 21, the SNP National Council will meet, and John Swinney will outline his vision for delivering independence. The meeting will conclude with a 'no holds barred' debate, which may reveal just how out of step the SNP leadership is, not just with voters, but with its own activists.
Doubling Down on a Losing Strategy
Even since Labour's Hamilton by-election victory, the SNP leadership seem determined to cling to a strategy that has already failed.
First Minister John Swinney stands in front of a poster of SNP candidate Katy Loudon (Image: PA) After the loss, Martin Geissler confronted John Swinney with a glaring contradiction: while independence polls consistently sit above 50%, the SNP secured less than 30% of the vote.
Swinney's response? 'My challenge is to turn the public's aspiration for independence into real political action.'
Great – we can all agree. But then, he added: 'And that comes about by the SNP performing much better, of getting into a commanding position in Scottish politics, and making sure that we can deliver on the expectations and aspirations of the people of Scotland.'
This is the fatal misread that opens the door to a Labour win. The polls overstate the SNP vote because fewer independence supporters than predicted will actually bother to vote.
Why Good Governance Alone Won't Win Independence
Politics has changed. Policy statements no longer inspire; emotions drive votes. A government can tick every box on paper and still lose if voters don't feel the difference in their daily lives. Joe Biden tamed inflation and grew the US economy, yet voters punished the Democrats because their own lived-experience did not improve.
I've said it publicly – and also privately to SNP leaders: campaigning on 'good governance' under a devolved system, one that stifles ambition, restricts budgets, and limits power, is political suicide.
Independence is the Radical Change Scotland Needs
People see the global political and economic order crumbling. They feel the bite of austerity and despair for the future. They are desperate for change, and desperate voters will rally behind whomever offers radical change. In England, Reform now fills that void; in Scotland, the SNP is increasingly seen as offering nothing but managed decline.
For two Hamilton by-elections in a row, the SNP missed the opportunity to motivate its activists and get its vote out by making the contest about independence. There was almost no mention of independence from the SNP or candidate Katy Louden in either losing campaign.
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Where was the call to arms for the Yes movement? Where was the message that voting Labour isn't the answer, because only independence will end austerity and the cost of living crisis for good?
Where was the 'golden thread' of independence that is supposed to run through every SNP campaign?
The Missing Link: A Citizens' Convention
Hundreds of activists pounded the streets of Hamilton for independence, and I feel gutted for them as thousands of independence voters sat on their hands and didn't vote. But has the SNP got their message?
The party refused to centre the campaign on independence, the radical change people are crying out for. Without that galvanising message, why would pro independence voters turn out for the SNP?
Labour Will Win Holyrood 2026 Unless the SNP Offers Radical Change.
The analysis everyone seems to have missed is this: if the SNP fails to offer radical change through independence, voters will drift to Labour. Why? Because they will mistakenly believe that a Scottish Labour first minister might wield some influence with an all powerful Labour Government in Westminster – unlike the SNP, which is simply ignored.
The SNP's choice is stark: refocus on Scotland and the benefits of independence, or risk losing Holyrood 2026 to Labour and Sarwar. The clock is ticking.